The “Elephant in the Room” Issues in
pastoralism research: An informal
conversation
Peter D. Little and Waktole Tiki
Academic Workshop on Mobile Pastoralism, Index
Insurance, Computational Sustainability and Policy
Innovations for the Arid and Semi-arid Lands of East Africa
ILRI Campus, Nairobi Kenya, June 10-11, 2015

Goals of the presentation
• Are there some big fundamental issues and trends in
pastoralism research that are missed in micro-level, project
based research? I will discuss 10. It builds on an earlier
paper I wrote for a volume by Catley, Lind, and Scoones
(2012).
• Present some of the evidence from our current research
program on “Climate-induced vulnerability: Pastoralism and
livestock marketing chains in southern Ethiopia and
northeastern Kenya (CHAINS). Not heavy on empirics!
• Have an informal conversation!

1. Population Issue
• Town and settlement growth
• Demography of mobile pastoralists vs sedentary
pastoralists
• Labor absorptive capacity of
Pastoralism: low?
• In the Borana case settle-
ments often in dry season
Grazing (deep well areas)
• Impacts on grazing patterns?

2. Towns matter in pastoral areas
• For diversification: employment and
investment
• Links to pastoral sector
• Markets
• Bring in large numbers of non-pastoralists
• Politics and policy!

3. Governance and Democracy Issue
• Related to population and town growth
• Mobile pastoralists becomes minority in its
own areas?
• Implications for decentralization—”voice of
pastoralists?”
• Elections and democracy

4. Basic Services Issue
• Health, water, and education always rank
highest priorities in participatory assessments.
• What are we missing here?
• Where do we start?

5. Education Issue
• Formal education matters for jobs—productive
diversification.
• Political representation and giving a voice to
communities.
• Fundamental tasks require literacy—basic math,
etc.
• How to deliver education?
• The costs of education in loss of labor, settlement,
etc.
• Promote sub-division of commons? Youth vs
elders

6. Employment issue
• Youth and unemployment
• Rural Informality (enormous employment)

6. Employment issue (cont)
• Do we understand the employment
multipliers of livestock trade, pastoralism, etc.

> 300 BUSINESSES AT HAROBAKE
MARKET, BORANA, ETHIOPIA

7. Domestic markets matter
Where is the highest value market?
Figure 2. Average prices for mature male cattle: source Ethiopian livestock market information system
Source: W. Tiki, 2014, p. 23

8. The credit Issue
• Credit flows up the market chain (from smallest
to largest traders)
• Default on credit and risk is high—the smallest
traders are hurt the most—more than 30 percent
of traders experience credit default
Credit defaulters, amount (birr) in the second round of interviews
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Amount lost (in Birrs) 27 960 2000000 311709.3 545477
Times defaulted 27 1 6 1.2 0.97
Number of defaulters 27 1 5 1.3 0.92
Source: W. Tiki, Third year annual report, 2014.

9. The Herd Structure Issue: why so
little change?
Evidence: Dairy and breeding herds, Borana,
Ethiopia, 2013
Male
camels
Female
camels
Male
cattle
Female
cattle
Male
goats
Female
goats
Total
number 35 100 294 1313 246 964
% of
herd 26 % 74% 18.5% 81.5% 20.5% 79.5%
SOURCE: DATA FROM CHAINS STUDY, 2013

ANIMAL Export Regional Cross-
Bordera
National
Domestic
Local Domestic
Cattle 1. Bulls 3-7 year
340-380 kg
1. Bulls < 3
years;
2. Large Oxen
and Bulls> 7
years
3. Heifers
1. Bulls (non-
export quality)
and oxen 3-7 yr.
2. Bulls > 7
years
3. Cows > 8
years
1. Bulls > 7
years
2. Cows > 8
years
3. Oxen > 7
years
Camel 1. Males 3-8 years 1. Males 3-8
years
Minimal Minimal
Goats 1. Males 18-24
months and 24-32
kg
1. Males 18-24
months and 24-
32 kg
1. Males > 2
years
2. Females >4
years
1. Males > 2
years
2. Females >4
years
Sheep 1. Males 18-24
months and 24-32
kg
1. Males 18-24
months and 24-
32 kg
1. Males > 2
years
2. Females >4
yrs
1. Males > 2
years
2. Females >4
yrs
Contrast: Many Markets demand male animals?
Southern Ethiopian Livestock Markets, 2013

Pastoralist Bush trader (male animals)
Borana, 2013 Southern Somalia, 1988

Bush trader selling for export trade,
Borana, Ethiopia

10. Timing of livestock sales matter
• Determines benefits for producers
• Why do herders sell—still little change in past
30 years.
• What has changed?

0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Kanicharo Dikale Total
PercentageofHHReasons
Research Sites
Figure Reasons for Selling Livestock by Study Locations
To buy clothes for the family
To pay tax
To buy food for the family
To cover medication expense of the family
To cover children's school expense
To build a house
To buy water for livestock
For ceremonial expense (wedding)
To buy other animal
To pay back loan
Animal's health problem/sick
To buy livestock feed (salt......)
To buy farm tools
To pay for veterinary services/medicine
To buy mobile phone
Source: CHAINS Data, 2013
CHALLENGE The ‘why’ & ‘when’ herders sell animals

Gradual Asset Deaccumulation Accelerated Deaccumulation Massive Deaccumulation Reaccumulation
Accumulation (+)
Decummulation (-) Asset Poor
Households
Asset Rich
Households
Livelihood Strategies Sell livestock
Grain stocks decline
Food expenditures increase
Search for off-farm employ’t
Conserve cash
Sell wood
Borrow from merchants and family
Maintain and invest in social networks
Livestock distress sales and weight loss;
livestock consumed
Consume wild roots/leaves
 search for off-farm emply’t
Out-migration
Go to live with relatives
Little investment in social networks
Sell h’hold items+implements
Increased sharecropping
Consume seed
Extreme livestock mortality
Grain stocks dry up
Homes deconstructed to sell wood and
corrugated iron
Outmigration if health allows
Families and communities unravel
Social networks difficult to maintain
Unknown
Market Characteristics Land rental rates increase
Borrowing costs increase
Wage rate declines slightly
Grain prices rise slightly
Livestock prices begin to decline
Diets and labor productivity maintained
Wage rates fall; land rental rates rise
Labor demand declines
Grain prices spike in thin mkts
Livestock prices plummet
 giving from the well-off to poor w/in
community
Borrowing costs spike
Land rental rates fall
Wood/livestock prices collapse
Cereal prices uncertain due to food aid
Community network collapses
Malnutrition, disease, death
Unknown
Climate/Drought Risk (multi-year cycles) (Roth and Little, 1998)

• Improve local
bargaining/price and
timing of sales–
•Address feed problem

0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Abattoirs Export traders Local traders Local pastoralists
PercentageShareofBuyers
Buyers
Livestock Buyers (Access issue for herders), Borana, ETH
Buyers

Mobility affects market access: Fixed markets are not
where best grazing is, esp in droughts
(map by Sarah Guagliardo)

Uneven Impacts and Losses due to Feed
shortage (drought)
Photos by Dejene N. Debsu

ASANTE SANA
Acknowledgements:
Support for this research was provided by the Climate-Induced Vulnerability
and Pastoralist Livestock Marketing Chains in southern Ethiopia and northeastern
Kenya (CHAINS) Project of the Innovation Lab for Adapting Livestock Systems to Climate
Change (ALS-CC) Collaborative Research Program (USAID Grant No. EEM-A-00-10-
00001). The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
Thanks also due to members of CHAINS project:
Dejene Negassa Debsu
Polly Ericksen
Uriel Kitron
Hussein A. Mahmoud
Workneh Negatu
Carla Roncoli