Our narrator is a 72-year old (born in2012) whose health is failing, but who has recognised that he “may be one of the last historians to have the chance to capture the effects of the first truly global disaster in humanhistory”. The date is a nod to Orwell’s dystopian 20th century classic.Our fictional narrator has spent several years making contactwith survivors scattered around the world, each recalling thecircumstances that befell them and their communities drawnfrom New York city, Miami, Bangladesh, Tuvalu, Rotterdam,Phoenix, Arizona, Switzerland, India, Pakistan and Canada. Borrowing a line from Thomas Hobbes, human existence has once again become “poor, nasty, brutish and short” – and not just for some.
2084Looking back at 2012, the year of his birth, our narrator can see that the scientific projections were clear, yet societies chose not to act. Scientists were partly to blame. Being largely rational creatures, they “assumed that reason would prevail and that nations would agree voluntarily to reduce CO2 emissions”. This allowed them to create plausible scenarios in which global average temperature rises were pegged below the 2C tipping point.
Well, the Scientists were wrong. Theywere wrong too about just howsensitive climate feedbacks wouldprove. IPCC modelling on thesensitivity of the world’s glaciers andthe Greenland ice cap to relentlesswarming proved hopelessly optimistic.Mean sea level increases had hit theone-metre mark by 2083, withcenturies more in store as the globalcryosphere entered its unstoppable
2084New York, so often the subject of attack by fictitious phantoms, from Godzilla to King Kong, finally succumbed to a combination of rising sea levels and intense storm surges by mid-century. After a major storm in 2042, Manhattan was effectively abandoned, with so much of its infrastructure destroyed, despite massive efforts to build sea barriers to protect from the worst of the storm surges.
“Geography is destiny”Bangladesh : by 2050,the sea-level rose by half a metre globally. is a phrase with particular resonance in Bangladesh.The half-metre global sea level rise by 2050 had led to the inundation and abandonment of fields as far as 40km from what was the coastline in 2011. With 50 million climate refugees trying to escape, the international aid agencies had long abandoned the country, and its neighbour India built a steel fence to try to keep them out.
2084 Closer to Europe, the Swiss Alps had lost their last snow caps by the 2040s, and the Alps were coming to resemble the Atlas Mountains. Famous ski resorts, such as Davos, have long been boarded up. The situation in Spain is much graver. Today’s Gold Coast is a graveyard of abandoned condos and dry swimming pools, with daytime temperatures of over 50C. The monoculture of olive trees have long since dried out and burned. The tomato and lettuce fields of Murcia are dustbowls, as are the hundreds of long- abandoned golf courses.In the first decade of the century, it took an estimated 11,400 litres of pumped fresh water just to allow one golfer to play a single round. That madness is beyond imagining in the parched Spain of the 2050s, which is now simply an extension of the North African desert.
Both Pakistan and India, both bristling with nuclear warheads and mutual antipathy, were lessfortunate. Declining flows from disappearing glaciers led to massive tension over access to fresh water, and in May2048, the conflict ignited a short but deadly nuclear exchange that led to a military victory of sorts for India and an estimated 150 million deaths.In the United States meanwhile, as temperatures madewheat growing impractical across much of the US’s corn belt, its eyes turned north, to the vast rolling plains of Canada,with which it shares a border over 5,000 miles long. Illegal Americans had been flooding north into Canada, and conflict flared into full-scale hostilities in 2046, when the US, claiming to defend its citizens from attack,crossed the borders in force and quickly disabled Canadianmilitary capability. Fighting was brief and casualties light. By 2050, Canada had been merged into an extended United States.
Paris in July 2084 is 46C in the shade. Thefamous sidewalk cafés are gone. People stay indoors.Even at night, the heat is stifling. Eighty years ago,southern Europeans feared that hordes ofNorth African immigrants would overrun them.It did not occur to them that not only wouldthe people of North Africa come, they wouldbring the climate too. The UN warned that the 21st century’sgreat wars would be fought over water, and in2028, Israel and Egypt once again went to warover control of water from the Jordan river.Syria, Jordon, Lebanon and nuclear-armed Iranjoined the escalating conflict.
Pakistan and India, both bristling with nuclear warheads and mutual antipathy, were less fortunate. Declining flows from disappearing glaciers led to massive tension over access to fresh water, and in May 2048, the conflict ignited a short but deadly nuclear exchange that led to a military victory of sorts for India and an estimated 150 million deaths.The USA :Meanwhile, as temperatures made wheat growing impractical across much of the US’s corn belt, its eyes turned north, to the vast rolling plains of Canada, with which it shares a border over 5,000 miles long. Illegal Americans had been flooding north, andconflict flared into full-scale hostilities in 2046, when the US, claiming to defend its citizens from attack, crossed the borders in force and quickly disabled Canadianmilitary capability. Fighting was brief and casualties light. By 2050, Canada had been merged into an extended United States.
2084: My oral history is mercifully light on fauxoptimism and predictable take-home lessons.However, I do manage to sneak in one in the finalparagraph: “In the first two decades of this century, people and their politicalleaders, prodded by the quisling scientists, acted as though theycould enjoy the benefits of modern science while rejecting anyscientific findings that they found inconvenient to their ideology ortheir pocketbook. For their folly, we paid a terrible price.”So I conclude this oral history of2084 the great global warming bycalling it the ‘century of death’ on healthand food production – both of which went into freefallas access to energy dwindled and thewheels fell off the once-mighty chariot of globalisation.
My presentation today willessentially take a look at the keydecisions that were reached duringlast year’s IPPAI Summit and then,based upon those ecommendations,suggest what the way forwardcould possibly be. We hope thatthis Second Summit can now makethe move towards operationalisingsome of the suggestions made lastyear instead of simply makinganother set of suggestions
The first Asian Energy Summit of 2011, made several recommendations: –• Asia needs quality leadership, which would be dedicated and have a vision to transform and make path breaking changes.• Regional power sharing could avoid additional investment costs separately by each country and interconnected power system between Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal could not only improve networks, but bring about economic efficiency.• The five Central Asian economies of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan need to create an efficient regional mechanism through conscious decisions.
4.The Caspian Sea could work as a central uniting factor.South Asian countries, along the lines of WTO, could define a set of rules based on the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN), treaties.5. South Asia could also develop A Union Of Financial and Technical Coordination to optimise use of regional resources.6. Countries surrounding the Bay of Bengal should invest in deepwater and ultra- deepwater E& P technologies.7. Developing Coalbed Methane and Shale gas should also be considered a possibility. A Bay of Bengal E & P Community should concentrate on exploration, production, transportation and sale of natural gas.
1.South Asian countries, along the lines ofWTO, could define a set of rules based on the Most-Favoured-Nation(MFN), treaties.2. South Asia could also develop A Union Of Financial and Technical Coordination to optimise use of regional resources.3. MrParthasarathy this morning referred to Bimstec as an association of landlocked nations which could bridge the ASEAN and South Asian gap. 4.Countries surrounding the Bay of Bengal should invest in deepwater and ultra- deepwater E& P technologies. DevelopingCoalbed Methane and Shale gas should also be considered
. Energy security cuts across such alarge variety of policy areas thatconsensus as to its vital nature oftendissolves into misinterpretation andcompeting or redundant policyinitiatives.At the nexus of energy and nationalsecurity, then, we must constructsustainable, viable, and effectivestrategies.A new paradigm of Asiansecurity is now necessary (AmbassadorTalmiz Ahmed)
Greater Mekong cooperation Bangladesh Sri lanka Nepal integration process in South Asia
Can Business Create A Holistic Integrated Platform Towards Energy Security (Suhel Seth) Share resources, develop harmony among peoples Trade sees no boundaries=== need and supply are the basics of trade. Trade between India and China operates on two different planes,the Indian plane and the Chinese plane.THEY SHOULD DEAL WITH EACH OTHER ON THE SAME PLANE. India and Pakistan,India and Nepal,India and Bangladesh,India and Bhutan and India and the rest of South Asia need to change their perception and we don’t have the luxury of time (Suhel Seth). We should stop surviving from election to election.Politics has created too many walls.So train your sights on economic nirvana to break walls
Energy-hungry Asian economies are highly dependent on imported oil and gas to fuel economic growth. In Asia itself, Russia and the Central Asian states have a significant proportion of the worlds primary energy resources and are looking for ways to increase such exports toexpand and diversify into new markets in Asia and Europe.
Providing universal access tobasic energy will requireannual investments of around$48 billion according toInternational Energy Agencyestimates.ADB has investedapproximately $2.8 billion inaccess to energy projects
Asia should work towards creating an integrated and competitive natural gas market within the region. India and China would be themajor energy guzzlers in future so they should work towards common goals in areas oftechnology development and joint development of energy assets.
In Asia itself, Russia and the Central Asian states have a significant proportion of the worlds primary energy resources. But there are,aspointed out by Amb Parthasararhy thismorning,there are problems of Chinese attempts at hegemony in the Indo Pacific region. Problems also are festering in Vietnam,Philippines,Malaysia whichneed to be sorted out. These problemswill take their own time to sort out.
Energy security in the Asian region: How do you assess risks ?Different types of risks4. relating to geological availability,5. geopolitical accessibility,6.economic affordability and7.environmental and social acceptability.There are two ways in which energy security could be defined and tackled.One would be to rank countries, from most to least secure, define those countries energy security profiles and then group countries with similar combinations of risks and resilience factors. This sort of evaluation would be based