Overview of Theory of Change Approach
Michael Kidoido
Maziwa Zaidi review & planning meeting
31 March – 1 April 2015 at Giraffe Ocean View Hotel, Dar es Salaam,
Tanzania
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

The reality
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

What is a Theory of Change?
As it says!
• An ongoing process of reflection to explore change and how it
happens – and what that means for the part we play in a
particular context, sector and/or with a group of people:
– It considers a programme or project within a wider analysis of
how change comes about.
– It makes us explain our understanding of change – but also
challenges us to explore it further.
• The focus is on what we think will change for whom, not
on what we plan to do.
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

In other words…
• Thinking about real changes for real
people
• Applying common sense systematically
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

The ToC process – for planning and accountability…
1. Research and
describe how you
think changes
happens in the
contexts that you
are working in
2. Identify your
specific role in
contributing to
these changes
3. Develop a causal
pathway illustrating
how your efforts
will contribute to
identified changes4. Identify the
assumptions that
will need to be
tested through life
of programme
5. Continuously
monitor change and
your change
pathway; and test
assumptions
6. Critically reflect
on your pathway
and your role in
the light of
emerging changes
(expected and
unexpected)
…which works at all levelsIsabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

Developing our Change Pathway
• This relates directly to your understanding of how
change happens (Step 1)
• It describes in detail your unique ways of understanding
and addressing these issues, including:
– Who you work with
– How you work with them
– To achieve or influence what changes
– The assumptions that you have made in designing this pathway
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

INTERMEDIATE CHANGES
FOR DIFFERENT TARGET GROUPS
(Your indirect sphere of influence)
The Elements – building blocks
IMMEDIATE CHANGES
FOR DFFERENT TARGET GROUPS
(your direct sphere of influence)
Strategy:
What you do
with key
stakeholders
Take up and
involvement by
these
stakeholder
groups
Changes for target groups
they are working with e.g.
knowledge, attitudes ,
skills, systems, relationships
... Supporting deeper changes for
different target groups in e.g.
livelihoods practices , policies,
allocations, operations
Adapted from
Morton, 2012,
Montague, 2011 Isabel Vogel and
Maureen O'Flynn
Informed
by context:
Socio-economic,
political,
Technological
factors
Existing policies,
practices, beliefs
Actors,
networks in
research,
policy and
practice, power
Capacity of
target
groups to
respond
Receptiveness
of context
Organizations,
resources,
systems, skills
Vision
DEEPER LASTING
CHANGES FOR
BENEFICIARIES
Key questions :
•How do changes link and support
each other?
•Who/what else helps or hinders

Important things to note
ToC is a process and an
approach, not a tool
Theories of Change come in
all shapes, no ‘right’ version
Ownership and buy in
from all key stakeholders
is essential
You need energy and appetite
to develop ToC – choose your
moment wisely!
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

The relationship between ToC and Accountability
1.Research and
describe how you think
changes happens in the
contexts that you are
working in
2. Identify your
specific role in
contributing to these
changes
3. Develop a causal
pathway illustrating
how your efforts will
contribute to
identified changes4. Identify the
assumptions that will
need to be tested
through life of
programme
5. Continuously
monitor change and
your change pathway;
and test assumptions
6. Critically reflect on
your pathway and
your role in the light
of emerging changes
(expected and
unexpected)
What? How?
Why?
So what?
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

Using ToC with log frames can help
with this tension!
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

The How

Is turned into a diagram
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

Then elements were data collection
framework
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
Change no. 1: Research Collaborators effectively include program issues into their
activities and budget planning
Assumptions set I: Our program activities are in line with research collaborator’s
activities
Areas of Enquiry Evaluation/
Learning
questions
Indicato
rs
Targeted
data
sources
Data
collection
methods
Who will collect
the data?

Two notes of caution…
Theories of change do not provide magic
solutions!!
1. They need time and resources – you need to
choose your moments for embarking on this
journey wisely
1. If you don’t take participation and ownership
seriously, your ToC ( at whatever level) becomes
yet another paper exercise.... which adds
nothing to organisational learning

Some perceived benefits
• Builds common understanding of how and why you do what you
do
• Strengthens the clarity, direction, effectiveness and focus of
programmes
• Provides a framework for review, learning and re-design.
• Improves partnership
• Supports organisational development
• Helps people communicate what they do so it can be more easily
understood by others
• Empowers people to become more active and involved in
programme design and implementation
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn