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Seminario tides - low cost

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¿Gastan más en el destino los turistas que viajan con "Low cost" por volar más barato? El Caso de Canarias



Un trabajo de Juan Luis Eugenio y Federico Inchausti

Impartido por Federico Inchausti



Resumen:

Las aerolíneas de bajo coste parecen haber revolucionado el transporte aéreo en los últimos años. Su éxito radica en el abaratamiento generalizado de costes y en un uso más eficiente de las aeronaves, lo cual redunda es unos precios de los billetes inferiores a las aerolíneas tradicionales.
Para Canarias, cuyo principal sector económico es el turismo y la entrada de turistas es eminentemente aérea, el fenómeno “bajo coste” tiene unas repercusiones sobre su competitividad que merecen ser estudiadas. De las múltiples preguntas que surgen cuando se analiza el fenómeno “bajo coste”, cuatro destacan sobre las demás: ¿Generan un mayor flujo de pasajeros? ¿Fomentan el crecimiento económico en los destinos a los que viajan? ¿Han cambiado el perfil del viajero? Y, los viajeros de este tipo de aerolíneas, ¿Gastan más en el destino por haber viajado a un precio más barato?
Este trabajo trata de arrojar luz sobre las dos últimas cuestiones, para ello considera la dicotomía entre el gasto en origen y en destino y su mutua relación; por medio de ecuaciones simultáneas.

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Seminario tides - low cost

  1. 1. The relationship between tourismexpenditure in origin and destination: The Case of LCCs Juan Luis Eugenio Martín Federico Inchausti Sintes Seminario Tides, 19th October 2012
  2. 2. ExordiumModel and Data Results Conclusion
  3. 3. -Exordium
  4. 4. Exordium: LCCs What is a Low cost carrier (LCC)? According to the CAA (2006): -High density seating -Single aircraft type -Fast turnaround times -Reduce cost to offer lower tickets prices
  5. 5. Exordium: questions - Have LCCs increased the flow of tourism? - CAA(2006), Young and Whang(2011), Graham and Dennis(2010), Rey et al.(2011) and Davison and Ryley(2010). - Have they promoted economic growth in the region where they travel? - Young and Whang(2011), Pulina and Cortés-Jimenez(2010), Vera and Ivars(2009) and Castillo-Manzano et al.(2011)
  6. 6. Exordium: questions - Do LCC passengers have a different behavior in regard to traditional carrier passengers? - Young and Whang(2011), Graham and Dennis(2010), Pulina and Cortés-Jimenez(2010). - Do LCC passengers spend more money at destination?
  7. 7. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands- “(…)Si no lo hacen, no tendremos más remedio que cancelar todos los vuelos en Fuerteventura a partir del próximo 31 de enero", advirtió el ejecutivo, quien recordó que Ryanair genera "enormes ingresos" gracias a los más de "250.000 pasajeros" que viajan cada año a la isla con Ryanair.” Michael Cawley, vicepresidente de Ryanair (La Provincia, 19/11/2008)-“El cabildo de Gran Canaria ha adelantado que cerrará pronto acuerdos con Easyjet para que esta aerolínea (……) ‘debute’ para enlazar Gran Canaria con Suiza.” (residentecanario.com, 30/09/2012)
  8. 8. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands- “El perfil del turista que utiliza las compañías de bajo coste nosólo quiere ahorrar en el billete sino en todo el gasto de susvacaciones” (Rafael Gallego, presidente de la FEAVV, en Canarias7,16/01/2011)- “La hipótesis que más fuerza está cobrando es que las personasque viajan en low cost tratan de ahorrarse en el billete del avión loque luego se gastan en el destino.” Miembro del ejecutivo canario,(Canarias7, 05/02/2011)
  9. 9. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands Tourists Arrivals to Canary Islands
  10. 10. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands Where do they stay in Canary Islands?
  11. 11. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands LCC travellers distribution (%) 5 stars 4 stars 3,2 or 1 Apartment Family or Other Total star friendsOnly flight (F) 0,52 1,41 1,37 4,16 9,38 2,15 18,99(F) + Accommodation(A) 0,6 3,26 4,29 24,29 0 2,03 34,47(F+A) + Breakfast (B) 1,72 2,39 1,06 1,04 0 0,07 6,27(F+A)+Half Board(HB) 1,57 8,78 2,64 1,83 0 0,09 14,91(F+A+HB)+Dinner(D) 0,26 1,51 1 0,68 0 0,1 3,54(F+A)+ All Inclusive 0,87 10,98 5,01 4,72 0 0,24 21,82Total 5,54 28,33 15,37 36,72 9,38 4,68 100
  12. 12. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands Non LCC travellers distribution (%) 5 stars 4 stars 3,2 or 1 star Apartment Family or Other Total friendsOnly flight (F) 0,34 1,01 0,66 1,6 4,1 0,88 8,58(F) + Accommodation(A) 0,39 3,03 2,94 14,61 0 0,98 21,95(F+A) + Breakfast (B) 1,51 2,77 1,42 1,28 0 0,01 6,98(F+A)+Half Board(HB) 3,09 18,57 4,55 2,27 0 0,06 28,55(F+A+HB)+Dinner(D) 0,41 2,37 0,98 0,34 0 0,23 4,33(F+A)+ All Inclusive 0,97 18,92 6,82 2,6 0 0,3 29,61Total 6,7 46,68 17,36 22,7 4,1 2,46 100
  13. 13. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands LCC- Non LCC travellers distribution differences (%) 5 stars 4 stars 3,2 or 1 star Apartment Family or Other Total friendsOnly flight (F) 0,18 0,40 0,71 2,56 5,28 1,27 10,41(F) + Accommodation(A) 0,21 0,23 1,35 9,68 0,00 1,05 12,52(F+A) + Breakfast (B) 0,21 -0,38 -0,36 -0,24 0,00 0,06 -0,71(F+A)+Half Board(HB) -1,52 -9,79 -1,91 -0,44 0,00 0,03 -13,64(F+A+HB)+Dinner(D) -0,15 -0,86 0,02 0,34 0,00 -0,13 -0,79(F+A)+ All Inclusive -0,10 -7,94 -1,81 2,12 0,00 -0,06 -7,79Total -1,16 -18,35 -1,99 14,02 5,28 2,22 0,00
  14. 14. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands How many days do they remain on the islands?
  15. 15. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands LCC travelers mean nights 5 stars 4 stars 3,2 or 1 Apartment Family or Other star friends Only flight (F) 6,69 8,91 7,63 12,20 12,42 10,66 (F) +Accommodation (A) 7,20 7,85 8,44 9,49 10,16 (F+A) + Breakfast (B) 6,51 6,96 6,75 7,82 9,42(F+A)+Half Board (HB) 7,71 8,23 8,51 8,63 9,22(F+A+HB)+Dinner (D) 7,10 7,62 8,82 10,12 8,98(F+A)+ All Inclusive 7,23 7,94 8,26 8,71 9,73
  16. 16. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands NLCC travelers mean nights 5 stars 4 stars 3,2 or 1 star Apartment Family or Other friendsOnly flight (F) 6,74 8,29 9,36 16,49 14,20 11,32(F) + Accommodation(A) 7,28 9,00 9,89 10,87 11,36(F+A) + Breakfast (B) 7,58 7,77 8,39 9,35 8,00(F+A)+Half Board(HB) 8,49 9,16 9,27 9,94 10,54(F+A+HB)+Dinner(D) 7,57 8,55 8,37 10,00 7,78(F+A)+ All Inclusive 8,42 8,80 9,13 9,65 8,35
  17. 17. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands LCC-NonLCC travelers mean nights differences 5 stars 4 stars 3,2 or 1 Apartment Family or Other star friendsOnly flight (F) -0,04 0,62 -1,72 -4,29 -1,78 -0,66(F) +Accommodation (A) -0,08 -1,15 -1,46 -1,39 0,00 -1,20(F+A) + Breakfast(B) -1,07 -0,81 -1,64 -1,53 0,00 1,42(F+A)+Half Board(HB) -0,78 -0,94 -0,76 -1,32 0,00 -1,32(F+A+HB)+Dinner(D) -0,46 -0,93 0,45 0,12 0,00 1,20(F+A)+ All Inclusive -1,19 -0,86 -0,86 -0,95 0,00 1,38
  18. 18. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands What is the travel party size?
  19. 19. Exordium: LCCs in Canary Islands Mean Party size (no differences between LCC and nonLCCS travelers) 5 stars 4 stars 3,2 or 1 Apartment Family or Other star friends Only flight (F) 2,26 2,11 1,83 2,11 1,84 2,37 (F) +Accommodation (A) 2,53 2,39 2,37 2,44 2,60 (F+A) + Breakfast (B) 2,21 2,18 2,08 2,43 2,08(F+A)+Half Board (HB) 2,36 2,20 2,09 2,36 1,95(F+A+HB)+Dinner (D) 2,52 2,32 2,24 2,44 2,13(F+A)+ All Inclusive 2,56 2,43 2,46 2,80 2,15
  20. 20. - Model
  21. 21. Model: definition variables Endogenous variables: definition exporigin Expenditure in origin per person and night expisland Expenditure in destination per person and night Exogenous variables: definition income Annual income divided by 12 months term Trimester year Year destination Island visited: La Palma, El hierro, Tenerife, Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura and Lanzarote party lower than 2 years, between 2 and 12, between 13 and 65 years, older than 65 years people Alone, with couple, with family, friends and relative or coworkers motivation Main reason to travel to Canary Islands: sun and beach, cultural, landscape, prices, safety, etc previous visits From 1 to more than 10 times
  22. 22. Model: variables definition Exogenous variables: definitionp Package: flight, flight + accommodation, Flight + accommodation + Breakfast, flight + accommodation + half board, flight + accommodation + all inclusive.a Category of accommodation: Hotel 5*, Hotel 4*, Hotel 3*, Apartments, Households (friends, family), Others (timesharing, rural housing)pa Multiplicative variable between package and category of accommodationpal pa multiply by lowcost (1 if the passenger travels in lowcost and 0 the others cases)
  23. 23. Model: simultaneous equations 4 2011 31 31 exporigini = β1expdestinationi + β 2incomei + ∑ β 3t termit + ∑ β 4 y yeariy + ∑ β 5 h paih + ∑ β 6 h palih Expenditure t =1 y = 2009 h =1 h =1 in 7 4 5 origin + ∑ β 7 d destinationid + ∑ β 8 r partyir + ∑ β 9 o peopleio + β11 previousi + ui d =1 r =1 o =1 4 31 31 expdestinationi = γ 1exporigini + γ 2incomei + ∑ γ 3t termit + ∑ γ 5 h paih + ∑ γ 6 h palih Expenditure t =1 h =1 h =1in destination 7 4 5 16 + ∑ γ 7 d destinationid + ∑ γ 8 r partyir + ∑ γ 9 o peopleio + ∑ γ 10 m motivationim + γ 11 previousi + ei d =1 r =1 o =1 m =1
  24. 24. Model: effect of pa and palFigure 1a: decrease in consumption of LCCs Figure 1b: increase in consumption of LCCs tourists with respect to non-LCCs tourists tourists respect to non-LCCs tourists
  25. 25. Model: simultaneous equations 4 2011 31 31 exporigini = β1expdestinationi + β 2incomei + ∑ β 3t termit + ∑ β 4 y yeariy + ∑ β 5 h paih + ∑ β 6 h palih Expenditure t =1 y = 2009 h =1 h =1 in 7 4 5 origin + ∑ β 7 d destinationid + ∑ β 8 r partyir + ∑ β 9 o peopleio + β11 previousi + ui Contemporary d =1 r =1 o =1 Correlations Endogenity among errors 4 31 31 expdestinationi = γ 1exporigini + γ 2incomei + ∑ γ 3t termit + ∑ γ 5 h paih + ∑ γ 6 h palih Expenditure t =1 h =1 h =1in destination 7 4 5 16 + ∑ γ 7 d destinationid + ∑ γ 8 r partyir + ∑ γ 9 o peopleio + ∑ γ 10 m motivationim + γ 11 previousi + ei d =1 r =1 o =1 m =1
  26. 26. Model: assumptionsVar (ui ) = σ 2 Var (ui u j ) = 0 Homokedasticity in both equationsVar (ei ) = σ 2 Var (ei e j ) = 0 Contemporary correlations error betweenE (ui ei ) = σ i both equationsE (ui xi ) = 0 Exogenous explanatoryE (ei xi ) = 0 variables in both equationsE (ui expdestinationi ) ≠ 0 endogeneityE (ei exporigini ) ≠ 0
  27. 27. Model: estimation methods Indirect ordinary Least square (IOLS) Limited endogeneity Instrumental variables information Two-step least squares (2SLS) Three-Step Least SquaresSimultaneous (3SLS) equations context Contemporary Seemingly unrelated equations Complete correlation (SUR) information among errors
  28. 28. Model: estimation problems Does the model has heteroskedasticity? Does 3SLS deal with it?
  29. 29. Model: estimation methods Any of the previous estimators are a particular case of the GMM. Thus, GMM deals with endogeneity and/or error correlations .Generalized method of moment (GMM) And, it permits Robust residual covariance matrix ˆ estimation ( ∑ ) (it deal with heterokedasticity) . ˆ ∑ is not always positive-semidefinite.
  30. 30. Model: Estimation methods 1º -3SLS estimation Robust residual covariance 2º -GMM (3SLS robust) Misspecification GMM(3SLS robust) matrix is not achieved. estimation without the non vs significant variables in step efficiency gain 1º. Some element of the ˆ main diagonal of ∑ may be negative.Estimation method There are not certainty that the non ˆ 1 S= N ∑ u i2zi zi′ ˆ significant variables in step 1º would not be i significant in step 2º!!! Good specification 3SLS vs Efficiency lost
  31. 31. Results Do LCCs travelers spend more money in destination?
  32. 32. 3SLS Regression : Equation 1 ( origin) Equation 2 (destination) Parameter Std. desv Parameter Std. desv exporigin - - 0.182*** (0.068) expisland 0.585*** (0.050) - - Income 0.002*** (0.000) 0.001*** (0.000) Trime2 -3.379*** (0.434) 1.421*** (0.364) Trime3 -3.807*** (0.498) 1.122*** (0.418) Trime4 -2.830*** (0.476) 1.078*** (0.375) Year 2010 3.322*** (0.360) - - Year 2011 3.015*** (0.442) - - Germany -5.854*** (1.655) -11.063*** (1.453) Austria 8.264*** (2.141) -9.813*** (1.507) Belgium 2.926 (1.825) -6.408*** (1.295) Denmark 3.651** (1.847) -9.607*** (1.287) Spain -12.961*** (1.485) 2.920** (1.398) Finland 2.921 (1.864) -10.471*** (1.299) France 0.611 (1.870) -6.430*** (1.330)The Netherlands -6.554*** (1.735) -9.525*** (1.496) Ireland -21.804*** (1.670) 7.710*** (1.732) Italy -2.706 (1.954) -1.754 (1.430) Norway -5.809*** (1.733) -1.842 (1.361) Poland -12.047*** (2.241) -0.266 (1.855) Portugal -12.064*** (2.569) -2.097 (2.075)United Kingdom -14.945*** (1.581) -6.932*** (1.772)Czech Republic -1.369 (2.952) -11.989*** (2.189) Russia -9.452*** (2.836) 19.822*** (1.917) Sweden 2.931 (1.802) -12.080*** (1.247) Switzerland 9.407*** (1.958) -8.523*** (1.420) Luxemburg 16.346*** (3.792) -8.791*** (2.851)
  33. 33. 3SLS Regression : Equation 1 (origin) Equation 2 (destination) Parameter Std. desv Parameter Std. desv Lanzarote 0.337*** (0.095) -0.315*** (0.070) Fuerteventura -0.014 (0.102) 0.210*** (0.075) Gran Canaria -0.505*** (0.101) -0.489*** (0.090) Tenerife 0.318*** (0.102) -0.762*** (0.066) La Gomera -0.146 (0.183) -0.196 (0.133) La Palma -0.900*** (0.152) 0.769*** (0.112) El Hierro 0.187 (0.589) 0.368 (0.426) Lower than 2 years -9.590*** (1.018) -7.047*** (1.244) 2 and 12 years -2.203*** (0.425) -5.113*** (0.463) 13 and 65 years 1.109*** (0.336) -4.725*** (0.201) Older than 65 years 0.599 (0.560) -7.466*** (0.418) Couple -10.341*** (0.501) 0.202 (0.823) Family -1.947*** (0.632) 1.201*** (0.464) Friends -10.488*** (0.620) 2.227*** (0.760) Coworkers 20.195*** (1.980) 3.939* (2.026) Climate - - -3.066*** (0.621) Beaches - - -1.702*** (0.404) Landscape - - -1.345*** (0.375)Environmental quality - - -0.931* (0.507) quietness - - -2.067*** (0.283) Active tourism - - -4.173*** (0.606) Helth tourism - - 2.825** (1.116) Theme park - - 1.643** (0.765) Golf - - 9.846*** (1.014) Other sports - - -1.840* (1.023) Nightlife - - 4.274*** (0.633) Shopping - - 5.169*** (0.628) New place - - -1.311*** (0.454) Ease of Traveling - - -2.916*** (0.409) Price -4.663*** (0.888) For Kids -1.893*** (0.529) Previous visits -0.044*** (0.006) 0.021*** (0.005) Observations 53608 53608 R2 0.842 0.718 Chi2 2.89e+05 1.37e+05
  34. 34. pa variables pal variables Equation 1 (origin) Equation 2 (destination) Equation 1 (origin) Equation 2 (destination) parameter Std. desv. parameter Std. desv. parameter Std. desv. parameter Std. desv.(Flight(F))-5 stars -7.606 (8.862) 130.161*** (6.950) (Flight(F))-5 stars 1.156 (5.086) -11.154*** (3.652)hotel hotel-LCC(Flight(F))-4 stars 14.800** (6.825) 90.253*** (6.651) (Flight(F))-4 stars -1.386 (3.192) -12.686*** (2.316)hotel hotel- LCC(Flight(F))-3 stars 17.171*** (6.458) 73.906*** (6.276) (Flight(F))-3 stars 3.858 (3.731) -8.354*** (2.664)hotel hotel- LCC(Flight(F))-apartment 16.103*** (5.680) 65.531*** (5.709) (Flight(F))- -2.086 (1.908) -1.446 (1.379) apartment- LCC(Flight(F))-friends 25.071*** (4.992) 44.614*** (5.398) (Flight(F))-friends -4.040*** (1.239) 2.127** (0.907)and family and family- LCC (Flight(F))-other- LCC -4.443* (2.559) 1.667 (1.850)(Flight(F))-other 27.826*** (5.406) 49.915*** (5.872)(F+Accommodation( 102.242*** (7.306) 72.965*** (12.194) (F+Accommodation( -0.897 (5.161) -16.616*** (3.726)A))-5 stars hotel A))-5 stars hotel- LCC(F+Accommodation( 75.679*** (5.402) 47.179*** (9.028) (F+Accommodation( -8.813*** (2.112) 0.878 (1.623)A))-4 stars hotel A))-4 stars hotel- LCC(F+Accommodation( 56.268*** (5.353) 49.695*** (7.786) (F+Accommodation( -9.360*** (1.782) 2.416* (1.380)A))-3 stars hotel A))-3 stars hotel- LCC(F+Accommodation( 53.837*** (5.216) 48.885*** (7.576) (F+Accommodation( -7.815*** (0.721) 1.704** (0.690)A))-apartment A))-apartment- LCC(F+Accommodation( 51.411*** (5.431) 46.114*** (7.297) (F+Accommodation( -3.971 (2.607) 1.119 (1.888)A))-other A))-other- LCC(F+A+Breakfast(B))-5 114.416*** (6.140) 57.306*** (12.255) (F+A+Breakfast(B))-5 -10.057*** (2.732) 2.299 (2.054)stars hotel stars hotel- LCC (F+A+ Breakfast(B))- -10.735*** (2.151) 1.717 (1.701)(F+A+ Breakfast(B))- 89.794*** (5.544) 49.033*** (10.086) 4 stars hotel- LCC4 stars hotel(F+A+ Breakfast(B))- 70.638*** (5.504) 47.437*** (8.704) (F+A+ Breakfast(B))- -6.020* (3.226) 5.539** (2.318)3 stars hotel 3 stars hotel- LCC(F+A+ Breakfast(B))- 66.021*** (5.388) 46.611*** (8.391) (F+A+ Breakfast(B))- -10.409*** (2.749) -0.433 (2.117)apartment apartment- LCC(F+A+ Breakfast(B))- 83.573*** (13.895) 30.455** (12.910) (F+A+ Breakfast(B))- -24.301 (16.176) 24.828** (11.634)other other- LCC
  35. 35. pa variables pal variables Equation 1 (origin) Equation 2 (destination) Equation 1 (origin) Equation 2 (destination) parameter Std. desv. parameter Std. desv. parameter Std. desv. parameter Std. desv. (F+A+half -9.156*** (2.639) 1.914 (1.981)(F+A+half 127.901*** (5.373) 35.821*** (12.315) board(HB))-5 starsboard(HB))-5 stars hotel- LCChotel (F+A+ half -8.990*** (1.085) 3.986*** (0.909)(F+A+ half 90.219*** (5.014) 35.368*** (9.572) board(HB))-4 starsboard(HB))-4 stars hotel- LCChotel (F+A+ half -2.623 (2.001) 0.427 (1.444)(F+A+ half 71.111*** (5.075) 38.490*** (8.404) board(HB))-3 starsboard(HB))-3 stars hotel- LCChotel (F+A+ half -9.585*** (2.265) 5.225*** (1.681)(F+A+ half 72.649*** (5.097) 37.799*** (8.478) board(HB))-board(HB))- apartment- LCCapartment (F+A+ half -3.286 (11.397) -8.374 (8.212)(F+A+ half 77.778*** (9.290) 38.801*** (10.334) board(HB))-other-board(HB))-other LCC(F+A+HB+Dinner(D)) 129.789*** (5.914) 29.751** (12.363) (F+A+HB+Dinner(D))- -14.699** (7.224) 10.954** (5.222)-5 stars hotel 5 stars hotel- LCC(F+A+HB+Dinner(D)) 92.318*** (5.056) 31.847*** (9.567) (F+A+HB+Dinner(D))- -3.556 (2.693) -0.034 (1.953)-4 stars hotel 4 stars hotel- LCC(F+A+HB+Dinner(D)) 80.284*** (5.354) 33.219*** (8.897) (F+A+HB+Dinner(D))- -2.614 (4.199) -0.471 (3.028)-3 stars hotel 3 stars hotel- LCC(F+A+HB+Dinner(D)) 71.242*** (5.676) 34.092*** (8.427) (F+A+HB+Dinner(D))- -4.008 (4.300) 7.506** (3.083)-apartment apartment- LCC(F+A+HB+Dinner(D)) 129.932*** (5.687) 22.668* (12.160) (F+A+HB+Dinner(D))- -8.843 (7.152) 5.843 (5.171)-other other- LCC(F+A+All inclusive)-5 125.542*** (5.194) 21.548* (11.597) (F+A+All inclusive)-5 -10.666*** (3.727) 0.679 (2.770)stars hotel stars hotel- LCC(F+A+ All inclusive)-4 99.646*** (4.724) 22.534** (9.727) (F+A+ All inclusive)-4 -8.748*** (1.036) 3.123*** (0.873)stars hotel stars hotel- LCC(F+A+ All inclusive)-3 89.705*** (4.792) 25.560*** 9.171) (F+A+ All inclusive)-3 -13.828*** (1.557) 4.150*** (1.370)stars hotel stars hotel- LCC(F+A+ All inclusive)- 82.958*** (4.923) 29.942*** (8.891) (F+A+ All inclusive)- -14.490*** (1.773) 5.059*** (1.491)apartment apartment- LCC(F+A+ All inclusive)- 136.551*** (5.551) 14.949 (12.291) (F+A+ All inclusive)- -20.593*** (5.716) 7.985* (4.276)other other- LCC
  36. 36. Results: reduced form 4 exporigini = [( β1γ 2 + β 2 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]incomei + ∑ [( β1γ 3t + β 3t ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]termit t =1 2011 31 + ∑ [(β 1 + β 4 y ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] yeariy + ∑ [( β1γ 5 h + β 5 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] paih y = 2009 h =1 31 7 + ∑ [( β1γ 6 h + β 6 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] palih + ∑ [( β1γ 7 d + β 7 d ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]destinationid h =1 d =1 4 5 + ∑ [( β1γ 8 r + β8 r ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] partyir + ∑ [( β1γ 9 r + β 9 r ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] peopleio r =1 o =1 16 + ∑ [ β1γ 10 m / (1 − β1γ 1 )]motivationim + [( β1γ 11 + β11 ) / (1 − β11γ 1 )] previousi m =1 +[ β11 / (1 − β11γ 21 )]ei + [1/ (1 − β11γ 21 )]ui 4 expisland i = [(γ 1 β 2 + γ 2 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]incomei + ∑ [(γ 1 β 3t + γ 3t ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]termit t =1 2011 31 + ∑ [(γ β 1 4y ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] yeariy + ∑ [(γ 1β 5 h + γ 5 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] paih y = 2009 h =1 31 7 + ∑ [(γ 1β 6 h + γ 6 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] palih + ∑ [(γ 1 β 7 d + γ 7 d ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]destinationid h =1 d =1 4 5 + ∑ [(γ 1β 8 r + γ 8 r ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] partyir + ∑ [(γ 1β 9 r + γ 9 r ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] peopleio r =1 o =1 16 + ∑ [γ 10 m / (1 − β1γ 1 )]motivationim + [(γ 1β11 + γ 11 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]vecesi m =1 +[γ 1 / (1 − β1γ 1 )]ui + [1 / (1 − β1γ 1 )]ei
  37. 37. Results: origin Non-LCC: euros per person and night 3,2 or 1 Family or 5 stars 4 stars Apartment Other stars friends Only flight (F) 76,69 75,63 67,59 60,91 57,25 63,81(F) + Accommodation 162,16 115,56 95,48 92,23 87,71 (A)(F+A) + Breakfast (B) 165,53 132,56 110,08 104,38 113,44 (F+A)+Half Board 166,55 124,09 104,76 106,03 112,42 (HB) (F+A+HB)+Dinner 164,69 124,14 111,57 102,03 160,22 (D)(F+A)+ All Inclusive 154,57 126,24 117,10 112,42 162,57
  38. 38. Results: origin LCC: euros per person and night with respect to non-LCC 3,2 or 1 Family or 5 stars 4 stars Apartment Other stars friends Only flight (F) -6,01 -9,85 -1,15 -3,28 -3,13 -3,88(F) + Accommodation -11,88 -9,29 -8,89 -7,63 -3,71 (A)(F+A) + Breakfast (B) -9,75 -10,89 -3,11 -11,93 -10,94 (F+A)+Half Board -8,99 -7,45 -2,66 -7,30 -9,16 (HB) (F+A+HB)+Dinner -9,28 -4,00 -3,23 0,43 -6,07 (D)(F+A)+ All Inclusive 11,49 -7,74 -12,76 -12,90 -17,81
  39. 39. Results: destination Non-LCC: euros per person and night 3,2 or 1 Family or 5 stars 4 stars Apartment Other stars friends Only flight (F) 144,09 103,99 86,18 76,59 55,01 61,50(F) + Accommodation 102,42 68,17 67,04 65,64 62,04 (A)(F+A) + Breakfast (B) 87,37 73,11 67,43 65,57 51,06 (F+A)+Half Board 66,07 57,91 57,52 57,06 59,22 (HB) (F+A+HB)+Dinner 59,66 54,39 53,48 52,62 51,77 (D)(F+A)+ All Inclusive 49,62 45,46 46,83 50,36 44,48
  40. 40. Results: destination LCC: euros per person and nights with respect to non-LCC 3,2 or 1 Family or 5 stars 4 stars Apartment Other stars friends Only flight (F) -12,24 -14,48 -8,56 -2,04 1,56 0,96(F) + Accommodation -18,77 -0,81 0,80 0,32 0,45 (A)(F+A) + Breakfast (B) 0,53 -0,26 4,97 -2,60 22,84 (F+A)+Half Board 0,28 2,63 -0,06 3,90 -10,04 (HB) (F+A+HB)+Dinner 9,27 -0,76 -1,06 7,58 4,74 (D)(F+A)+ All Inclusive -1,41 1,72 1,83 2,72 4,75
  41. 41. Results: origin LCC: euros by mean nights and mean party size (with respect to non-LCC) 3,2 or 1 Family or 5 stars 4 stars Apartment Other stars friends Only flight (F) -92,36 -187,05 -16,46 -84,81 -70,97 -99,72(F) + Accommodation -196,67 -167,03 -173,60 -179,97 0,00 -106,30 (A)(F+A) + Breakfast (B) -145,82 -159,24 -40,22 -208,11 0,00 -195,27 (F+A)+Half Board -169,31 -136,13 -47,31 -146,99 0,00 -168,91 (HB) (F+A+HB)+Dinner -138,67 -66,16 -54,47 9,38 0,00 -112,71 (D)(F+A)+ All Inclusive 202,91 -152,33 -248,29 -285,26 0,00 -362,25
  42. 42. Results: destination LCC: euros by mean nights and mean party size (with respect to non-LCC) 3,2 or 1 Family or 5 stars 4 stars Apartment Other stars friends Only flight (F) -188,27 -274,78 -122,36 -52,78 35,38 24,74(F) + Accommodation -310,80 -14,54 15,64 7,52 0,00 12,76 (A)(F+A) + Breakfast (B) 7,91 -3,81 64,31 -45,35 0,00 407,73 (F+A)+Half Board 5,30 48,11 -0,99 78,45 0,00 -185,13 (HB) (F+A+HB)+Dinner 138,56 -12,58 -17,83 165,83 0,00 88,01 (D)(F+A)+ All Inclusive -24,86 33,78 35,68 60,04 0,00 96,59
  43. 43. Results: total  31 post-LCC in origin: nshr *  ∑ [( β1γ 5 h + β 5 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* pa h * q h * sz h + [( β1γ 2 + β 2 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* income nlc  +  h =1   31  shr *  ∑ ( [( β1γ 6 h + β 6 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] + [( β1γ 5 h + β5 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]) * palh * q h * sz h + [( β1γ 2 + β 2 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* incomelc   h =1  31previous-LCC in origin: ∑ [( β γ 1 5h + β 5 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* pa h * q h * sz h + [( β1γ 2 + β 2 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* income nlc h =1  31 post-LCC in destination: nshr *  ∑ [(γ 1 β5 h + γ 5 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* pa h * q h * sz h + [(γ 1 β 2 + γ 2 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* income nlc  +  h =1   31  shr *  ∑ ( [(γ 1β 5 h + γ 5 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )] + [(γ 1β 6 h + γ 6 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]) * palh * q h * sz h + [(γ 1β 2 + γ 2 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* incomelc   h =1  31previous-LCC in destination: ∑ [(γ β 1 5h + γ 5 h ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* pa h * q nlc * sz nlc + [(γ 1β 2 + γ 2 ) / (1 − β1γ 1 )]* income nlc h =1
  44. 44. Results: total -181.67 euros on average per origin travel and party -170.44 euros on average per destination travel and party -352.11 euros on average per travel and party
  45. 45. Conclusion:- There are a change in tourist behaviour. (Reweighting effects).- LCC tourist spend more in destination per person and night.- But, spend less nights.- And, the party size remain equal to non-LCC tourist.- The overall results is that LCC tourists spend less in destination.
  46. 46. “ Doy lo que tengo, queaquellos capaces de hacermás hagan su más, como yo hago mi menos” Federico Inchausti, cabeza pensante delTIDES (alguno tenía que haber…)

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