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The context surrounding the emergence of infectious diseases and the need to foster multilateral collaboration to implement prevention strategies
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Presentation by Hung Nguyen-Viet at a Preventing Zoonotic Disease Emergence (PREZODE) side event at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Forum on Science and Innovation, 13 October 2022.
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The context surrounding the emergence of infectious diseases and the need to foster multilateral collaboration to implement prevention strategies
- The context surrounding the emergence of infectious diseases and the need to foster multilateral collaboration to implement prevention strategies Hung Nguyen-Viet International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) 13 October 2022
- 2 Context Zoonoses, pandemics and One Health
- 3 Graphics: Annabel Slater, ILRI; adapted fromUnited Nations Environment Programme and International Livestock Research Institute (2020). Preventing the Next Pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission. Nairobi, Kenya. EIDS, zoonoses and pandemics - growing public health threats
- 4 The importance of zoonoses
- Demand for animal source food Changes in food supply chains Unsustainable agricultural intensification Increased use of wildlife Degradation of natural environment Globalisation travel, trade transportation Change Climate Demography Culture Ref: United Nations Environment Programme and International Livestock Research Institute. 2020. Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission. Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP. (Delia Grace first author and team leader) Futurepandemicsare inevitable
- 6 % growth in demand for livestock products to 2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.Asia Pacific China South Asia SSA High income 6 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.Asia Pacific China South Asia SSA High income 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 E.Asia Pacific China South Asia SSA High income 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.Asia Pacific China South Asia SSA High income Poultry Milk Beef Pork Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030. Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI.
- 7 Livestock density projection
- Employment and direct output value of wild animal industry in China, 2016. (US$ 73.4 billion)
- 9 Bush meat, poaching, wildlife-human interactions in Africa
- 10 OHHLEP One Health definition released November 2021 and endorsed by Quadripartite One Health is an integrated, unifying approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals and ecosystems. One Health: new definition by One Health High Level Expert Panel (OHHLEP), 2021
- Five benefits of One Health 1. Sharing resources: efficiency and effectiveness savings 2. Controlling diseases in the animal reservoir rather than human victim 3. Early detection and management of emerging threats 4. De-risking the drivers of disease emergence 5. Generating insights and adding value
- Early signal detection • Integrated surveillance: HealthMap, SMS reporting • Zoonoses Disease Units and Working Groups, One Health platforms • Joint response teams
- Controlling endemic diseases before they get to people • Major zoonoses historically controlled in the animal reservoir (brucellosis, TB, rabies, livestock parasites) • Salmonella: Denmark reduced up to 95% in eggs, poultry and pork, by farm and VC intervention saving society US$ 25.5 million p.a. (Wegnener et al.) • Rabies: over a period of 6-15 years, dog vaccination and PE more cost effective than PE alone • Schistosomiasis: more effective when both cattle and people treated (Grey et al.). Integrated programs generate $6 per $1 invested • Brucellosis: cost effective when benefits to all sectors considered (Roth et al.) 13
- Costs of zoonotic disease outbreaks (US$ billion) Period Costs (conservative estimates) Annual average 6 outbreaks other than SARS -Nipah virus (Malaysia), -West Nile fever (USA), -HPAI (Asia, Europe), -BSE (US), -Rift Valley Fever (East Africa) - BSE (UK) costs in 1997-09 only 1998-2009 6 b$ each SARS 2002-2004 40 b$ Total in 12 year period (1998- 2009) 80.2 7 b$ Source World Bank 2012 Cost of pandemics Cost of COVID 10-20 trillion $ (10 years of endemic zoonoses)
- 15 Fostering multilateral collaboration to implement disease prevention strategies
- 16 • The RREZODE initiative was launched in 2021 at the One Planet Summit by the President of France Emmanuel Macron. • At this launch, it also received the support of the European Commission through the voice of its President, Ursula von der Leyen, and of the FAO through its Director General Qu Dongyu. PREZODE: a common framework to foster collaboration and impact
- 17 The need for a paradigm shift: PREVENTION and BOTTOM-UP approaches Context IPBES, 2020
- 18 One Health science
- Strengthen the national One Health platforms
- 20 One Health field sites and labs Vietnam One Health research partnership opens fourth provincial field site, Thai Nguyen province
- Field labs in Oloitokitok, Kajiado, Kenya
- Student activities Field works with communities Capacity building, next generation of One Health practice
- 23 Coordination: One Health platforms in Africa
- One Health, institutional commitment, investments Decision-makers Public health (MD, army health) Scientists Vets Savannakhet, Lao PDR on foodborne disease research 10. 2017
- 25 COVID-19 pandemic Origins, science, politics!
- THANK YOU
Editor's Notes
- Context of report was covid.One of the few upsides of COVID is that epidemiology needs no introduction and people in the subway are talking about Herd immunity and R nought. But Covid just latest in a long line and very far from the worst.
- At least 6: Pandemics since the Great Influenza pandemic of 1918 -- three caused by influenza viruses, HIV/AIDS, SARS, and COVID-19, and the frequency is increasing >30%: emerging infectious diseases attributed to land use change, agricultural expansion and urbanization >70%: of emerging diseases (e.g. Ebola, Zika, Nipah encephalitis) caused by microbes found in animals (i.e. are classed as zoonotic pathogens) which ‘spill over’ due to contact among wildlife, livestock, and people Almost 100%: of pandemics (e.g. influenza, SARS, COVID-19) have been caused by zoonoses Up to 1.7 million: current estimate of ‘undiscovered’ viruses in mammal and water birds, the hosts most commonly identified as origins of novel zoonoses Less than 2,000: currently catalogued viral diversity from these hosts (less than 0.1% of the potential zoonotic viral risk has been discovered) 631,000 to 827,000: estimated number of viruses that could have the ability to infect humans >400: microbes (viruses, bacteria, protozoa, fungi and other microorganisms) have emerged in people during the last five decades,
- Many studies, on the what it did, how it happened, but less on the whys. The first key finding was that Deep drivers were 3 things it is hard to do anything about
- FAO. 2011. Mapping supply and demand for animal-source foods to 2030, by T.P. Robinson & F. Pozzi. Animal Production and Health Working Paper. No. 2. Rome. IMPACT results generally suggested smaller changes in demand compared to FAO. Among other drivers of the results, the observed differences may be related to the underlying assumptions on how future demand will respond to prices and incomes. FAO projections could for example be assuming big shifts to Chicken Meat consumption (e.g., from pork) as incomes grow in Asia. IMPACT makes the same assumption in terms of direction, but with the expected shifts a bit more dampened. High income countries include much of Europe. In fact, if one looks at individual European nations in many cases there is a DECLINE in demand (Switzerland for beef (-22%) and pork (-14%) for example) Figures for meat consumption: https://data.oecd.org/agroutput/meat-consumption.htm
- One Health is an integrated, unifying approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals and ecosystems. It recognizes the health of humans, domestic and wild animals, plants, and the wider environment (including ecosystems) are closely linked and inter-dependent. The approach mobilizes multiple sectors, disciplines and communities at varying levels of society to work together to foster well-being and tackle threats to health and ecosystems, while addressing the collective need for clean water, energy and air, safe and nutritious food, taking action on climate changes and contributing to sustainable development.
- Period Disease (Country) Start Estimate 1986-2009 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (UK) 1986 15,500,000,000 6.1 billion in 1997-2009 1994 Plague (India) 1994 2,000,000,000 Sept. 1998-April 1999 Nipah virus (Malaysia) 1998 671,000,000 January 1999-Dec. 2008 West Nile fever (USA) 1999 400,000,000 Nov. 2002-July 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (CD, China, ROW)2002 41,500,000,000 January 2004-January 2009Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Asia) 2004 20,000,000,000 2003-2007 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (USA) 2004 11,000,000,000 Oct. 2005-Jan. 2009 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Europe) 2005 500,000,000 Nov. 2005-January 2009 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Africa) 2005 Nov. 2006-May 2007 Rift Valley Fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) 2006 30,000,000 per year without SARS 48,329,000,000 2,301,380,952 SARS 41,500,000,000 1,976,190,476 Total in 1986-2006 89,829,000,000 4,277,571,429 Total in 1998-2009 only 80,201,000,000 6,683,416,667 without SARS 38,701,000,000 3,225,083,333 SARS 41,500,000,000 3,458,333,333 Annual avg (12 yrs) for 7 outbreaks is $3.2 b If SARS is once in 12-yrs event, the annual cost is $3.5 b Moreover, there are other zoonotic diseases that are not included in this calculation. For instance HIV/AIDs which imposes heavy human, social and economic costs. At present, programs to control the disease are spending on the order of $10 billion per year – if we had included this, the total costs would be even more staggering. Costs of a flu pandemic would range from about 5x the impact of these 8 outbreaks in a mild flu scenario (455 billion) to about 40 x in a severe flu scenario ($3.1 trillion). Most of these costs would be indirect.
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