Presented by John McDermott (IFPRI) at the ILRI@40 Livestock and sustainable food and nutrition security Workshop, Addis Ababa, 7 November 2014

1. Food and nutrition security:
Radical departures
John McDermott (IFPRI)
ILRI@40 Livestock and sustainable food and nutrition security
workshop
Addis Ababa, 7 November 2014

2. Future Food Systems
Vision
Healthy and sustainable food systems in which
people participate in inputs, production, knowledge,
storage, processing, marketing, utilization.
• Capacity
• Partnerships
• Gender
• Scalability

3. Underlying drivers – not radical
• Increasing population but slower growth (lots of young
in next 40 y)
• Main growth markets in low and lower-middle income
countries; much more trade in Africa and with Asia
• Demographics – youth in low-income / older in high-income
• Urbanization
• Income / Wealth (6-7% p.a.) in Africa
• Radical change in communications / information and
knowledge management
• Rapid improvements in energy, transportation, water,
sanitation infrastructure

4. Social
• Rapid movement in information with better
prediction and real-time rapid response
• Crowd-sourcing of information and opinion – more
awareness of social goods and bads
• Greater networking for just-in-time inputs into
production processes
• Faster innovation coming from unexpected sources
• Main impediment could be governance – with poor
governance disabling change (but harder to
control) – most countries improve and some don’t

5. Technical
• More precise bio-technical interventions – smaller scale product
development / niche products for different enviroments (bio-engineering;
genetic manipulation)
• Landless / small land livestock production systems with high value
in Africa; intensification and specialization (milk, chickens, pigs/
specialized feeds included new processes for breaking-down
complex carbohyrdates). Much more intensive.
• Likewise more diverse storage, and processing with locally
adapted and niche products
• Less high value will have larger land size – beef, goats and sheep
• Easier networking and transportation
• New livestock species including insects and rodents.
• Rapid diagnostics, analysis tools – get analysis from anywhere
(agricultural version of tele-medicine)

6. Business
• “Markets” (including taxes) for externalities built into
input costs and prices – environmental services; e-markets
• Higher labour costs (as in Asia)
• A few larger firms – strong interest from multinationals;
• But opportunities and rapidly growing number of
smaller and innovative firms with diverse goals (social
goals as well as profit maximization)
• Much more value addition beyond the farm –storage,
processing, marketing and utilization
• Risk management critical – much more volatility;
innovative insurance tools; livestock production better
at adapting than crops

7. Greatest gains
Social
• Rapid movement in information with better prediction and real-time rapid response
• Greater networking for just-in-time inputs into production processes
Technical
• More precise bio-technical interventions – smaller scale product development / niche products
for different enviroments (bio-engineering; genetic manipulation)
Technological efficiency
Making better use of available resources (management practices, land, water)
Reducing waste
lmproved feeds, breeds (adaptive and disease traits, water) , health(diagnostics prevention and
treatment)
Business
• A few larger firms – strong interest from multinationals;
• But opportunities and rapidly growing number of smaller and innovative firms with diverse goals
(social goals as well as profit maximization)
• Much more value addition beyond the farm –storage, processing, marketing and utilization

8. Interventions with greatest
potential
Social
Economies of scale (smallholder organized groups and governance)
Knowledge sharing and learning
Use of ICT to deliver information and link to markets
Family farming and job creation for youth
Technical
• More precise bio-technical interventions – smaller scale product development / niche products
for different enviroments (bio-engineering; genetic manipulation)
• Landless / small land livestock production systems with high value in Africa; intensification and
specialization (milk, chickens, pigs/ specialized feeds included new processes for breaking-down
complex carbohyrdates). Much more intensive.
Business
• But opportunities and rapidly growing number of smaller and innovative firms with diverse goals
(social goals as well as profit maximization)
• Much more value addition beyond the farm –storage, processing, marketing and utilization

9. Opportunities for innovative
research
Social
• Faster innovation coming from unexpected sources
Technical
• Likewise more diverse storage, and processing with locally
adapted and niche products
• New livestock species including insects and rodents.
• Rapid diagnostics, analysis tools – get analysis from anywhere
(agricultural version of tele-medicine)
Business
• “Markets” (including taxes) for externalities built into input costs
and prices – environmental services; e-markets
• Risk management critical – much more volatility; innovative
insurance tools; livestock production better at adapting than
crops

10. Complementarities with other
issues
Social
• Rapid movement in information with better prediction and real-time
rapid response and faster learning by all involved
• Crowd-sourcing of information and opinion – more awareness of
social goods and bads
• Main impediment could be governance – with poor governance
disabling change (but harder to control) – most countries improve
and some don’t
Technical
• Easier networking and transportation
Business
• Risk management critical – much more volatility; innovative
insurance tools; livestock production better at adapting than
crops