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Fifth Assessment Report - Working Group III

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Fifth Assessment Report - Working Group III

  1. 1. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change ©Ocean/Corbis Name Role Titel XYZ
  2. 2. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 800+ Reviewers Close to 1500 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments IPCC reports are the result of extensive work of many scientists from around the world. 2
  3. 3. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 3 Climate change is a global commons problem that requires international cooperation and coordination across scales. ©ESA/NASA
  4. 4. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report There is far more carbon in the ground than emitted in any baseline scenario. 4 Based on SRREN Figure 1.7
  5. 5. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 5 GHG emissions growth has accelerated despite reduction efforts.
  6. 6. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades. 6 Based on Figure SPM.1
  7. 7. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report About half of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years. 7 Based on Figure 5.3
  8. 8. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy. 8 Based on Figure 1.6
  9. 9. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy. 9 Based on Figure 1.6
  10. 10. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population. 10 Based on Figure SPM.3
  11. 11. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The long-standing trend of decarbonization has reversed. 11 Based on Figure SPM.3
  12. 12. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Limiting warming involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges.
  13. 13. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 13 Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4 Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
  14. 14. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations requires moving away from business as usual. 14 Based on Figure SPM.4
  15. 15. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Lower ambition mitigation goals require similar reductions of GHG emissions. 15 Based on Figure SPM.4
  16. 16. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation involves substantial upscaling of low-carbon energy. 16 Based on Figure SPM.4
  17. 17. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation involves substantial upscaling of low-carbon energy. 17 Based on Figure SPM.4
  18. 18. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Many scenarios make it at least about as likely as not that warming will remain below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. 18 Based on Figure SPM.5
  19. 19. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Still, between 2030 and 2050, emissions would have to be reduced at an unprecedented rate... 19 Based on Figure SPM.5
  20. 20. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ...implying a rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy. 20 Based on Figure SPM.5
  21. 21. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying emissions reductions increases the difficulty and narrows the options for mitigation. 21 Based on Figure SPM.5
  22. 22. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying emissions reductions increases the difficulty and narrows the options for mitigation. 22 Based on Figure SPM.5
  23. 23. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying emissions reductions increases the difficulty and narrows the options for mitigation. 23 Based on Figure SPM.5
  24. 24. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 24 Mitigation cost estimates vary, but global GDP growth may not be strongly affected.
  25. 25. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Global costs rise with the ambition of the mitigation goal. 25 Based on Table SPM.2
  26. 26. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Technological limitations can increase mitigation costs. 26 Based on Figure 6.24
  27. 27. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation can result in co-benefits for human health and other societal goals. 27 Based on Figures SPM.6 and 12.23
  28. 28. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate change mitigation can result in co-benefits for human health and other societal goals. 28 Based on Figures SPM.6 and 12.23
  29. 29. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 29 Low stabilization scenarios depend on a full decarbonization of energy supply.
  30. 30. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Baseline scenarios suggest rising GHG emissions in all sectors, except for CO2 emissions from the land‐use sector. 30 Based on Figure TS.15
  31. 31. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Systemic approaches are expected to be most effective. 31 Based on Figure TS.17
  32. 32. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation efforts in one sector determine efforts in others. 32 Based on Figure TS.17
  33. 33. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Decarbonization of energy supply is a key requirement for limiting warming to 2°C. 33 Based on Figure 7.11
  34. 34. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Energy demand reductions can provide flexibility, hedge against risks, avoid lock-in and provide co-benefits. 34 Based on Figure 7.11
  35. 35. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Reducing energy demand through efficiency enhancements and behavioural changes is a key mitigation strategy. 35 Based on Figure SPM.8
  36. 36. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Reducing energy demand through efficiency enhancements and behavioural changes are a key mitigation strategy. 36 Based on Figure SPM.8
  37. 37. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 37 The wide-scale application of best- practice low-GHG technologies could lead to substantial emission reductions.
  38. 38. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Examples from electricity generation: Low emission technologies exist, but emissions are reduced to different degrees. 38 Based on Figure 7.7
  39. 39. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Due to cost decline, renewable energy technologies are becoming economical solutions in an increasing number of countries. 39 Based on Figure 7.7
  40. 40. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Examples from transport: Several strategies exist to reduce emissions from transportation. 40 Based on Figure TS.21
  41. 41. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Private costs of reducing emissions in transport vary widely. Societal costs remain uncertain. 41 Based on Figure TS.21
  42. 42. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 42 Effective mitigation will not be achieved if individual agents advance their own interests independently.
  43. 43. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Substantial reductions in emissions require significant changes in investment patterns and appropriate policies. 43 Based on Figure SPM.9
  44. 44. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report There has been a considerable increase in national and sub- national mitigation policies since AR4. 44 Based on Figures 15.1 and 13.3
  45. 45. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Sector-specific policies have been more widely used than economy-wide policies. 45 Based on Figure 10.15
  46. 46. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate change mitigation requires international cooperation across scales. 46 Based on Figure 13.1
  47. 47. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report International cooperation can focus on the ends or means and vary in the degree of centralization. 47 Based on Figure 13.2
  48. 48. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Effective mitigation will not be achieved if individual agents advance their own interests independently. 48 Based on Figure 13.2
  49. 49. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change ©Ocean/Corbis www.mitigation2014.org

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