Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Modelling approaches to address crop-residue tradeoffs in mixed crop-livestock systems

1,915 views

Published on

Presentation by Mark T. van Wijk, Mariana C. Rufino and Lieven Claessens (WUR) to the:CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programme Livestock Policy Group meeting, 1 December 2009

Published in: Technology, Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Modelling approaches to address crop-residue tradeoffs in mixed crop-livestock systems

  1. 1. Modelling approaches to address crop-residue tradeoffs in mixed crop-livestock systems Mark T. van Wijk, Mariana C. Rufino and Lieven Claessens Wageningen University, Plant Production Systems email: [email_address] CIP, Nairobi Presentation: CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programme Livestock Policy Group, 1 December 2009
  2. 2. Setup <ul><li>Intro: role of crop residues within farming system </li></ul><ul><li>Something on trade offs </li></ul><ul><li>Our past work </li></ul><ul><li>Models and farm characterization </li></ul><ul><li>Role of models within SLP </li></ul>
  3. 3. Aim of SLP project <ul><li>Optimizing livelihood and environmental </li></ul><ul><li>benefits from crop residues in smallholder </li></ul><ul><li>crop-livestock systems in sub-Saharan </li></ul><ul><li>Africa and South Asia: regional case studies </li></ul>
  4. 4. Theory of intensification (from a NRM perspective) After: McIntyre et al. 1992, Fernández-Rivera et al. 2002
  5. 5. Crop residues Manure Feed Food Fertilisers Food + services Feed Market Food Livestock Grasslands Cropland Household
  6. 6. Crop residues have different functions <ul><li>Fodder for livestock  short term productivity livestock </li></ul><ul><li>Input for soil  long term productivity crops </li></ul><ul><li>These are just the first, direct effects. These, </li></ul><ul><li>in turn, will have cascading effects on </li></ul><ul><li>functioning of farming system and livelihood! </li></ul>
  7. 7. Trade off <ul><li>Limiting resources: changes in allocation of resources will positively affect one aspect of the system, and negatively another aspect </li></ul><ul><li>E.g., more crop residues to livestock can affect soil fertility negatively in the longer term </li></ul>
  8. 8. Role of simulation models <ul><li>Can help to analyse effects which are </li></ul><ul><li>difficult to measure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term effects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What-if questions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk analyses </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Some analyses performed in AfricaNUANCES project <ul><li>Research project </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Typology of farming systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data mining: e.g. experiments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Combined model of livestock, manure management, crop and soil </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Used for </li></ul><ul><ul><li>quantifying trade offs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>identifying intensification strategies </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. NUANCES-FARMSIM FIELD: dynamic, summary model of CROP and SOIL processes LIVSIM: individual based dynamic, summary model of livestock HEAPSIM: dynamic summary model of manure management and storage LABOURSIM and CASHSIM: summary models of socio-economic components and their interactions with production comp.
  11. 11. Trade off analysis N losses at farm scale [kg season -1 ] Farm scale maize yield [kg season -1 ] Tittonell, Van Wijk et al, 2007, Agricultural Systems 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
  12. 12. <ul><li>Looking for best possible trade off (pareto solutions) between indicators </li></ul><ul><li>User should then make decision on what is preferable! </li></ul>Results of trade off analysis model input (parameters, management settings model system model output (set of indicators)
  13. 13. Analysis with crop residues: results of a sensitivity analysis Van Wijk et al, 2009, Agricultural Systems
  14. 14. Degree of crop-livestock integration Stocks, flows and assets System state II + + Management intensity + + System state III System state I Household “Well-being” Stress Alleviation Tittonell, Van Wijk et al, 2009, Agricultural Systems
  15. 15. Models and Farm characterization
  16. 16. milk feed $ feed $ $ feed crop residues nutrients $ fertilisers On-farm Rented land manure Investment capacity Labour availability Access to credit Access to information
  17. 17. milk feed $ feed $ $ feed crop residues nutrients $ fertilisers On-farm feed crop residues nutrients $ fertilisers Where to invest How many cows? What type of feed? How much fodder produced on-farm? How long can this be sustained? manure Rented land
  18. 18. milk feed $ manure feed $ feed crop residues nutrients ensiling feed $ fertilisers crop residues nutrients Rented land On-farm $ fertilisers
  19. 19. Differences in: Resource endowment Decision making Farm household types
  20. 20. Dury, Rufino, Van Wijk, De Ridder, Zingore and Giller, 2009 AEE submitted
  21. 21. Analysis tools Parameters Input data Biophysical world Expert knowledge Experimentation Surveys Simulation models
  22. 22. Analysis tools Parameters Input data Biophysical world Expert knowledge Experimentation Surveys Decision world Preferences Opportunities + Interviews Surveys Simulation models Optimisation tools
  23. 23. Analysis tools Parameters Input data Biophysical world Expert knowledge Experimentation Surveys Decision world Preferences Opportunities + Interviews Surveys Preferences One decision maker (DM) Multiple DMs Influenced by the environment Opportunities Resources available Inputs prices Outputs prices Simulation models Optimisation tools
  24. 24. Trade offs: multiple objectives! <ul><li>Maximise gross margin </li></ul><ul><li>Maximise labour productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Minimise soil erosion </li></ul><ul><li>Minimise variability of production </li></ul><ul><li>Maximise social acceptability </li></ul><ul><li>Short term versus long term productivity </li></ul>
  25. 25. Where do models fit within SLP? <ul><li>Farm characterization: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Available resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Farming strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Statistical and econometric analysis of current strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Data mining: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Data for parameterization & testing of models </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Model analyses of existing and new farming strategies: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term effects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What-if questions of key indicators! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk analyses </li></ul></ul>

×