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The developing world’s smallholder livestock sector


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Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Board of the International Federation for Animal Health, Brussels, 25 April 2013

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The developing world’s smallholder livestock sector

  1. 1. The developing world’ssmallholder livestock sectorBoard of the International Federation for Animal Health,Brussels, 25 April 2013Jimmy Smith
  2. 2. The global livestock sector Total animals:17 billion Asset value:$1.4 trillion Employs:1.3 billion people Uses:1/3 of the earth’sice-free surface
  3. 3. 050,000100,000150,000200,00019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008MilliontonsDevelopingDevelopedWhere is the growth?Gains in meat consumption in developing countriesis outpacing that of developed countries and this is expected to continue
  4. 4. Four of the five highest value globalagricultural commodities are livestock products4Source: FAOSTAT, 2010 data
  5. 5. Growing Incomes are a key catalyst to demand growthfor livestock products0204060801001201400 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000Percapitameatconsumpion(kg/year)Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)USJapanChiIndBraRule of thumb:Growth in demand forAnimal source foodsbegins to levels offwhen incomesexceed $10,000.
  6. 6. Percentage increase in demandfor livestock products020406080100120Developing Countries Developed CountriesMeatMilkEggs2000 to 2040IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model resultsFar higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries
  7. 7. Global food production: From where?Herreret al. 2009Developing-countrymixed crop-livestocksystems, predominantlysmallholders, supply thelarge proportion oflivestock products
  8. 8. By 2040, 70% of global beef and milk will be producedin developing countries by smallholders in transition40455055606570758085902000 2040BeefPorkLambPoultry MeatEggsMilkIFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results%
  9. 9. Source: (Steinfeld et al. 2006)Large productivity gaps between richand poor countries are not closingSome developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk4111021517422639713809046350Africa Latin America South Asia IndustrializedCountriesMilk(kg/cow/yr)1980 2005
  10. 10. Animal disease remains a key constraintYoung AdultCattle 22% 6%Shoat 28% 11%Poultry >50% 30%Source: Otte & Chilonda; IAEAAnnual mortality of African livestockAround half due to preventable or curable diseases
  11. 11. 012345678Billion$lostyearlySouth AsiaAfricaAnnual losses from selected diseases –Africa and South AsiaEstimates from BMGFAfricaSouth Asia
  12. 12. Modeling gains from dairy technology interventions -Value of change in milk yield and herd growth0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%Genetics Feed AnimalHealthHerdMgmtPercentincreaseduetointerventionReducing disease can increase milk yields up to 350% -greater than improving feed, genetics or managementSource: ILRI 2010
  13. 13. Smallholder livestock keepersare competitive1. East African dairy In Kenya, 1 million smallholders keep the largest dairy herd in Africa(larger than South Africa) The lowest-cost milk producers globally are found in Uganda Small-scale Kenyan dairy producers get above-normal profits of 19-28%in addition to non-market benefits (finance, insurance, manure,traction) of a further 16-21% (source: SDP-ILRI, 2005) Small- and large-scale poultry and dairy producers in Kenya have thesame levels of efficiency and profits (source: Omiti et al., 2004)
  14. 14. 2. Vietnam pig industry 95% of production is by producerswith fewer than 100 animals Pig producers with 1-2 sows havelower unit costs than those with morethan 4 sows (ILRI 2010) Models show industrial pig productioncould grow to meet no more than 12%of national supply in the next 10 years Smallholders will continue to providemost of the country’s pork for years tocomeSmallholder livestock keepersare competitive (cont.)
  15. 15. Key points related tosmallholder competitiveness Smallholders will continue to supply most of thelivestock products in most developing countries There will be different trajectories of livestock growth,with strongest dynamics in Asia In many regions,smallholders will increasinglycommercialize theiroperations Demand foranimal healthinputs will increase16
  16. 16. Increasing opportunities foranimal health inputs17As smallholder producers in the developing worldcontinue to commercialize, they increasingly payto reduce their animal disease burdens.
  17. 17. Potential private-public synergies Joint public-private testing of innovations:– Innovative franchise models are providing smallholders withaccess to agro-vets (‘Sidai’ in Kenya)– New low-cost, pen-side diagnostic tools are providingdiagnostics for smallholder settings– New mobile phone systems are helping farmers monitorthe health and reproduction of their animals (‘iCow’ in Kenya) Enlightened self interest for poor and rich alike:Research on some disease of the South (e.g., African swine fever) can reducethreats of those diseases moving to the Northdue to climate change and increased trade
  18. 18. Challenges for private-public partnershipsDifferent animal health models and trading systems:− Need to understand demand for inputs and then test productapplications− Need innovative, low-cost products that meet smallholderneeds− Need new delivery systems that match smallholder settingsand infrastructure--Risk based rather than hazard based food safety regulations--Commodity based trade
  19. 19. Key messages Demand for livestock source foods is growing faster inthe in the developing than the developed world Smallholder producers are now and will continue to be alarge part of the supply response for decades to come Animal health constraints are binding in developingcountries As smallholder systems modernize, their need foranimal health and other inputs will grow New opportunities exist for synergies between privateand public investments in animal health
  20. 20. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit isgiven to ILRI.better lives through