Energy Security in South Asia Opportunities & Challenges

1,113 views

Published on

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,113
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
151
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
58
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Energy Security in South Asia Opportunities & Challenges

  1. 1. ENERGY SECURITY INSOUTH ASIAO PPORTUNITIES & C HALLENGES Engr. Khondkar Abdus Saleque (Peng & FIEB)
  2. 2. ENERGY SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA Introduction 4/3/2013 Energy Demands, Potential and Scenario Engr. Saleque Challenges for Energy Sector in South Asia Opportunities, Prospects & Challenges Way out (suggestions and recommendations) 2
  3. 3. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque 3 Introduction
  4. 4. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque 4MAP OF SOUTH ASIA…
  5. 5. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque 5…MAP OF SOUTH ASIA
  6. 6. SOUTH ASIA: SOME FACTS Population: About 25%  GDP Growth Rate: 4/3/2013 of the world’s population Afghanistan- 8% [about 1.56 billion].  India- 6 % to 9% Engr. Saleque Total land: 4% [about Bangladesh- 6% to 6.5% 5.142 million Sq Km,] of Bhutan- 6% all land surface on the  Maldives, Nepal, earth. Pakistan & Sri Lanka - GDP : 2.1% of the world 3.5% to 5%. GDP. GNI (except Maldives): Only US$ 524, Highest GNI Qatar US$ 98,948 in 2011. 6
  7. 7. ENERGY SECURITY & ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT It is estimated that  is directly related to 4/3/2013 every 1% growth in economic GDP creates 1.5% development, a Engr. Saleque growth in energy precondition for demand. confronting Energy Security unemployment  helps in sustainable issues and poverty quality energy alleviation, supply accessible to the people at affordable cost, 7
  8. 8. 4/3/2013 Energy Demand, Engr. SalequePotential & Scenario 8
  9. 9. ASIA’S ENERGY DEMAND (MTOE) AND GROWTH RATE (%)FORECAST 2019-2020Country Electricity Oil product Gas (Mtoe) Coal (Mtoe) (Bkwh) (Mtoe)Afghanistan 3.88 (13.1%) 3.48 (19.1%) 0.92 (14.5%) 0.0 (0.0%)Bangladesh 72.79 (8.2%) 11.60 (7.3%) 44.03 (11.0%) 0.9 (3.7%)Bhutan 6.88 (15.0%) 0.62 (16.0%) 0.0 (0.0%) 0.11 (16.0%)India 1756 (7.1%) 246.9 (4.8%) 101.8 (8.0%) 447.6 (6.2%)Maldives 1.57 (5.9%) 1.66 (12.0%) 0.0 (0.0%) 0.0 (0.0%)Nepal 8.08 (8.0%) 1.61 (4.9%) 0.0 (0.0%) 0.78 (10.0%)Pakistan 251.06 (7.5%) 30.94 (4.5%) 72.75 (6.2%) 13.9 (9.4%)Sri Lanka 23.87 (7.2%) 7.82 (6.2%) 0.0 (0.0%) 7.0 (-)Note: Figures in parenthesis refer to percentage growth rate for the forecast period 2003/04-2019/20. : NEXANT, August 2005.
  10. 10. INSTALLED CAPACITY MWCountries Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Maldives Pakistan Sri LankaFuel TypeThermal 115 6000+ 17 123,759 54 200 13,978 2291Coal NA 200 NA 105,437 NA NA NA 900Gas NA 5,580 NA 18,095 NA NA 6,094 NAOil 115 2,315 17 1200 54 200 7,855 1381Hydro 374 220 1,488 38,848 667 NA 6,481 1368Nuclear NA NA NA 4780 NA NA 462 NARenewable NA 75 0.5 22,233 NA NA 38Total 489 8,390 1505.5 189,620 714 200 21,021 3687Dependable 7,500 1,505 170,000 400- 180 14,000 2,500-Generation 700 3,500
  11. 11. POWER: GENERATION, CONSUMPTIONCountry Population Electricity Electricity Generation Consumption (Gwh)/Annual (Gwh)/AnnualAfghanistan 29,835,392 754 231Bangladesh 15,25,18,015 35,1188 (F2012) 29,850 (F2012)Bhutan 708,427 2,000 184India 1,210,198,422 1,920,792 905,974Nepal 26,620,999 2,511 2,525Maldives 394,999 169 *542Pakistan 177,100,000 90,400 68,550Sri Lanka 20,238,000 9,507 7,885
  12. 12. MTOE Primary Energy Demand of SAARC Region 52% of Primary Energy would be utilized to meet the Demand of Electricity
  13. 13. COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS OIL Consumption dominates the most countries - 100% in Maldives, 30% in Bhutan, India & Pakistan, others 60% - 80% GAS dominates in Pakistan & Bangladesh. COAL dominates in India 14
  14. 14. ENERGY RESOURCE IN SAARCCountries Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Pakistan Maldives Nepal Sri LankaCoal (Million 440 3300 2 90085 17550 NA NA NATonnes)Gas TCF 15 20.5 NA 39 33 NA NA NAOil Million Barrels NA 55 NA 5700 324 NA NA 150Hydro MW 25,000 330 30,000 150,000 50,000 NA 42,000 2,000Biomass Million NA NI 26.6 139 NI 0.06 27.04 12Tonnes Bangladesh Use 55 Million Tonnes of Biomass Annually.
  15. 15. PRIMARY RESOURCE POTENTIAL 4/3/2013 Coal (MT)  Natural Gas (TCF)  India-56.50  India-37.26 Engr. Saleque  Pakistan-3.45  Bangladesh-8.52  Afghanistan-4.4  Pakistan 32.28  Bangladesh- 8.8  Hydropower (MW) Oil (Billion barrels)  India -40,000  India - 5.5  Nepal and Bhutan  Afghanistan-75 has substantial  Pakistani-353 potential of Hydropower 16
  16. 16. SCENARIO… Optimal development of the regions 4/3/2013 internal energy resources is hampered. Access to the significant energy resources Engr. Saleque in the neighboring countries is denied. This increases the cost of energy supply. It reduces energy security of the individual countries and of the region as a whole. High technical & commercial losses. Poor commercial performance of service providers. 17
  17. 17. …SCENARIO National energy systems are weak or have non-existent interconnections. 4/3/2013 Poor Governance and Corruption impede growth and professional development . Engr. Saleque Absence of rational pricing of energy and effective regulatory oversight creates inefficiency and wastage. Little cross-border trade in electricity [except India-Bhutan trade]. No cross-border trade in natural gas. 18
  18. 18. 4/3/2013Challenges for the Engr. Saleque Energy Sector in South Asia 19
  19. 19. CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH ASIA … Countries in South Asia are facing a triple challenges of energy security, climate change 4/3/2013 and energy access E.g., energy access in India is only about 67%, Engr. Saleque  which means about 400 million people are without access. Access situation is even worse in other countries in South Asia. Mobilization of resources for energy infrastructure is a huge challenge. 20
  20. 20. …CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH ASIA… 4/3/2013 Latent demand & supply energy gap is a major energy security issue for the region Engr. Saleque despite its fastest growing GDP growth rate of about 6%. International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected highest growth rate of energy consumption by 2020 in South Asia. 21
  21. 21. …CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH ASIA… Despite impressive macro-economic growth, 4/3/2013 the energy sector in South Asia:  has failed to keep pace with economic Engr. Saleque growth,  faces chronic supply shortage and poor quality of service,  cannot ensure access to commercial energy sources to half of the 1.56 million people. Energy constraints, on the average, restricts GDP Growth by 2% - 3%. 22
  22. 22. …CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH ASIA Appropriate Energy sector reforms are 4/3/2013 essential for ensuring sustained growth of the sector and optimal development Engr. Saleque through –  improving the efficiency and quality of service,  commercial viability of energy industry,  institutional and governance arrangements,  accountability of service providers and investment climate 23
  23. 23. 4/3/2013Opportunities, Engr. Saleque Prospects & Challenges 24
  24. 24. OPPORTUNITIES: IN THE REGION AND THE NEIGHBOURING AREAS… The following factors create significant opportunities for 4/3/2013 cooperation and trade in the energy sector in South Asia  Variety of resource endowments, Engr. Saleque  Development needs,  Demand patterns among the countries in the region and its neighborhood,  Necessity to create worlds largest integrated energy market due to presence of energy resource surplus countries –  Nepal, Bhutan in SA region,  Central Asian countries, Iran, Myanmar in the neighborhood.  Benefit from energy export-led growth and implementation of large-scale regional projects 25
  25. 25. …OPPORTUNITIES: IN THE REGIONAND THE NEIGHBOURING AREAS. Iran has the highest reserve of natural gas, 4/3/2013 Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Myanmar Engr. Saleque have also substantial reserve of natural gas, Iran has quite substantial oil reserve . Kazakhstan and Myanmar has also substantial oil deposit, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have substantial coal reserve, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Myanmar have huge potential of hydropower. 26
  26. 26. PROSPECTS FOR TRADE IN EASTERN PART OF SAARCImporter India Bhutan Nepal B’desh S. Lanka Myanmar 4/3/2013 Engr. SalequeIndia Hydro Hydro Peak Power Gas & Gas & Power power power support Power X Resourc e and Small amountBhutan seasona Unlikely, of Thermal Dry Time l Small Power and Gas No Scope support X shortag Market Via India e Similar Small amount Thermal Resource of ThermalNepal Power ,Dry and Power and Gas Season No Scope Unlikely 27 seasonal X Via India support shortage
  27. 27. PROSPECTS FOR TRADE IN EASTERNPART OF SAARCImporters Sri Lanka Myanmar Bhutan B’desh Nepal India 4/3/2013 Engr. SalequeBangladesh Sharing Hydropo Hydropo Reserves, wer Via wer Via Electricity X No Scope Unlikely India India Swap. Dry SeasonSri Lanka and Thermal Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely X Unlikely Power supportMyanmar Uncompe Uncompetiti Uncompe 28 No Scope titive ve No Scope X titive
  28. 28. PROSPECTS FOR TRADE SAARC Turkme AfghanisImporter CARs Iran Pakistan India nistan tan Some 4/3/2013Central Gas LimitedAsian Export & X Unlikely No Scope Emergenc No ScopeRegions mutual y Support Engr. Saleque(CARs) electricit y support MutualTurkmeni Electricity X No Scope No Scope No Scope No Scopestan Support Limited Power Power No ScopeIran Export Exports Ongoing Possible Power Power Power Small Export Export Export cross OngoingAfghanist Ongoing Ongoing border No Scope and Xan and and Should Power 29 Should Should Grow Export Grow Grow Possible
  29. 29. PROSPECTS FOR TRADE SAARCImportin Turkmenist Afghanis Pakista CARs Iran India g an tan n 4/3/2013 Significan t Potential Engr. Saleque for gas Mutual No scope , Potential Significant export , Short Transit ofPakistan Power Potential for cross X Term electricity Exports Gas Export border support and Gas electricity in power trade could grow Mutual Significan short t term Gas, Significant No Scope Potential trading India power Potential for ,Transit X for Gas support export Gas Export of Gas Export in power 30 , transit of gas
  30. 30. SOME REGIONAL PROJECTS:PROSPECTS Import of hydropower from Central Asia 4/3/2013 to Afghanistan and Pakistan; Regional Trade of hydropower from Nepal Engr. Saleque and Bhutan through electricity interconnections between India - Sri Lanka and India - Bangladesh; Gas imports from Central Asia [TAPI], Iran {IPI}, and Myanmar [Myanmar to India Pipeline Across Bangladesh] 31
  31. 31. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque 32IPI PIPELINE…
  32. 32. …IPI PIPELINES… Conceptualized in 1950s by a Pakistani civil engineer and conceived by Indian and Iranians 4/3/2013 in 1989, preliminary agreement was signed in 1995 between Iran and Pakistan Engr. Saleque   1999 between India and Iran 2775 KM [1724 Miles] 56” OD Trans- border Gas Transmission Pipeline . Design Capacity : 4 BCM Discharge : 1 Tcf per annum National Iranian Oil Company, Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Companies, Sui Southern Gas Company, GAZPROM 33
  33. 33. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque 34TAPI PIPELINES…
  34. 34. …TAPI PIPELINES…A Gas Pipeline Framework Agreement, signed by representatives of the four 4/3/2013 participating nations on April 25, 2008 in Islamabad, envisaged construction to start in Engr. Saleque 2010, supplying gas by 2015.  1,000-mile route from Central to South Asia - Turkmenistan (Dauletabad) – Afghanistan (Heart, Helmand – Kandahar) – Pakistan (Quetta and Multan) – India (Fazilka).  ADB on the basis of its study reported that the estimated capital cost was $7.6 billion and it would consider financing the project 35
  35. 35. …TAPI PIPELINES 4/3/2013 Four country framework agreement installed. India and Pakistan signed GPSA with Engr. Saleque Turkmenistan Transit tariff agreement among transit countries were under negotiation But in efforts to attract investors for build, own and operate the about 8 Billion dollar pipeline the project sponsor ADB got very poor response. 36
  36. 36. ROADBLOCKS IN TRANSBORDERENERGY TRADE Geopolitics 4/3/2013 Bilateral political irritants – Border disputes, Water sharing issues, etc. Engr. Saleque Lack of political will and commitment Insurgency and security concerns Absence of effective independent regulatory institutions for creating level play ground for private and public sector companies. Lack of effective public –private partnership. Corruption and political interference 37
  37. 37. 4/3/2013 Suggestions & Engr. SalequeRecommendations 38
  38. 38. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS South Asian countries 4/3/2013  Need to institutionalize an integrated energy planning approach (IEPA); Engr. Saleque  Need to undertake serious efforts and appropriate measures to improve energy efficiency at all levels;  Need to take appropriate measures to reduce demand for liquid fuel for saving money and protecting environment from carbon emission; 39
  39. 39. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Need to harness hydro-power 4/3/2013  potentials in Pakistan, India, Nepal and Bhutan on priority over other Engr. Saleque commercial energy sources;  Need to avail the benefits of importing energy from neighboring countries, especially from Central Asia, Tran and Myanmar through establishing gas and power grid connected to Central Asia and South Asia 40
  40. 40. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Need to implement reforms in the sector 4/3/2013 through  segregation of the regulatory functions Engr. Saleque from the government and vesting them in an independent regulatory commission,  Unbundling the various activities of vertically into distinct and separate units based on functions,  Tariff reforms  Private sector participation 41
  41. 41. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Sharing Knowledge and Expertise 4/3/2013  Easing Visa formalities for Energy Professionals and experts of South Engr. Saleque Asian Country nationals  Creation and accessibility of regional energy data base  Exploring funding for clean technologies 42
  42. 42. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS… Action Plan 4/3/2013  Setting up a South Asian Engr. Saleque Regional Energy Foundation with Government and representatives  Setting up a South Asian Investment Promotion Fund 43
  43. 43. ….SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Settingup a mechanism to study 4/3/2013 in details and report on desirability and feasibility of: Engr. Saleque  Regional energy grid  Regional gas grid  Regional petroleum strategic reserve  South Asian Citizen’s Forum of Energy 44

×