Presentation by Wudu T. Jemberu, Theodore J.D. Knight-Jones, Alemseged Gebru, Sefinew A. Mekonnen, Andnet Yirga, Demeke Sibhatu and Jonathan Rushton at the 16th International Symposium of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Halifax, Canada, 7–12 August 2022.

1. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
16th International Symposium of Veterinary
Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE 16)
Connecting Animals, People, and their shared
environments
Economic impact of peste des petits ruminants
outbreak and vaccination cost in northwest Ethiopia
Wudu T. Jemberu1,2, Theodore J.D. Knight-Jones1, Alemseged Gebru2, Sefinew A. Mekonnen2, Andnet Yirga3,
Demeke Sibhatu4, Jonathan Rushton5
1International Livestock Research Institute
2University of Gondar
3Bahir Dar University
4National Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Center, Ethiopia
5University of Liverpool
22nd International Symposium of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics
Halifax, Canada, 7–12 August 2022

2. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Introduction
• Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute or
sub-acute, highly contagious transboundary viral
disease of sheep and goats
• Endemic and a big constraint upon sheep and goat
production in many countries Africa and Asia.
• Significant economic, food security and
livelihood impacts in affected communities and
hence a target for global eradication by 2030
WoAH PPR official status Map (WoAH, 2020)

3. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Introduction
• PPR is a big burden in Ethiopia’s huge small ruminant
population (95 million heads)
• Prioritized as number one livestock disease for its
socioeconomic impact
• A national eradication program embarked on recently
• Some districts conduct regular mass vaccination
• The economic impact of the disease and effectiveness of
vaccination practices have not been evaluated
Objective
• Estimate the economic impact of PPR outbreak and the
costs of vaccination
Seroprevalence distribution of PPR in
Ethiopia (Waret-Szkuta et al., 2008)

4. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Material and methods
Study area
• Metema district in Amhara region, northwest Ethiopia
• Metema
• Has large small ruminant population (about 153 000
sheep and goat)
• Predominantly a crop livestock mixed production
system
• Conducts PPR vaccination albeit irregularly
• PPR outbreak occurred at the end of 2017 that
affected 6 out of 24 kebeles (subdistricts)

5. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Materials and methods
Study approach and sampling
• Based on follow up of a PPR outbreak and field vaccination
programs
• PPR outbreak in six affected kebeles was monitored for
economic impact estimation
• Vaccination programs in six kebeles were monitored for
vaccination cost assessment

6. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Data collection
Nasal, buccal and ocular swab samples for
laboratory outbreak confirmation
Outbreak data from affected flocks by
observation and interviewing 233 farmers
• Mortality
• Morbidity
• Abortion
• Weight loss
• Treatment costs
Price data
- Live animal price from surrounding
primary markets
Material and methods

7. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Vaccination cost data
• Data from observation of vaccination (11000
small ruminants in 6 kebeles)
- Field delivery costs
- Time spent by farmers to get their animal
vaccinated
- Vaccine wastage
Data from records in the districts
- price of vaccine and reconstitution solution
- Transport cost
- Coordination cost
Material and methods ….

8. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Flock level economic impact assessment models
• Mortality loss (ML) =ΣNADj*Pj
• Weight loss (WL)= ΣRAj*BWLj*PL
• Abortion loss (AL) = Nabf *Pn
• TC = DMC + (NhoursL* Prl)
Overall economic losses (OEL) = ML + WL + AL+ TC
Materials and methods
where: NAD = no. of animal died; p= price j = index for five
sex age categories (lamb/kid, young, adult male, adult female
pregnant and adult female non pregnant)
where Nabf= no. of aborted fetus ; Pn = price of newborn
where DMC = drug and medication cost ; NhoursL= no. of
hours lost by farmer, Prl = price of replacement labor
where RA= no. of recovered animals; BWL= bodyweight
loss; PL= price of liveweight

9. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Vaccination cost model
Vaccination cost (VC) = Vc + Vtc + Fdc + Cc + Ftc
Where:
Vc (Vaccin cost) = Vaccine price + saline price
Vtc (Vaccine transport cost = Truck rental cost + Fuel cost + Transporting personnel cost
Fdc (field delivery cost)= personnel cost (per diem) + field transport cost + material cost
Cc (Coordination cost)= personnel cost (per diem) + transport cost
Ftc (Farmers time cost) = Farmers time spent for flock vaccination
VC per correctly vaccinated dose = cost of total dose used/percent vaccine wastage
Materials and methods

10. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Results
• The outbreak was confirmed by detecting PPR Ag in 8 of 12 animal sampled
from different sites of the outbreak
Study flocks, and morbidity and mortality
Species No. of flocks
included the
study
Average
flock size
Flock level
morbidity
Animal level
morbidity
(% [95%CI ])
Animal level
mortality
(% [95%CI])
Sheep 81 20 67 (83%)
50.7 (48.3-53.2) 21.6 (19.7-23.7)
Goat 130 20 113(87%) 51.3 (49.4-53.2) 25.1 (23.5-26.8)

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Results
The components of mean economic losses
per affected flock due to PPR
Species Mean flock
level loss in all
study flocks in
ETB (USD)
Mean animal
level loss in all
study flocks in
ETB (USD)
Mean flock level
loss in only in
affected flocks
in ETB (USD)
Sheep 4354 (182.9) 319 (13.4) 7835 (329.1)
Goat 4765 (199.3) 306 (12.9) 7136 (299.7)
Flock and animal level economic
loss estimates

12. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Cost of vaccination
• The cost per dose of correctly
vaccinated animals was estimated at
ETB 3.00 (USD 0.13).
• Substantial vaccine wastage of 22%
• The bigger contributor of vaccination
cost is field delivery cost
Results
Vaccine cost
16%
Transport
cost
19%
Mobilization
and
coordination
cost
11%
Field delivery
cost
43%
Farmers’
time cost
11%
Proportion of components of vaccination costs

13. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Results
Evaluating economic feasibility of district level vaccination
Considering :
• Vaccine protection of greater than 90% (previous seroconversion study)
• Biannual vaccination frequency (previous herd dynamics study)
• Economic impact estimated per animal in affected kebele (e.g. USD 13/goat)
• The probability of a kebele to be affected by PPR outbreak when it occurs in a district 25%
• Cost of vaccination estimated per animal (USD 0.13/effectively administered dose)
• Vaccination is profitable if the outbreak occurs more than once every 13 years
∴ vaccination is most likely to be economically profitable in the district

14. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
• The outbreak caused high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant flocks, and
• Significant income losses to flock owners which on average reaches to 14% of
annual income for smallholders
• Low vaccination costs makes district level vaccination economically profitable
• The data generated on cost of outbreak and vaccination would help for economic
assessments in similar settings in the global eradication program
Conclusions

15. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Acknowledgments

16. ISVEE16 – Halifax, Canada
Thank you for your attention
Questions and comments?