Energy cooperation with asia prof. mazdeh

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Energy cooperation with asia prof. mazdeh

  1. 1. Energy Cooperation within Asia: Opportunities and Threats Abolghasem Mahdavi Mazdeh 1
  2. 2. Brief Content IntroductionGlobal and Asian Demand and Supply of EnergyGeopolitics of Energy and Energy Security (World & Asia)The Role of China, India and IranA Thorough Inference of Opportunities and Threats: A Hypothetical of Model of CooperationConclusions 2
  3. 3. Introduction Increasing Energy Revenue in Producing Countries Consumption Public Budget Energy Energy Security as a strategic Good Role of Energy in the Exhaustibility Consuming Countries Industrial Path 3
  4. 4. Global and Asian Demand and Supply of Energy Table 1. World and Asia Production and Consumption of Oil Oil (Thousand 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Barrels Daily) World Production 84603.24 84675.06 84591.88 85577.26 84419.02 86790.35 Asia Production 45781.73 45846.64 45701.27 47018.06 45910.47 47554.67World Consumption 84086.68 85164.79 85760.64 85436.28 84683.31 87027.2Asia Consumption 33947.49 34876.9 35366.69 36107.32 36874.37 38646.93Source: EIA (2011) Asia’s Share of Oil Production and Consumption of the World are respectively %54 and %44 in 2010 4
  5. 5. Table 2. World and Asia Production and Consumption of Gas Gas (Billion 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cubic Feet) World 99791.59 103423.3 105630.8 108049.7 104786.6 112089.9 Production Asia 51571.38 53926.75 55719.61 56235.26 54238.41 59860.91 Production World 101831.8 104063.1 107627 110914.9 107244.9 115453.9 Consumption Asia 47263.12 49222 51568.75 53429.44 52032.22 57250.4 ConsumptionSource: EIA (2011)Asia’s Share of Gas Production and Consumption of the World are respectively %53 and %49 in 2010 5
  6. 6. Geopolitics of Energy and Energy Security (World & Asia) Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1990 - 2035 (quadrillion Btu) Source: International Energy Outlook (IEO 2010) Fossil Fuels have a high share in the energy consuming basket of the World 6
  7. 7. USAEurope Caspian Sea (%17 Oil & %46 gas Reserves) Iran China & India Persian Gulf (%55 Oil & %40 Gas Reserves) Strategic Ellipse of Energy 7
  8. 8. Table 3. Reserves and Production of Oil and Gas in Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea (2010) Oil Natural Gas Proved Proved Production Production Reserves Reserves (TB per Day) (BCF) ((BB ((TCF Persian Gulf 747.854 24795.87 2631.585 16039.23 Bahrain 0.12456 46.43458 3.25 432.6088 Iran 137.62 4251.58 1045.67 5161.287 Iraq 115 2408.465 111.94 46.01545 Kuwait 104 2450.37 63.5 414.3509 Oman 5.5 867.87601 30 957.0365 Qatar 25.41 1437.224 899.325 4121.261 Saudi Arabia 262.4 10521.0885 263.5 3095.713 United Arab Emirate 97.8 2812.8372 214.4 1810.953 Caspian Sea 235.814 17288.04 3170.67 30695 Azerbaijan 7 1040.91895 30 588.9129 Kazakhstan 30 1610.45847 85 306.7814 Russia 60 10124.06 1680 20915.44 Turkmenistan 0.6 202.37694 265 1599.77 Uzbekistan 0.594 105.49503 65 2122.82 8 Iran 137.62 4251.58 1045.67 5161.287
  9. 9. The Role of China, India and Iran 1) China Figure 2. Energy Consumption in China, % of Total (2010) Renewable Energy (%0.49) Nuclear Energy Oil (% 17.62) (%0.68) Gas (%4.03) Coal (%70.45) Hydro Electricity (%6.7) Source: BP, Statistical Review of World energy (2011) In China, Oil with %17.62 of total energy consumed is in the second place after coal 9
  10. 10. Figure 3. The Trend of Consumption and Production of Oil in China, 2000-10 10000 Thousand Barrels per Day Consumption 8000 6000 4000 2000 Production 0 2003 2000 2001 2002 3004 2007 2005 2008 2009 2010 2006 year Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy (2010) In China, the rate of increase in consumption of oil is %90 but the rate of increase in production is %25 in 2000-2010 10
  11. 11. 2) India Figure 4. Energy consumption in India, % of Total (2010) Renewable Energy (%0.95) Nuclear Energy Oil (% 29.66) (%0.99) Coal (%52.96) Gas (%10.62) Hydro Electricity (%4.8) Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy In India, Oil with %29.66 of total energy consumed is in the second place after coal 11
  12. 12. Figure 5. The Trend of Consumption and Production of Oil in India 2000-10, 3500 Thousand Barrels per Day Consumption 3000 2500 2000 1500 Production 1000 500 0 2001 2003 2002 2008 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2006 2000 yearSource: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy (2010) In India, the rate of increase in consumption of oil is %46.7 but the rate of increase in production is %13.7 in 2000-2010 12
  13. 13. 3- Iran Geopolitical Center of Strategic Situation Ellipse of EnergyImportance of Iran Easiest, Shortest & Energy Transit the Least Cost Way 13
  14. 14. Table 4. Reserves and Production of Oil and Gas in Iran, Shares in the Middle East and Asia Share of Share of Share of Share of Middle Middle Proved Reserves Asia Production Asia East East (%) (%) (%) (%) 4251 137.62 Thousand)Oil 18.2 15 16.6 9 ( Billion Barrels) ( Barrels Per day 1045.67 5161.2Gas Trillion Cubic) 39 19.5 Billion Cubic) 30 8.6 (Feet (FeetSource: EIA 14
  15. 15. India’s Foreign policy with Respect to USA Tension of Main Problems of Tension ofIran & USA ICI Cooperation India & Pakistan Competition between China & India 15
  16. 16. A Thorough Inference of Opportunities and Threats: A Hypothetical Model of Cooperation 1.Energy is a political commodity 2. Asia is itself a record growth continent 3.Energy security problems cannot be solved within Asia 4. Collective action is needed for stability & sustainability of development of the countries 5. There are historical differences, cultural diversities and different political practices in Asia 16
  17. 17. Figure6. A Hypothetical Model of Energy Cooperation in Asia Problem: Lack of Energy Cooperation in Asia (ECA) Possible Causes Price Stability Economic Suppliers Eco. Goals Iran SLOC Geographical Corridors Security Cooperation ECA Territorial Political ICIExist. Inst.s Coordination China & IndiaNew Inst.s Sustainability Environmental Demanders 17
  18. 18. Conclusions Fast growing rate of demand for energy in Asia necessitates a serious plan for energy. Geopolitics of energy in the world demands a greater attention to the role ofIran on the supply side and China and India on the demand side. A comprehensive Understanding of opportunities and threats in the area ofenergy implies to level up the degree of cooperation in Asia.The potentials for Energy Cooperation in Asia (ECA) can be actualizedprimarily through a cooperation between Iran, China and India (ICI). 18
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