IFPRI 2020 Policy Consultation and Conference, Side Event on
Measuring and Evaluating Resilience in Drylands of East Afric...
2
• Review of some of the current efforts towards developing
metrics and frameworks to measure the the resilience of
popul...
3
Governments in the Horn of Africa need to be able to
attribute the impact of investments in the Country
Programme Papers...
4
Resilience is defined as a capacity that ensures stressors
and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development
conse...
5Recommendations derived from Analyses of Current Approaches to Resilience
• Distinguish determinants of resilience from r...
6
• Working with governments in the Horn of Africa to provide
technical assistance to support the development of investmen...
7
• An application in the context of the NDMA Ending Drought
Emergencies Medium Term Plan
• Assisting with the development...
8Matching outcomes and indicators
9
10M&E: Impact Pathways
11Approach to M&E
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A review of existing analytical frameworks, metrics and outcomes designed to measure enhanced resilience in the Horn of Africa

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Presented by Katie Downie, Sabrina Chesterman and Lance Robinson at the IFPRI 2020 Policy Consultation and Conference, Side Event on Measuring and Evaluating Resilience in Drylands of East Africa, Addis Ababa, 15-17 May 2014


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  • What we want to be resilient is the process of development ie., ongoing process of improving human capabilities Comparison of slope of trajectory before and after a shockImproving well-being over time
  • Alinvovi et al. 2013Although both the influence of thinking around social-ecological resilience, and the importance of factors at various scales, including more than the household level, the six dimensions of resilience chosen for the index seem not to reflect this recognition – e.g., no obvious place in the framework for variables related to ecosystems and natural resources and the enabling institutional environment Both determinants and outcomes of resilience are analysed towards a single indexPerhaps this approach could be enriched by creating, ex-ante, an index of the constituents or determinants of resilienceConstas and Barrett 2013Approach to analysis (not indicator-based) which places a great deal of emphasis on thresholds and poverty traps, as embodied in their heuristic model which plots current well-being against expected future well-beingapproach places too much emphasis on the causal significance of current level of well-being and underemphasizes the role of other causal factorsfuture well-being is determined not only by current well-being but also by an array of other factors such as governancesome, perhaps all, dimensions of current well-being can be assumed to be key determinants of development resilience, but they are not the only determinants of resilience or of future well-beingPolicy and Programming Implications of such an approachWith an approach that is based on tipping points in current vs. expected well-being, the presumed way to improve a household’s well-being is to provide support in the form of a well-being “push” until they have moved beyond the poverty trap threshold.If other determinants of development resilience such as governance and healthy ecosystems are emphasized, the policy implication becomes one of identifying which factor or combination of factors create the threshold in the first pla
  • Resilience pathways facilitate the development of long-term strategies and interventions. Monitoring and evaluation efforts focus on the causal relationship between investment and impact; whether the indicators that are assumed to reflect progress along a trajectory, both qualitatively and quantitatively, manifest change towards enhanced resilience and growth. This is not a linear process; instead there are multiple feedbacks which occur, and this methodology incorporates the dynamic change in behavior, relationships, networks, activities, people and organizations along the timescale of the resilience pathway
  • It is critical that both attribution and contribution of individual projects, actions and processes are understood in their role toward achieving outcomes along designated impact pathways. The conceiving of these pathways needs to be supported by clear processes, actions and projects that can show verified contributions toward the pathway and transparent attribution in enhancing resilience. An ex post impact assessment, once an individual project is completed, allows an understanding and ‘plausible’ bridge linking a project’s direct benefits with wider level impacts. This requires a ‘persuasive case’, requiring triangulation with multiple data sources, quantitative analysis, qualitative data and verbal testimony to illustrate attribution toward resilience.
  • A review of existing analytical frameworks, metrics and outcomes designed to measure enhanced resilience in the Horn of Africa

    1. 1. IFPRI 2020 Policy Consultation and Conference, Side Event on Measuring and Evaluating Resilience in Drylands of East Africa, Addis Ababa, 15-17 May 2014 A review of existing analytical frameworks, metrics and outcomes designed to measure enhanced resilience in the Horn of Africa Katie Downie, Sabrina Chesterman and Lance Robinson
    2. 2. 2 • Review of some of the current efforts towards developing metrics and frameworks to measure the the resilience of populations • Most use food security as an outcome or as a proxy for resilience • This paper will look at why this is not optimal and discuss briefly other efforts ongoing, including the work the Technical Consortium is engaging in with the NDMA on developing M&E frameworks and developing decision analysis models for better targeting of investments Paper outline
    3. 3. 3 Governments in the Horn of Africa need to be able to attribute the impact of investments in the Country Programme Papers towards enhanced resilience: • Lack of rationale to determine prioritization of investments • Lack of appropriate baseline data to populate indicators to measure significant change / transformation • Lack of indicators aligned with country-specific investments to measure impact on populations • Lack of relevant time series panel datasets to review responses to shocks Background – In what context is the Technical Consortium working
    4. 4. 4 Resilience is defined as a capacity that ensures stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development consequences and enables support to trajectories enhancing growth and prosperity. Defining resilience
    5. 5. 5Recommendations derived from Analyses of Current Approaches to Resilience • Distinguish determinants of resilience from resilience outcomes • Keep the approach simple - the array of categories may be numerous, but the number of indicators in each category should remain few (except where such data is already been consistently collected). • All approaches have merit, what needs to be evaluated is the applicability of the different facets of different approaches in an operational context, ie. Kenya EDE MTP • Key aspect of the analysis will be using indicators of resilience outcomes for impact assessment and for testing of hypotheses around determinants of resilience – ie. Testing the application of hypotheses from work of RM-TWG • Measurement must take place at multiple levels ie., Household unit and systems dynamics • Ensuring that resilience measurement is pro-poor – system resilience is not in itself a pro-poor context
    6. 6. 6 • Working with governments in the Horn of Africa to provide technical assistance to support the development of investment plans and projects which aim to enhance resilience or “End Drought Emergencies” (Kenya Country Programme Paper) • Intensive engagement with the National Drought Management Authority in Kenya (focal point for implementation of Country Programme Papers) • Chair of the technical sub-group in the Knowledge Management Cluster - assisting with decision support analysis for better targeting of investments, research on decision analysis with respect to appropriate investments and building a robust M&E system, including indicators, data needs and impact outcomes. What is the Technical Consortium doing?
    7. 7. 7 • An application in the context of the NDMA Ending Drought Emergencies Medium Term Plan • Assisting with the development of resilient pathways, focusing on the causal relationship between investment and impact; which indicators to use, how to continuously validate that relationship and how to measure the impact of the investment on the anticipated outcome • At present, modeling impact in terms of standard sustainable development indicators ie. HDI, MDG>SDG (health, education, nutrition, living standards etc) Our Approach to Resilience
    8. 8. 8Matching outcomes and indicators
    9. 9. 9
    10. 10. 10M&E: Impact Pathways
    11. 11. 11Approach to M&E

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