Measuring development process resilience:
A test from northern Kenya
Lance W. Robinson, Jonathan Davies,
Polly J. Ericksen and Simon Mugatha
IFPRI 2020 Policy Consultation and Conference, Side Event on Measuring and
Evaluating Resilience in Drylands of East Africa, Addis Ababa, 15-17 May 2014

Social-Ecological Resilience
“The capacity of a system to absorb
disturbance and reorganize while undergoing
change so as to still retain essentially the same
function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.”
(Walker et al., 2004, p. 5).
Not necessarily desirable.
(e.g., poverty traps)

Development Resilience
“The ability of a household to keep with a
certain level of well-being (i.e. being food
secure) by withstanding shocks and stresses”
(FAO, 2010).
“The capacity to cope with adverse
stressors/shocks without adverse development
consequences .” (Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group)

Development Resilience
In the face of recurring drought:
• The DRR community focuses on maintaining
well-being in the short-term, and
• The development community focuses on
interested in improving well-being in the longer
term.

Measurement of
Development Resilience

Some Key Principles for Resilience
Measurement
 Distinguish outcomes of resilience from
determinants of resilience
 Development resilience is not simply
o The inverse of vulnerability
o Coping with shocks
 More and better data vs. economy and realism --
need for a balance

Resilience Measurement:
Three Main Types of Data
We need measures of:
• The state of human development
(indicators of well-being, and their changes
over time),
• Shocks (measures of the extent and
severity of shocks such as droughts), and
• Broader social and ecological conditions
(indicators of determinants of resilience).

Response of Well-Being To Drought
Drought A
B
C
D

0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Well-Being
Poverty Line
Drought
Well-BeingIndex
What Development Resilience IS NOT

Incidence-% Marsabit, Kenya
Global Acute Malnutrition Among Children
Moderate Drought
Severe Drought
Extreme Drought
Based on SMART Nutrition Survey Data

Suggested Conceptualization
(mWB after shock x severity of shock) ƒ RD1, RD2, RD3….
mWB before shock
WB = Well-being
RD = Resilience determinant

Some final thoughts
• A local-level HDI would have great value
• Resilience thinking (system resilience)
has much to offer – let’s not lose sight of
its insights

This work contributes to the CGIAR Research Program on
Dryland Systems.
It is supported by the Technical Consortium (TC) for
Ending Drought Emergencies and Building Resilience
to Drought1 in the Horn of Africa.
Acknowledgements

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