Optimizing benefits from crop residues in smallholder mixed systems in Africa and South Asia: Modeling tools<br />http://w...
Modelling reality<br />Why (not) to use models?<br />Modelling in SLP<br />Nuances approach<br />Minimum data approaches<b...
Why (not) to use models for farming systems?<br /><ul><li>Tool
Understand/analyse complicated process
Explore the future/past
Discussion tool
Others?
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Optimizing benefits from crop residues in smallholder mixed systems in Africa and South Asia: Modeling tools

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Presentation by Diego Valbuena for the SLP Crop Residues Project Review and Planning Meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9-10 December 2010

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Optimizing benefits from crop residues in smallholder mixed systems in Africa and South Asia: Modeling tools

  1. 1. Optimizing benefits from crop residues in smallholder mixed systems in Africa and South Asia: Modeling tools<br />http://www.truthtree.com/images/em.jpg<br />Presentation by Diego Valbuena (ILRI) for the<br />SLP Crop Residues Project Review and Planning Meeting<br /> Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9-10 Dec 2010<br />
  2. 2. Modelling reality<br />Why (not) to use models?<br />Modelling in SLP<br />Nuances approach<br />Minimum data approaches<br />Scenarios<br />http://www.jknowles.co.uk/upload/JKnowles_VirtualFood_Sushi.jpg<br />
  3. 3. Why (not) to use models for farming systems?<br /><ul><li>Tool
  4. 4. Understand/analyse complicated process
  5. 5. Explore the future/past
  6. 6. Discussion tool
  7. 7. Others?
  8. 8. No forecast</li></ul>http://datingsymbol.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/predicting-the-future.jpg<br />
  9. 9. Modelling in SLP<br /><ul><li>Past experiences (www.vslp.org/models/)
  10. 10. LIFE Sim: evaluate the effects of different feeding strategies on animal performance.
  11. 11. IMPACT: protocol for collecting data to characterise farming systems
  12. 12. Potential use
  13. 13. Research question 2: impact on livelihoods & environment.
  14. 14. Research question 3: potential interventions and their effects. </li></li></ul><li>Nuances approach<br />The aim of AfricaNUANCES is to generate an integrated framework of data bases and computer models. This framework can be used to analyse current livelihoods, explore options for their development and reveal trade-offs between objectives farmers are facing in Sub-Saharan Africa. <br />FIELD <br /><ul><li> Output: crop yield and nutrient balances
  15. 15. Input: soil, climate, crops, fertiliser, manure, residues
  16. 16. Main issue: secondary soil & climate data, no rice!</li></ul>www.africanuances.nl<br />LIVSIM<br /><ul><li> Outputs: milk, manure, herd changes
  17. 17. Input: herd structure, dynamics and feeding.
  18. 18. Main issue: herd dynamics and feeding data. </li></li></ul><li>Minimum data approaches<br />The “rapid adoption of the MD approach appears to confirm the hypothesis that there is a demand for less data-intensive, less complex models that can be implemented with existing data to support policy decision making, particularly in the context of developing countries where data availability may be limited” . Antle et al. 2010.<br />MD Trade-off analysis<br /><ul><li> Output: proportion of adoption new practice & others related to that.
  19. 19. Input: incomes, yields, prices, costs (means, SD)
  20. 20. Main issue: definition of these distributions. </li></ul>LIECABS<br /><ul><li> Output: carbon balance (DM) and livestock intensity and efficiency.
  21. 21. Input: crops areas, yields and inputs; livestock numbers and type, feeding strategy.
  22. 22. Main issue: can secondary data provide SOM and nutrient balance.</li></li></ul><li>Scenarios<br />Tools to deal with uncertainty attach to future farming dynamics and to assess the potential influence of alternative policies/technologies on these dynamics. <br />Scenarios on drivers (exploration) vs. policy/technologies/practices (assessment)<br /><ul><li> Drivers or technologies?
  23. 23. What drivers/technologies?
  24. 24. Exploration or assessment?
  25. 25. Regional or ‘global’ specific?
  26. 26. Stakeholders or only research? </li></ul>http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/images/ts-2.gif<br />

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