Midterm Review Meeting of the ICAR-ILRI
Collaborative Projects for the year 2021
(Animal Disease Economics project)
Assessment of economic impact of priority animal
disease (PPR, HS and Brucellosis) and the cost
effectiveness of their control strategies in India
Presented during a collaborators meeting held 8-10 January 2020, Bareilly, India
Project title
Dr. Gurrappa Naidu Govindaraj, ICAR-NIVEDI, Karnataka, India
Dr. Dwaipayan Bardhan, ICAR-IVRI, Bareilly, India
Sirak Bahta, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya
Karl Rich, ILRI, Dakar, Senegal

Partner institutes
Project
coordinator
Dr. Habibar Rahman,
Regional Representative for South Asia, ILRI, New Delhi
Institutions ILRI ICAR-IVRI ICAR-NIVEDI
Principal
Investigator
--
Dr. D. Bardhan
Pr. Scientist
Division of LES & IT
ICAR-IVRI, Izatnagar
Dr. G. Govindaraj
Sr. Scientist
ICAR-NIVEDI, Bengaluru
Co-Principal
Investigators
Dr. Sirak Bahta
Senior Agricultural Economist
Policies, Institutions and
Livelihoods
ILRI, Nairobi
Dr. D. Muthuchelvan
Pr. Scientist
Division of Virology
ICAR-IVRI, Mukteswar
Campus
Dr. V. Balamurugan
Pr. Scientist
ICAR-NIVEDI, Bengaluru
Dr. Nicoline de Haan
Senior Researcher
Policies, Institutions and
Livelihoods
ILR
Dr. Bablu Kumar
Sr. Scientist
Division of Biological
Products
ICAR-IVRI, Izatnagar
Dr. R. Shome
Pr. Scientist
ICAR-NIVEDI, Bengaluru
Dr. K.N. Viswas
Pr. Scientist
Division of Bacteriology and
Mycology
ICAR-IVRI, Izatnagar
Dr. M. Nagalingam
Scientist
ICAR-NIVEDI, Bengaluru
Dr. P. Krishnamoorthy
Sr. Scientist
ICAR-NIVEDI, Bengaluru

Development of integrated epidemiological-economic
framework through participatory system dynamics
modeling that can be used to quantify economic and non-
economics effects of animal disease and its control
strategies under different scenarios;
Overall Project mandate

Major Activities completed as per action plan
Primary household survey to assess the impact of PPR was
completed in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, as per
approved sampling protocol.
Completed data feeding, smoothing, data checking and cleaning.
Generated socio-economic parameter tables and assessed per animal
and per farm loss due to PPR in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and
Uttar Pradesh states.
Building system dynamic models on Sheep and goats PPR value
chain actors (farmers, traders and retailers) using Stella Architect for
Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh states is in progress.

Sampling design and sampling frame
 As per the work plan, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and
Karnataka were selected as a study states by the ICAR-IVRI and ICAR-NIVEDI.
 A multi-stage random sampling technique will be used to select the farm households
 The states were divided into 2 quartiles (high and low) based upon the epidemiological
variables (Z values) as well as into 2 quartiles (high and low) based upon population
density (km2).
 Two districts were selected randomly from high and low risk quartile (based upon the
population density (km2)/outbreak) and from each district three/four blocks were selected
and 5-6 villages were randomly selected from each block.
States Estimated sample size
Karnataka 267
Andhra Pradesh 234
West Bengal 364
Uttar Pradesh 234
Rajasthan 356
The estimated sample size for the study states

Outcome/progress of the project

General characteristics of sample farmers in
survey districts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka
states
Sl. No. Particulars Unit
Study states and surveyed districts
Andhra Pradesh Karnataka
Ananthapur Prakasham Bellary Mandya
1 Number of farms/flocks surveyed No. 158 109 160 130
2 Age (median) Years 42 49 43 48
3 Education
Illiterate No. 113 (71.5) 79(72.5) 118(73.7) 93(71.5)
Primary (1 to 7th) No. 30 (19) 21(19.3) 29(18.1) 21(16.2)
High school/secondary (8th to 10th) No. 13 (8.2) 9(8.2) 11(6.9) 16(12.3)
Graduation and above No. 2 (1.3) 0(0) 2(1.3) 0(0)
4 Family size No. 4 6 5 5
5 Land holdings
Land less No. 69 (43.7) 47(43.1) 50(31.3) 8(6.1)
Small (1 to <5 acres) No. 74 (46.8) 56(51.4) 80(50) 115(88.5)
Medium (5 to 10 acres) No. 11 (7.0) 6(5.5) 17(10.6) 7(5.4)
Large (>10 acres) No. 4(2.5) 0(0) 13(8.1) 0(0)
6
Total No. of sheep and goats in sample
households
No. 19035 13873 22268 4892
7 Average No. of sheep and goat per farm No. 120 127 139 38
Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicates percentage to total

Source of
income
Income level (INR)
Study states and surveyed districts
Andhra Pradesh Karnataka
Ananthapur Prakasham Bellary Mandya
Farm
income/
annum
<50,000 25 (15.8) 8(7.33) 18(11.3) 11(8.4)
50,000 - 1,00,000 51 (32.3) 31(28.44) 45(28.1) 66(50.8)
1,00,000 - 2,00,000 55 (34.8) 55(50.45) 49(30.7) 52(40)
>2,00,000 27(17.1) 15(13.76) 48(30) 1(0.8)
Annual income of sample farmers in survey districts of
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka states
Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicates percentage to total

Distribution of mortality and morbidity levels in sheep and goats
due to PPR among the sample farmers in survey districts of Andhra
Pradesh and Karnataka states
Species Particulars
Study states and surveyed districts
Andhra Pradesh Karnataka
Ananthapur Prakasham Bellary Mandya
Sheep
Number of animals at risk 18150 13538 21980 1860
Incidence (%) 972(5.4) 64(0.5) 878(4.0) 38(2.1)
CFR (%) 810(83.3) 54(84.4) 582(66.3) 14(36.8)
Recovery (%) 149(15.3) 10(15.6) 245(27.9) 24(63.2)
Distress sale (%) 13(1.3) 0(0) 42(4.8) 0(0)
Goat
Number of animals at risk 885 335 288 3032
Incidence (%) 10(1.1) 0(0) 7(2.4) 32(1.1)
CFR (%) 10(100) 0(0) 4(57.1) 17(53.1)
Recovery (%) 0(0) 0(0) 3(42.9) 15(46.9)
Distress sale (%) 0(0) 0(0) 0(0) 0(0)
Pooled
(sheep + goat)
Number of animals at risk 19035 13873 22268 4892
Incidence (%) 982(5.2) 64(0.5) 885(4.0) 70(1.4)
CFR (%) 820(83.5) 54(84.4) 586(66.2) 31(44.3)
Recovery (%) 149(15.2) 10(15.6) 248(28) 39(55.7)
Distress sale (%) 13(1.3) 0(0) 42(4.7) 0(0)
Note: CFR= Case fatality rate.
Figures in the parenthesis (related to incidence) indicates percentage to the number of animals at risk.
Figures in the parenthesis (related to CFR, Recovery and Distress sale) indicates percentage to the incidence.

Estimated per farm and per animal loss in sheep and
goats due to PPR among the sample farmers in survey
districts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka states
Loss components
Study states and surveyed districts
Andhra Pradesh Karnataka
Ananthapur Prakasham Bellary Mandya
Mortality loss 39750 (10000-209000) 18000 (6000-70000) 45000 (10500-230500) 10500 (7500-27000)
Body weight loss 4600 (1100-25800) 2750 (2200-4950) 7770 (960-70320) 2700 (900-6825)
Distress sale loss 15750 (12400-24400) - 26500 (19700 – 44500) -
Treatment cost 400 (100-6600) 725 (250-2450) 1425 (500-2800) 570 (150-1750)
Opportunity cost of labour 1612.5 (375-4500) 862.5 (375-2400) 1062.5 (218.8-8000) 912.5 (375-4500)
Per farm
Note: Figures represents median value in rupee (INR).
Figures in parentheses indicates range values (minimum and maximum)
Loss components
Study states and surveyed districts
Andhra Pradesh Karnataka
Ananthapur Prakasham Bellary Mandya
Mortality loss 4000 (2600-8000) 3750 (3000-8500) 4083.3 (3000-14000) 4000 (3400-7500)
Body weight loss 402.1 (250-850) 990 (825-1100) 638.1 (300-1200) 815.6 (675-900)
Distress sale loss 5100 (3100-12200) - 4020 (3000 -7666.6) -
Treatment cost 50 (25-440) 172.5 (62.5-375) 182.5 (14.7-280) 162.5 (50-250)
Opportunity cost of labour 150 (28.4-760) 218.7 (88.2-520) 100 (31.2-233.3) 250 (100-562)
Per animal

Particulars
Andhra Pradesh Karnataka
Ananthapur Prakasham pooled Bellary Mandya Pooled
Total farms surveyed 158 109 267 160 130 290
Total farms vaccinated
113
(71.5)
92
(84.4)
205
(76.8)
131
(81.9)
81
(62.3)
212
(73.1)
Total farms not vaccinated
45
(28.5)
17
(15.6)
62
(23.2)
29
(18.1)
49
(37.7)
78
(26.9)
Total sheep and goat in the
farms
19035 13873 32908 22268 4892 27160
Total animals (sheep and
goats) vaccinated
13079
(68.7)
12204
(88)
25283
(76.8)
16725
(75.1)
3317
(67.8)
20042
(73.8)
Total animals (sheep and
goats) not vaccinated
5956
(31.3)
1669
(12)
7625
(23.2)
5543
(24.9)
1575
(32.2)
7118
(26.2)
PPR vaccination levels among the sample farmers in the
surveyed districts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh states
Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicates percentage to total

ICAR-IVRI

Sl. No. Particulars Unit
Surveyed districts
Bareilly Sitapur
1 Number of farms/flocks surveyed No. 164 173
2 Age (median) Years 44 47
3 Education
Illiterate No. 113 (68.90) 128 (73.99)
Primary (1 to 7th) No. 39 (23.78) 38 (21.97)
High school/secondary (8th to 10th) No. 12 (7.32) 3 (1.73)
Graduation and above No. 0 (0) 4 (2.31)
4 Family size No. 7 6
6
Total No. of sheep and goats in sample
households
No. 1042 768
7
Average No. of sheep and goat per
farm
No. 6 4
General characteristics of sample farmers in
survey districts of Uttar Pradesh state

Distribution of mortality and morbidity levels in sheep and goats
due to PPR among the sample farmers in survey districts of Uttar
Pradesh state
Species Particulars
Surveyed districts
Bareilly Sitapur
Sheep
Number of animals at risk 305 -
Incidence (%) - -
CFR (%) - -
Recovery (%) - -
Distress sale (%) - -
Goat
Number of animals at risk 737 770
Incidence (%) 3 (0.41) 443 (41.44)
CFR (%) 13(100) 340(76.75)
Recovery (%) - -
Distress sale (%) - 103(23.25)
Pooled
(sheep + goat)
Number of animals at risk 1042 770
Incidence (%) 3 (0.29) 443 (41.44)
CFR (%) 13(100) 340(76.75)
Recovery (%) - -
Distress sale (%) - 103(23.25)
Note: CFR= Case fatality rate.
Figures in the parenthesis (related to incidence) indicates percentage to the number of animals at risk.
Figures in the parenthesis (related to CFR, Recovery and Distress sale) indicates percentage to the incidence.

Estimated per farm and per animal mortality loss in
sheep and goats due to PPR among the sample farmers
in survey districts of Uttar Pradesh state
Note: Figures represents average value in rupee (INR).
Surveyed
districts
Species and gender Age group
Goats <6 months 6-12 months >1 year
Bareilly
Male
Per farm 0 6100 9450
Per animal 0 3050 6350
Female
Per farm 900 3288 7366.7
Per animal 900 3288 5466.7
Pooled
Per farm 900 5162.7 13666.7
Per animal 900 3129.3 5855.6
Sitapur
Male
Per farm 2223.3 7848.2 17196.5
Per animal 862.6 3827.6 7848.9
Female
Per farm 2227.5 9361.2 15756.1
Per animal 873.4 4221.7 6913.2
Pooled
Per farm 3449.9 15800.5 29186.6
Per animal 873.2 4070.1 7276.3

Estimated per farm and per animal loss in sheep and
goats due to PPR among the sample farmers in survey
districts of Uttar Pradesh
Loss components
Study states and surveyed districts
UP
Bareilly Sitapur
Mortality loss 6576.45 16145.65
Body weight loss - -
Distress sale loss - 10294.83
Treatment cost 3239 660.00
Opportunity cost of labour 48.75 56.52
Per farm
Per animal
Loss components
Study states and surveyed districts
UP
Bareilly Sitapur
Mortality loss 3294.96 4073.19
Body weight loss - -
Distress sale loss - 5325.09
Treatment cost 593 94.27
Opportunity cost of labour 15.17 9.80

Particulars
UP
Bareilly Sitapur pooled
Total farms surveyed 164 173 337
Total farms vaccinated 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total farms not vaccinated 164 173 337
Total sheep and goat in the farms 1042 768 1810
Total animals (sheep and goats) vaccinated 00.00 00.00 00.00
Total animals (sheep and goats) not
vaccinated
1042
768 1810
PPR vaccination levels among the sample farmers in the
surveyed districts of Uttar Pradesh
Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicates percentage to total

Quantitative mapping of Goat/sheep value chain in
Bareilly & Sitapur districts (no. of value chain actors)

Quantitative mapping of Goat/sheep value chain in
Bareilly & Sitapur districts (volume of flow)

Action Taken Report (ATR)
 Due to COVID-19, household survey and participatory model
building sessions was delayed and could not be carried out (as per
approved sampling protocol) since March, 2020 to November,
2020 and during April-June, 2021.
 Completed primary household survey in three states (Andhra
Pradesh, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh)
Comments:
ATR:

 Due to COVID-19, field-level survey (West Bengal and Rajasthan states)
and Focus group discussion (FGD’s) could not be carried out in study area
for data generation for application in SD modeling. Hence, 40-50% of
planned project work is affected.
Conducting Focus Group Discussion, group model building
and transcribing the results
Parametrizing the models in consultation with ILRI scientists
Scenario analysis
Plan will be developed to study the impact of Brucellosis/HS
Action Plan for Calendar Year 2021
Constraints

Discussion on current situation and
knowledge gaps in PPR impact
research in India
Workshop on survey finalization meeting and training in participatory methods

Group model building and participatory facilitation with application on PPR

Science exchange visit to ILRI, Nairobi
Participated and discussed on system dynamics modelling (22nd to 26th Oct-2019)

Discussion with local veterinarians and field visit
Survey

Survey