Africa’s agricultural development promises
much more than food security
Jimmy Smith, Director General,
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya
With Dolapo Enahoro, Susan MacMillan, Shirley Tarawali
University of Illinois, Champaign
12 October 2016

CIMMYT
Mexico City
Mexico
IFPRI
Wash. DC
USA
CIP
Lima
Peru
CIAT
Cali
Colombia
Bioversity
International
Rome Italy
AfricaRice
Cotonou
Benin
IITA
Ibadan
Nigeria
ILRI
Nairobi
Kenya
Addis
Ababa,
Ethiopia
World
Agroforestry
Nairobi
Kenya
ICARDA
Beirut
Lebanon ICRISAT
Patancheru
India
IWMI
Colombo
Sri Lanka
IRRI
Los Banos
Phillippines
World Fish
Penang
Malaysia
CIFOR
Bogor
Indonesia
CGIAR: a global agricultural research partnership
15 CGIAR Research Centres

ILRI: a global livestock mandate
Main campuses: Nairobi and
Addis Ababa
Offices in 16 other countries
About 750 staff
High end biotechnology
(vaccines, genomics, feeds);
food safety and zoonoses;
environment, livelihoods,
policies, markets, gender….
….better lives through livestock…..

How to feed 10 billion people?

Food price crisis 2007/08:
What can we learn?

The crisis:
The doubling of food prices

Food comes from the supermarket
(NOT)

Feeding the World: 60% more food
productivity gains, not expansion
8

Demand for food in Africa
9
59
156
31
115
146
314303
816
2010 2050
Livestock-Derived Foods Grains as Livestock Feed Grains as Food Other Plant-Based Foods
million metric tonnes, projections to 2050
Livestock:
163%
increase

Where is the food coming from?
10

Africa’s food imports:
a major opportunity (lost?)
11
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1970 1990 2010 2030
Oils and oilseeds
Cereals
Meat, Milk, Eggs
Projections on Value of Africa’s food imports to
2030 (million US dollars)
……by 2030, Africa’s net import bill for cereal, livestock, and oilseed products could
increase over 2010s levels by up to 47%, 167% and more than 400%, respectively

The cost of food imports:
much more than money
12

Africa’s untapped potential?
People | Land | Water
13

Food and nutritional security:
the heartland of African agriculture
14

African agriculture:
Beyond food and nutrition security
15
1 044
344
735
208 48 94
AFRICA N AMERICA EUROPE
2010
2 478
433
707
452 52 72
AFRICA N AMERICA EUROPE
Total Population
Youth
2050
Regional projections to 2050, of total and
youth (15 to 24) populations in millions

Global ramifications
16

What’s needed?
A ‘Marshall plan’ for Africa’?
17
Livestock contribute at least 40% of
agricultural GDP in many
African countries
ODA investment in agriculture is less
than 5% of the total, and of that, less
than 5% goes to livestock
In Africa, average government
expenditure on agriculture was 4.7% in
2012.
Only Mali, Senegal and Burkina Faso
spent over 8%, six countries spent
5 – 8%, others all less than 5%

For Illinois?
18

This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
better lives through livestock
ilri.org
ILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions
to the CGIAR system
Artwork from: Artsonia.com