3. Agenda Part -1 Indian Security Scenario Overview Part -2 Automating Intelligence creation - Intelligence creation - Correlating the 'concept of operations' Part-3 Tackling unconventional conflicts in India - UCIMS

4. The previous wave .. Date of attack Location (Scope of the attack) LEGEND KEY 21 October 2008 Imphal, Manipur (One device) 13 May 2008 Jaipur, Rajasthan (Eight devices) 25 July 2008 Bengaluru, Karnataka (Eight Devices) 26 July 2008 Ahmedabad, Gujarat (21 devices) 29-30 July 2008 Surat, Gujarat (18 devices) 13 September 2008 New Delhi (Six devices) 29 September 2008 Modasa, Gujarat (One device) 29 September 2008 Malegaon, Maharashtra (Two devices) 01 October 2008 Tripura, Agartala (Five devices) 30 October 2008 Guwahati, Assam (18 devices) 26-29 November 2008 Mumbai, Maharashtra (Multiple Attacks & Blasts) 27 September 2008 New Delhi (One device) 01January 2008 Rampur, U.P (Two devices)

5. Major Naxalites Areas

6. Circa 2010: Transition Patterns - Naxalism Discontent among the 'strategic' arm of Naxals differences between groups supporting armed struggle and other, ready for negotiations Military arm of Naxals becoming aggressive Religion and caste becoming an issues Leveraging the political forces Ambiguous leadership Discontent among members Clash in recruitment and funding sources Naxalism in Transition Naxal Organization Indian government actions and 'reactions' Absence of constructive and 'crowd pulling' ideology

7. Transition of terrorism in India (post 26/11) Transition of terrorism in India (post 26/11) Organised Crime Linkages (local & international) Meticulous operational and strategic planning Recruitment is becoming local focusing on those working in factories and computer literates from big cities Emergence of India as a target of transnational terrorism Expanding logistical homebase Still 'waiting' to carry out mass large scale attacks Impacted by neighborhood Geo-strategic forces

9. Challenges for the security forces Terrain & Demographic Information Intelligence collation from diverse sources Network centric operations & comd & control Technology Platforms Evolution of Organized crime Development of the Concept of Operations Strategic Challenges

10. Challenges for the security forces (Intelligence & Ops) Information availability in multi agency envt Leveraging on predictive patterns Managing short term and long term op activities Planning and monitoring Information asymmetry Command and Control The single largest challenge is the creation of actionable intelligence for actual op execution

11. The Intelligence Stack Strategic Intelligence Operational Intelligence Tactical Intelligence Tactical Intelligence Operational Intelligence Strategic Intelligence Intelligence Consumption Intelligence Creation

12. Technical Intelligence + Human Intelligence Predictive and Investigative Intelligence Intelligence Needs Granularity - Data Cubes WHY WHAT WHERE WHO WHEN

13. Convergence – Human Int and Tech Int Intelligence Agencies - Databases Administrative - Databases Tech Intelligence Datamining Processing Raw Data into Usable form Better Information Collection Internet based information collection and investigation (Track Back) Enhanced Prevent-Prepare-Respond-Recover Structure Identifying Triggers & Patterns Automated analysis of structured & unstructured data Human Intelligence © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty

16. Target Centric Intelligence Model

17. Unconventional Conflict & Intelligence Management System (UCIMS)

18. Intelligence collaboration process Intelligence sources Socio political events Demographics Sat images, maps Technical inputs Data repository - Raw data - Analysis of data - Intelligence creation - Intelligence distribution Actionable intelligence Tactical decision making Intelligence collaboration process

22. Combining Data Mining and Link Analysis

23. Inferenced Information Representation

24. Deeper relations between entities

25. Association between events

26. Network Analysis and Data visualization (1) Manually creation of association matrix by identifying the relations through raw data (2) Helpful in investigation, becomes ineffective where datasets are very large (1) Graphically representation of insurgent networks using tools such as Link Analysis (2) Helpful in visualization of large amount of relationship data but without analytical functionality. (1)Advanced analytical capabilities to assist investigation (2) It can help in identifying networks to mining of large volumes of data to discover useful knowledge and create intelligence about the structure and organization of criminal networks - Data Mining - Social Network Analysis - Pattern Tracing and interactions © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Manual Graphics-based Manual Structured

27. Past historical factual information

29. OLAP analysis

30. Naxal Emerging Fault lines Castes and tribes Within tribes Inter-state leadership CPI (Maoist) and frontal organizations Splinter groups The direction these splits take as the government action on all fronts intensifies will have a major bearing on the future of Naxal movement and strategy in India Naxal Movement

35. Basis for Risk Mitigation - (Case Study) Low Risks They do not require the formulation of a risk mitigation strategy at this stage of exploration work Moderate Risks Awareness about factors and influences that drive these parameters, and regular monitoring are required. The threats from these risks however will not have a direct impact at this stage Extreme & High Risks Those areas that register a 15+ total on freq * severity require active risk mitigations strategies to be in place

36. Sample KRI Parameters & Triggers for Risk Intelligence Framework (a large mining project in India) - (Case Study)   Common Borders   Topography   Forest Cover that indicates Naxalite hideout zones   Rivers — that could potentially lead to crime and water politics in the future. Seasonal floods, as well as shortage of irrigation water in certain seasons lead to incidents of violence, crime and clashes amongst villagers   Location of a particular district   Population   Incidents in the district   Nature of criminal groups   State of police and governance   Presence of Naxalism (The number, strength and method indicate the pos sibility of Naxalite Attacks)   Ammunition recovery and Arrests within a district (Reflects the strength of the network) Crime/Extremism Geography Local Political Situation   Constituency representative   Opposition parties   Influence of Naxalite political groups   Local support for Naxalites/ political party A constituency with high profile candidates and major political parties attract Naxalite attacks and the crime - politics connection Socio - Economic   Economic Profile   Literacy   Occupation   Youth — education and employment   Percentage of SC/ST * in total population -- A high risk socio - economic profile can provide flashpoints for the future -- The youth form a substant ial part of the “new criminals” * SC/ST – Scheduled Cast e s / Scheduled Tribes Land Politics   Type of Land   Yield   Size of holdings   Land Clashes Caste - based attacks and crimes result in human loss and psyc hological fear in an area Road + Rail   Presence of NH/SH in the district   Condition of roads and rail network   I ncidents on both   Accidents   Closest railway stations and alternative ways of access Infrastructure   Hospitals   Banks   Electricity/Power sup ply   Telecom Circle   Water Local Sentiment   Attitude towards foreigners   Attitude towards Mining   Protests   Mobilizers — NGOs, Pradhans   L ocal media Businesses   No . of Businesses in the area   Year of start and closure   Nature of Business   Ratio of Businesses closed to open Natural Hazard   Earthquakes   Floods   Monsoon   Drought

37. Risk Visualization / Risk Map – Mining Project - (Case Study) Disruptions Methods of Stalling High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk R I S K I N T E L L I G E N C E Vulnerabilities Associated with Legal, Regulatory, & Policy Issues Demonstrations, Strikes Security/Loss/ Sabotage Instruments which can make this happen Extremism/ Crime Political Dynamics People’s Right Activists Local Social & Community Issues Local Contracts Resettlements Pollution Environment Local Employment Socio - Economic Reasons

38. ORKASH-UCIMS on a geospatial platform

40. Intelligence & Operations Management

41. Connecting the Dots..

42. Location Intelligence

43. Tracking events news with location based search

44. Advanced Search Techniques for Location Intelligence

46. Monitoring Movement of Tactical Assets

47. Air Surveillance

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52. Changing security landscape of India India has experienced a continued and an almost consistent security problem pertaining to: -Naxalism - Insurgency -Extremism -Organized crime Drivers of Transition: -Operational Sophistication -Ideological Evolution India's internal security scenario is in a very 'delicate' and a 'vulnerable' stage Unconventional conflicts and deteriorating security mechanisms have forced us to think beyond the routine 'guard and police' protection Essentially non existent, it is high time that India focuses on homeland security protection Long history of terrorism Terrorism Transition Internal Security Security Evolution Homeland Security

53. Homeland security in India Increased focus on HLS post 26/11 Fragmented structure of HLS sector Technology Modernization New Technology Introduction Information Synthesis