Better lives through livestock
Theory of Change: Development and
Implementation of Tanzania Livestock
Master Plan
Joseph Karugia
Principal Scientist - Agricultural Economist and Policy Expert
PIL/ILRI
SAPLING Inception and TLMP ToC Validation Workshop
17 March 2022, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

KLMP Time plan
Introduction…
• MoL&F, ILRI and Dalberg collaboration to support
implementation and M&E of TLMP
• Building capacity of Private Sector Desk
• Prioritization of investments by public and private sectors
• Development of a monitoring, learning, and evaluation
framework
• Advocacy, engagement and coalition-building
• Need to articulate a theory of change of TLMP
• map out the expected pathways or links between
interventions and intended impacts, and develop performance
indicators thank link to ASDP II M&E frameworks and CAADP
BR

KLMP Time plan
Introduction contd …
• LMP provides the evidence-base and empirical guidance to
the government, private sector, and development partners
on where best to invest in the livestock sector to achieve
national development goals, CAADP, SDGS
• baseline analysis of the livestock sector
• Long-term Livestock Strategy (15 years)
• Value chain specific investment road maps
• “by year 2025 there should be a livestock sector, which to a large extent shall be
commercially run, modern and sustainable, using improved and highly productive livestock
to ensure food security, improved income for households and the nation while conserving
the environment”.

4
Tanzania LMP Theory of Change
Year 1-2
Outputs
• Increased productivity at
animal/household/region/
country level as a result of
better feed, less disease
and genetic improvements
• Reduction in post-harvest
losses
• Increased livestock
production and supply of
animal source foods
• Improved quality of
livestock products
• Increased livestock trade
• Increased income at the
household level
Short-term
outcomes
Medium-term
outcomes Development
impacts
sphere of influence
sphere of control
sphere of interest
• Chronic
underinvestment in
livestock development
in Tanzania hence
public and private
sector investors and
development partners
need support to make
the investments to
transform the livestock
sector
• Sector’s slow growth
undermines its ability
to support the
livelihoods of millions
of the poor (50% of
Tanzania population)
who depend on
livestock for their food
security, nutrition, and
incomes
Challenge
Activities/
Inputs
Increased livestock
contribution to GDP
Poverty reduction
Industrial and manufacturing
sector (based on livestock raw
materials)
Food security and nutrition
Exports and foreign exchange
earnings
• Capacity of local experts
enhanced
• More and better-quality
investments by public and
private sectors and
development partners
• Alignment of public, private
and development partner
investments
• Targeted interventions by
location, commodity, value
chain
• Change in existing policies,
laws, and regulations
• New policies, laws, and
regulations
>Year 6
National
development
goals
and
Vision
2025
• Capacity building of local
experts and public sector
officials
• Baseline analysis of the
livestock sector
• Identification of priority
value chains and
technological/policy/
institutional intervention
options
• Ex-ante impact evaluation
of interventions
• Building a coalition of
change
• Training modules and
reports
• Evidence-based Livestock
Sector Analysis Report
• Evidence-based Long-term
Livestock Sector Strategy
• Evidence-based
documentation of priority
value chains and value
chain specific investment
roadmaps
• Documentation of TLMP
implementation modalities
and monitoring, evaluation
and learning plan
Year 2-4 Year 4-6
Employment opportunities for
men, women, and youth
Environmental sustainability-
GHG emissions/climate
change related impacts

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TLMP

THANK YOU