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Endgame thinking - Alison Cox

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Endgame thinking - Alison Cox

  1. 1. ENDGAME THINKING BELFAST, 6TH JUNE 2014 DUBLIN, 9TH JUNE 2014 ALISON COX, TOBACCO CONTROL LEAD, CANCER RESEARCH UK
  2. 2. “If you want to build a ship, don’t drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work, and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea.” - Antoine de Saint-Exupery Thursday, June 19, 20142
  3. 3. Thursday, June 19, 20143
  4. 4. Contents 1. Key elements of endgame thinking • Blue sky thinking • Strategic approach • Endgame strategies • Reinvigorating debate • Bold vision • Counter arguments 2. CRUK’s endgame report • Objectives • Contents • UK analysis • Recommendations 4
  5. 5. Key Elements of Endgame Thinking 5
  6. 6. Key elements of endgame thinking 1. CONCEPTUAL SHIFT: – Go beyond tobacco control to becoming “tobacco free” – FCTC as the “middle game” – Enable Blue Sky thinking about new approaches 6
  7. 7. Key elements of endgame thinking 2. STRATEGIC APPROACH: – Think through final stages of achieving the goal – Set specific targets and map backwards – Informs middle-term strategy 7
  8. 8. Key elements of endgame thinking 3. ENDGAME STRATEGIES – Product – User – Retail – Market 8
  9. 9. Key elements of endgame thinking 4. REINVIGORATING DEBATE – Academic papers – Conferences themes – Attracting new audiences 9
  10. 10. Key elements of endgame thinking 5. A BOLD VISION – Scotland “Tobacco Free Generation” by 2034 – Ireland tobacco free by 2025! – Global goal to reduce prevalence by 30% by 2025 10
  11. 11. Perceptions: What do you think? Thursday, June 19, 201411
  12. 12. Cancer Research UK Endgame Report 12
  13. 13. CRUK Endgame Report 1. OBJECTIVES • Contribute to the dialogue • Inform CRUK planning • Support current campaign comms • Influence policy makers 13
  14. 14. CRUK Endgame Report Thursday, June 19, 201414 2. CONTENTS • Synopsis & overview • Case studies • UK analysis • Strategic considerations • Recommendations
  15. 15. CRUK Endgame Report 3. CASE STUDIES 15
  16. 16. UK Endgame Report 4. UK ANALSYIS – Strength of stop smoking services – Inequalities issues – EU context – Harm reduction challenge – Mystics and Mechanics16
  17. 17. “Without an explicit engagement with the idea that an endgame for tobacco is possible, such an outcome cannot be achieved.” Thursday, June 19, 201417 Recommendations
  18. 18. Near Term Recommendations 1. ENGAGEMENT – An Endgame Summit – Develop a plan – Fund research – Communications and engagement 18
  19. 19. Near Term Recommendations 2. TOBACCO INDUSTRY – Mass communications campaign – Article 5.3 implementation – Marketing 19
  20. 20. Near Term Recommendations 3. HARM REDUCTION – Risks – Opportunity 20
  21. 21. Long Term Recommendations 21 – Tobacco Regulatory authority – Reduce retail outlets – Economic impacts
  22. 22. “Mystics, mechanics and mind bombs” Thursday, June 19, 201422
  23. 23. 23 Thank you

Editor's Notes

  • Thanks & introductions
  • First thing I want to say is that neither this presentation, nor CRUK’s endgame report will tell you what the UK’s endgame strategy should be
    What it will do is try to initiate a discussion about what endgame thinking is (and what it is not), and hopefully help you think about how you can use it.

    It’s in two parts
    An overview of endgame thinking – that includes a brief look at some of the innovative policy levers that have been discussed in the endgame dialogue
    And an overview of the Cancer Research UK endgame report and the recommendations it makes for pursuing endgame thinking in the UK
  • 3. So what are these types of policies that might be possible as prevalence gets lower and smoking becomes an increasingly minority issue – i.e. When there’s fewer pieces on the board.
    Modfiying the Product
    Banning the manufacturing innovations and additives that have been introduced to make cigarettes easier to inhale and taste better
    Incentivising the use of “cleaner” nicotine products like e-cigarettes – perhaps even eventually banning combustibles?
    Restricting Tobacco Users
    Restricting sales by year of birth so that future generations can never purchase cigarettes (part of Singapore’s strategy)
    Introducing a smokers licence or prescription
    Retail regulation
    Reducing the number of retail outlets
    Controlling tobacco industry pricing and profits to eliminate the pricing strategies that allow companies to absorb tax rises and keep “ultra-low price” products on the market.
    Massive tax increases to drive up the prices in short, sharp shocks.
    Market
    Regulated market model with a tobacco products agency as the regulator and sole purchaser from importers and manufacturers
    Setting a “sinking lid” on the volume of tobacco that can be imported and sold.
  • 4. Reinvigorating debate
    EndGame thinking has generated a whole new rich theme in academic papers –for example recently the Tobacco control journal produced an entire edition dedicated to the theme.

    It has also been the theme of conferences – it’s not lost on the organisers that this is something new and attractive that might reinvigorate interest and sell tickets
    And international end game conference in New Delhi addressed by Margaret Chan
    ASH Scotland’s 40th anniversary conference theme “tobacco free generation”
    Fresh North East’s “making smoking history” conference
    Even had a session on it at the NCRI that attracted a good number for a non-clinical session

    And the WHO EURO Ashgabat conference on noncommunicable diseases – a ministerial level WHO Europe meeting had a whole discussion around creating a Tobacco Free Europe by 2040 as one of only three key themes

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