The Context for Future Scenarios Analysis
Stephen Michael
(Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Development)
Tanzanian Livestock Master Plan, Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
Meeting, Colosseum Hotel, Dar Es Salaam, 23 June 2016
NOT FOR CITATION

Quantitative and Stakeholder Process of Doing the LSA
“Future Scenario Analysis”
• Creating the herd and sector models required “quantitative” data
analysis, but consultation on parameters with livestock experts
• Dynamic herd and economical models are built to do the 15 year
livestock sector analysis (LSA) –baseline, projections and foresight
analysis
• Stakeholders through the TAC will need to agree upon the national
development objectives
• The production and consumption projections to 2031 (quantitative
analysis) will be used to help identify the potential scenario
interventions
• To choose the interventions (technology and policy) for the scenario
analysis “stakeholder” involvement will essential
• The TAC will approve the interventions and help ensure the scenario
results are useful – realistic and relevant

Quantitative and Stakeholder Process of Doing the
LSA “Future Scenario Analysis” ……………
Using the livestock sector model built on a herd model, potential LMP intervention impacts will
be assessed against Tanzania national development objectives -- measured by livestock
development indicators.
The national development objectives (indicator in parentheses) are the following:
•Reducing poverty (household income)
•Achieving food security (production-consumption balance)
•Contributing to economic growth (GDP or national income)
•Contributing to exports (foreign exchange earnings)
•Contribute to industrialization (agricultural value addition)
The LSA is expected to demonstrate the potential of the livestock sector to reach national
development goals

Ethiopia experience-Projected red meat production and
consumption balance (thousand tons), (2013-2028)
Note: C=Consumption; Po=Production without intervention; and Pw=Production with
intervention.
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Productionorconsumption(Thousandtons)
2013 2018 2023 2028
Year
Po Pw
C
Source: Based on LSIPT results.

When add Poultry -- projected chicken meat production and
consumption balance (thousand tons), (2013-2028)
Note: C=Consumption; Po=Production without intervention; and Pw=Production with
intervention.
0200400600
2013 2018 2023 2028
Year
PC PP0
PP1
Source: Based on LSIPT results.
C
Pw
Po

Projected all meat production and consumption balance (with
poultry) (thousand tons), (2013-2028)10001500200025003000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Year
AC AP0
AP1
Source: Based on LSIPT results.
Note: C=Consumption; Po=Production without intervention; and Pw=Production with
intervention.
C
Pw
Po

PLEASE APPROVE THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OBJECTIVES
The national development objectives (indicator in parentheses) could
include the following:
•Reducing poverty (household income)
•Achieving food security (production-consumption balance)
•Contributing to economic growth (GDP or national income)
•Contributing to exports (foreign exchange earnings)
•Contribute to industrialization (agricultural value addition)
The LSA is expected to demonstrate the potential of the livestock
sector to reach national development goals

Thank you