Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Global Food Security Consortium Spring Symposium: Closing the Yield Gap, Ames, Iowa, 29–30 April 2014

1. Closing livestock yield gaps
in the developing world:
Imperatives for people and the planet
Global Food Security Consortium Spring Symposium:
Closing the Yield Gap
29–30 April 2014  Ames, Iowa
Jimmy Smith  Director General  ILRI

2. Key messages
1 Unprecedented demand for food, especially animal-source
food, in developing countries will continue to rise
2 No standardized method exists for assessing livestock
yield gaps, but however defined, the gaps are significant
3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestock yield gaps
in developing countries ignored smallholder realities
4 Most milk, meat and eggs in developing countries come from
smallholders and are produced and consumed in the same
country
5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems
present big opportunities to address both technical and
institutional issues, benefiting both people and planet

3. 1 Unprecedented demand for food, especially
animal-source food, in developing countries
will continue to rise

4. By 2050 we will need huge amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat
1bn tonnes more
cereals to 2050
1bn tonnes
dairy each year
460m tonnes
meat each year

5. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
FAO 2013

6. % change in global demand for livestock products:
2000–2030
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
milk beef mutton pork poultry
meat
eggs
FAO 2011
%

7. Change in global and regional demand for food:
Livestock and other commodities
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
developed developing SSA SA
%change2005/07to2050
cereals
root/tuber
meat
dairy
Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

8. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030
Millionmetrictonnes
developing
developed
FAO 2006

9. Consumption of livestock products
to 2050
• Globally:
An overall increase in per capita daily consumption
of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000
• Commodities differ:
– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption
– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption
• Regions differ:
– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie
consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC
– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption
will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC
Herrero et al. 2014

10. 2 No standardized method exists for assessing
livestock yield gaps, but however defined,
the gaps are significant

11. The ‘gaps’ in livestock yield gap assessments
• Unlike the crop sector, no single, standardized
approach exists for assessing livestock yield gaps
• Everyone asks the same questions, e.g.:
– Where are the greatest yield gaps:
which regions, systems, commodities?
– What technical interventions are
most likely to help close these gaps?
• But everyone compares different things, e.g.:
– What to compare:
Amount of product? Asset value? Monetary value?
– And at what scale:
Between developed and developing countries?
Developing countries only? Within countries or systems?

12. Approaches to assessing livestock yield gaps differ
• BMGF Compares yield potentials
between developing and
developed regions
and converts these to
monetary values
• ILRI Compares production from
different livestock genotypes
and production systems
• WUR Uses production ecological
concepts like systems used
to assess crop yield gaps

13. Using monetary values to asses gaps
• Comparing livestock
yields in developing countries
with best-in-class in USA/W Europe
gives a gap of $300 billion
• Comparing livestock yields in developing
countries with similar environments in
Australia/South America gives a gap of
$120 billion
• Comparing the value of interventions
indicates that animal genetics, followed
by health, provide the most significant
potential gains for SS Africa and South Asia
BMGF

14. Using production from different genotypes
and production systems to assess gaps
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Good
health/reprod.
Good
health/poor
reprod.
Poor
health/good
reprod.
Poor
health/poor
reprod.
Annualizedmilkoff-take(litres)
poor nutrition
improved nutrition
D = interactiveD
A
A
A
A
B = reproduction
only
C = health
only
B C
Effects of different management strategies on the
increase in value of annualized milk off-take

15. Using productivity data combined
with modelling to assess gaps
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
%increaseduetointervention
Gains from dairy technology interventions:
Value of change in milk yields only

16. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
%increaseduetointervention
Using productivity data combined
with modelling to assess gaps
Gains from dairy technology interventions:
Value of change in milk yields and herd growth

17. Using technical, market and institutional
interventions to assess gaps
0
10
20
30
40
50
S.Asia dairy E.Africa
dairy
W.Africa
beef
W.Africa
s.ruminants
S'n Africa
small
ruminants
%potentialgainfrom
interventions
Genetics
Health
Feed
0
10
20
30
40
50
%potentialgainfrom
interventions
Mkt access
Input delivery

18. Using production ecological concepts to assess gaps
Van Ittersum and Rabbinge 1997, Van de Ven et al. 2003
With thanks to Simon Oosting and Aart van der Linden
of the Animal and Plant Production Systems groups of Wageningen University

19. Regardless of the approach used,
livestock yield gaps are significant
• Significant gaps exist
• Opportunities to address
livestock yield gaps:
– Technology:
Health, genetics, feed
– Non-technical:
Market access,
input delivery
• Need to target
– By commodity
– By system

20. 0
50
100
150
200
Meatmillionmetric
tonnesperyear
2005/07
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Milkmillionmetric
tonnesperyear
2005/07
2050
Greatest in
Africa and
South Asia
Differences in consumption:
Global meat and milk gaps to close
World Bank, FAO,
ILRI, AU-IBAR 2014

21. 3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestock
yield gaps in developing countries
ignored smallholder realities

22. Why past attempts to close
livestock yield gaps failed
We failed to take sufficient account
of the realities of the users −
the world’s small-scale
livestock producers:
• Environment
• Climate
• Feeds available
• Endemic diseases
• Local market context
• State of infrastructure
• Institutions

23. Exotic genotypes were introduced
into harsh production environments
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Harsh Poor Good
Milkyield(l)
Production environment
Indigenous
X-bred
Exotic

24. Animals are the products of their genes, their
environments and their gene-environment interactions
P = G + E + GE
P is the phenotype The animal we see, its production etc.
G is the genotype The genetic make up of the animal
E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health,
nutrition, husbandry) except the genes
of the animal
GE is the interaction Between the genes and the environment

25. Animals are also influenced by
markets, institutions and policies
P = G + E + GE
P is the phenotype The animal we see, its production etc.
G is the genotype The genetic make up of the animal
E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health,
nutrition, husbandry) except the genes
of the animal
GE is the interaction Between the genes and the environment

26. Policies
Animals are also influenced by
markets, institutions and policies
P = G + E + GE
P is the phenotype The animal we see, its production etc.
G is the genotype The genetic make up of the animal
E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health,
nutrition, husbandry) except the genes
of the animal
GE is the interaction Between the genes and the environment

27. 4 Most milk, meat and eggs in developing
countries come from smallholders and are
produced and consumed in the same country

28. Monogastric production systems are
already in rapid transition to industrial
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050
smallholder
industrial
Europe Latin America Africa/Middle East
Herrero et al. 2014
Over 30% of African
monogastric
production will still be
smallholder in 2050

29. Most food of the world is produced
on small mixed crop-and-livestock farms
Developing-country
mixed crop-livestock
systems, most of them
smallholders, supply
the large proportion
of livestock products

30. These mixed farming systems
produce much of our meat and milk
• Mixed systems are an important source
of ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050
– Europe: 42% mixed temperate
– Latin America: 48% mixed humid
– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
• Mixed systems are an equally important
source of milk
– Over 50% of milk comes from crop-
livestock farms, regardless of the region
– The big increases in milk production
to 2050 will continue to be in mixed
systems, esp. in Africa and Middle East

31. Small-scale mixed crop-livestock
farmers are (surprisingly) competitive
East African dairy
• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd
• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers
• Small- and large-scale Kenyan dairy producers have same
levels of efficiency and profits
Vietnam pig industry
• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals
• Pig producers with 1−2 sows have lower unit costs
than those with more than 4 sows
• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years
• Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

32. 5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder
livestock systems present big opportunities to
address both technical and institutional issues
to benefit both people and the planet

33. We can, and should, respond holistically
to the rising demand for livestock foods
Increase production to benefit poor people and the planet
• People: Equity
– more product for the market = more income
– more benefits for women, who make up 2/3
of the 1 billion poor reliant on livestock
• People: Health and nutrition
– more available and affordable
animal-source foods
– more balanced diets
– risk-based food safety policies
• Planet: Environment
– greater efficiency
– fewer animals
– smaller footprint
– reduced GHGs

34. Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector
Strong growth
Intensifying and
increasingly market
oriented often
transforming smallholder
systems
Fragile growth
Where
remoteness, marginal
land resources or agro
climatic vulnerability
restrict intensification
High growth
with externalities
Intensified livestock
systems with diverse
challenges including
the environment and
human health

35. Trajectory
‘Strong growth’
Sector
Ruminant meat and
milk, esp. in SSA, India
− Pork in some regions
Issues
− Sustainable
productivity
- Market access and
food safety
− Zoonotic outbreaks
Opportunities
Novel approaches
spanning sustainable
productivity, markets,
institutional and policy
issues, risk analyses
‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder and
pastoral systems; little
part in the production
response
− Multiple endemic
diseases
− Zoonoses
− Source of disease
− Movement controls
Mostly public sector
interventions, mitigating
vulnerability, improving
resilience
‘High growth
with
externalities’
Mostly monogastric
− China for all sectors
− Environmental
- Drug resistance
− Climate impacts on
new vector and
pathogen dynamics
− Disease scares
Modalities of operation
with private sector
largely established.
Managing environment
and health risks and
consumer demand
Distinguishing opportunities

36. Strong growth in developing-country
livestock sectors are opportunities
• Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallholder livestock producers,
it’s expected that:
﹣ One-third will find alternate livelihoods
﹣ One-third may or may not remain part of
the transformation of the livestock sector
﹣ One-third will succeed at market-oriented livestock livelihoods
• The on-going transitions in smallholder livestock systems that
will take place in coming decades present opportunities to close
yield gaps not only of commodity levels but also of environment,
equity and health benefits

37. Policies
Animal health
★Vaccines
★Diagnostics
★Delivery systems
Markets & institutions
★New business
arrangements
★Good access to
markets
Health & nutrition
★Risk- not rule-based regulations
★Controlled zoonoses
★Balanced diets
Environment
★High feed efficiency
★Wide use of crop
residues
Feed
★Viable feed markets
★Improved feeds/feed strategies
★Judicious biomass use
Genetics
★Improved local
breeds
★Breeds well-matched
to environments

38. Annual losses from selected diseases
ANIMAL HEALTH
BMGF
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Billion$lostyearly
South Asia
Africa
Africa
South Asia

39. The cost
• Emerging animal disease outbreaks in the last decade: $200bn
• Zoonoses (1998–2009): $6.7bn/yr
More indicators
• Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry
• Global human health market = $1,000 billion
• Global animal health market
(livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion
• Global livestock health market = $13 billion
• Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion
• Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15%
• Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth, India 8 %
Significant costs in developing countries
ANIMAL HEALTH

40. Research-based livestock successes
ANIMAL HEALTH
• Research solutions for animal
diseases:
﹣ Vaccines (East Coast fever)
﹣ Diagnostics
• In Uganda, where pork
consumption is
skyrocketing, and
Vietnam, where pork is the
preferred meat, projects are
enhancing the smallholder pig
value chain and helping these
countries ensure the safety of
their pork products.

41. Vaccines save lives of animals
that increase food security and reduce poverty
ILVAC – a global vaccine initiative
ANIMAL HEALTH
Antibody technologies
Vaccine technologies
Cellular technologies
Diagnostic technologies
Genomic technologies
EastCoastFever
Consortia for research & product development and capacity development
Pestedespetitsruminants
Riftvalleyfever
ILVAC – a vaccine platform
Contagiousbovine
pleuropneumonia
Africanswinefever
Infectious disease
Research: basic & applied
Improved vaccines and
diagnostic tools
Private sector
GALVmed
CRPs
NARS
Inter-gov
agencies

42. Opportunities
FEEDS
• Produce more and better quality
– Crop varieties with improved
residue quality/quantity
– Forages
• Better use available feed
– Via processing (chopping)
– Feed mixtures (rations)
• Import feed into the system
– From areas of surplus to deficit
– Concentrates
• Potential environmental ‘win-win’

43. Research-based livestock successes
FEEDS
• 70% of production cost – FEED
• 70% of feed – CROP RESIDUES
• Potential huge demand for grain for
MONOGASTRICS
• Opportunities:
– Improved crop residue
quantity and quality
– Improved use of crop residues
with other feed resources
– Balancing trade offs in biomass use
– Use of sorghum and other alternates
to maize for monogastrics

44. Matching genotype and environment
BREEDS
Tools based on newly discovered bacterial molecular defence
systems that use proteins to destroy pathogen DNA by slicing it up
open new biological and medical frontiers, allowing quick, efficient
and precise gene editing in any cell or species.
These tools allow targeted, single-base changes to a genome.
With them, we can greatly improve traits of interest using existing
within-species variation for rapid, high-precision cross-breeding.

45. Matching genotype and environment
BREEDS
These molecular systems will help us produce animals
highly suited to a variety of environmental challenges,
such as disease, drought, poor feed:
In the past, making an animal with multiple genetic changes usually
required creating separate animals with single changes and then
crossbreeding them to produce offspring with multiple changes. The
new tools allow multiple genetic changes to be made in one step, by
putting multiple guide RNAs into the cell.
‘It just completely changes the landscape.’. . .
The pace of new discoveries and applications is dizzying.
‘All of this has basically happened in a year…’
− A powerful new way to edit DNA, New York Times, 3 Mar 2014

46. Research-based livestock successes
BREEDS
• Rather than importing exotic breeds
to address livestock yield gaps in
developing countries, which often is
﹣ costly and
﹣ complex
• Opportunities exist to better use
indigenous genetic resources:
﹣ By combining traits in
cross-bred animals
﹣ By better matching
genotypes with environments
• Examples include red Maasai sheep
and cross-bred dairy cows in E Africa

47. Food safety for food
MARKETS
• 90% of animal products are produced
and consumed in the same region
• Over 70% of livestock products
are sold ‘informally’
• There are major opportunities to
ensure that milk, meat and eggs are
safe for consumption (e.g. via
risk assessments and risk- rather
than rule-based regulations)
• ‘Intensifying’ livestock production
systems bring people and animals closer
together, increasing the threat of
zoonotic disease outbreaks and spread

48. • Research evidence for
smallholder dairying included:
﹣ Risk analysis of
informal milk marketing
﹣ Employment and income
benefits for the poor
• Business/market development
links poor livestock producers
and feed suppliers to more
sophisticated input/output
systems
﹣ A dairy ‘hub’ approach
has been widely adopted
Research-based livestock successes
MARKETS

49. Conclusions
• The big increases in demand for, consumption and production of
livestock commodities are all happening in developing countries
• In developing countries, livestock commodities come mainly from
smallholders, a trend expected to continue for decades
• Addressing livestock yield gaps holistically −
and attending to the realities of resource-
scarce production − has potential to:
– Support the world’s smallholders in achieving
global food and nutritional security
– Reduce world poverty and increase equity
– Cut the environmental footprint of animal-source foods

50. Key messages
1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source food,
in developing countries will continue to rise
2 No standardized method exists for assessing livestock
yield gaps, but however defined, the gaps are significant
3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestock yield gaps
in developing countries ignored smallholder realities
4 Most milk, meat and eggs in developing countries come from
smallholders and are produced and consumed in the same
country
5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems
present big opportunities to address both technical and
institutional issues, benefiting both people and planet

51. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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