LMP process and its support for the
incorporation of livestock in NAIPs
Sirak Bahta
International Livestock Research Institute
The second consultative workshop on “Supporting Member States to
Incorporate Livestock in their NAIPS”, Accra, Ghana, 10-12 March 2020

Why a Livestock Master Plan (LMP)?
• Chronic under-investment in the livestock sector
• Agriculture or Livestock Ministers lack an evidence base (ROIs or returns on
investment) to obtain financial resources for livestock development
• A need for stronger human capacity for quantitative livestock sector planning
to inform decision making
• Effective livestock development requires sector analysis to understand the
current situation, with predictive analysis needed to set long-term strategies
and design action plans
• Governments need realistic action plans to meet targets in five-year national
economic development plans

What an LMP will tell us about the
livestock sector?
 Current contributions and constraints
 Long-run potential to contribute to development objectives
 Priority livestock commodities and value chains
 Proposed investment options
 Capacity building for fact-based, quantitative planning

Existing Livestock Master Plans (LMPs)
ETHIOPIA TANZANIA RWANDA UZBEKISTAN BIHAR STATE (INDIA)
World Bank now
developing
$200+ million
sector
investment
$624
million
investment
plan
proposed
$261
million
investment
plan
proposed
World Bank
US$180
million
sector
investment
(US$ 895M, 16%
from public)
endorsed by the
state Chief
Minister

Kenya
Gambia
Guinea
Nepal
Bihar State/India
Upcoming LMP

LMP- Deliverables
LSA- Livestock
Sector Analysis
Past and current
trends
LSS- Livestock Sector
Strategy
A long-run (15-year)
foresight analysis
Road maps
Five year VC
specific
investment
plans
Stakeholder engagement and consultation
6-8 months 6 months 4 months

1. Coalition of change
Experts
1.1 Setting up the team
Institutions
Budget
1.2 Initial assessments
Setting up the team
(Consortium +country experts)

Module 1: Initial assessment
Proposal phase/development

1. Coalition of change
Experts
1.1 Setting up the team
Institutions
Budget
Result: Coalition of change determines the modalities of the implementation of the
methodology to ensure a broad-based participation by stakeholders, reports on initial
assessments (1-report) and creates a database from a stakeholder interaction and other sources
Setting up the team
(Consortium +country experts)
1.2 Initial assessments 1.3 Stakeholder interactions
Availability of quality data
Review of policy and technical
environment
Roles/representation of region/county
officers
Constraints and opportunities in
livestock sector
With in the sector
Between sectors
Comprehensive view of the links
between institutions in and out of the
sector

2. Diagnosis phase: Livestock sector analysis (LSA)- 1 report
2.1 Livestock systems and
household level analysis
Capacity building in LSIPT,
GLEAM and modelling tools
Identification and
Characterization of livestock
production systems
Parameterization of LSIPT
Build dynamic herd and
economic sector model
(HESM)
Baseline

2. Diagnosis phase: Livestock sector analysis (LSA)- 1 report
2.1 Livestock systems and
household level analysis
Capacity building in LSIPT,
GLEAM and modelling tools
Identification and
Characterization of livestock
production systems
Parameterization of LSIPT
Build dynamic herd and
economic sector model
(HESM)
Result: Baseline information for the Livestock Master Plan
(1 comprehensive report)
Baseline
2.3 Assessment of livestock VCs
Breakdown of the costs
and margins ,
information on
production trends and
VC performance
Profitability at the level
of each VCs
Institutional and
operational analysis of
VCs
2.4 Climate change
Livestock
contributi
on to
GHG
Brief technical
notes on a
number of core
thematic areas
2.5 Thematic
areas
Identify and
characterize livestock
product VCs
Traceability,
institutional and
legal frameworks;
natural resource
management;,
quarantine and
phytosanitary
regulations;
livestock credit
and insurance
Assess the
Greenhouse
Gas (GHG)
emissions of
the livestock
sector under
current
management

3. Foresight analysis: Livestock sector strategy (LSS) and Road maps
3.1 Livestock sector strategy (LSS)

LIVESTOCK SECTOR STRATEGY (LSS)
WHAT IS IT?
• A LSS is a 15-year modernization strategy
• Uses national development goals as decision criteria
• Compares the alternative investment interventions (combined technology and
policy)
• It provides quantitative and evidence-based justification for public and private
investment , decisions based on welfare impacts and ROIs
 For prioritized commodity value chains (VCs) of the livestock sector
• It is the basis for 5-year targeting and scenario analyses of investment intervention
options

3. Foresight analysis: Livestock sector strategy (LSS) and Road maps
Testing BAU & the with investment intervention
scenarios
3.1 Livestock sector strategy (LSS)
Assess national/regional supply/demand situation

BAU- Business as usual or with current investment
Production
consumption gap

3. Foresight analysis: Livestock sector strategy (LSS) and Road maps
Testing BAU & the with investment intervention
scenarios
3.1 Livestock sector strategy (LSS)
Assess national/regional supply/demand situation
With investment intervention analysis of technical
and economic performance of production
systems, trends of trade and market dynamics

• BAU- Business as usual or with current investment
• WI- With intervention or additional investment

Contribution of red meat to GDP by agro-ecological zones (ETB million)
Contribution of total milk to GDP by agro-ecological zones (ETB million)
Spec.
6%
MRS
38%
MRD
21%
LG
35%
Spec.
5%
MRS
27%
MRD
12%
LG
56%

3. Foresight analysis: Livestock sector strategy (LSS) and Road maps
Testing BAU & the with investment intervention
scenarios
3.1 Livestock sector strategy (LSS)
Assess national/regional supply/demand situation
With investment intervention analysis of technical
and economic performance of production
systems, trends of trade and market dynamics
Investment analysis of recommended intervention
(15 year NPV, BCR, ROI, EANPV)

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS (e.g. DAIRY BIHAR-INDIA)
Impact of interventions: 15-years Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for With
Intervention (WI-1) scenario by production subsystems (at cow dairy production
unit or herd level).

3. Foresight analysis: Livestock sector strategy (LSS) and Road maps
Testing BAU & the with investment intervention
scenarios
3.1 Livestock sector strategy (LSS)
Assess national/regional supply/demand situation
With investment intervention analysis of technical
and economic performance of production
systems, trends of trade and market dynamics
Investment analysis of recommended intervention
(15 year NPV, BCR, ROI, EANPV)
Welfare effects of proposed scenarios, long term
costs and returns on investment
3.2 Road maps
Specific vision, targets, investment
context and specific policy and
technology interventions

LIVESTOCK SECTOR ROADMAP
A 5-year detailed investment plan based on the LSS includes:
 Vision
 Investment strategies and targets
 Key challenges and strategies
 Impacts (population, production, GDP contribution, etc.)
 Budgets (amount, Source)
 Time plan

3. Foresight analysis: Livestock sector strategy (LSS) and Road maps
Testing BAU & the with investment intervention
scenarios
3.1 Livestock sector strategy (LSS)
Assess national/regional supply/demand situation
With investment intervention analysis of technical
and economic performance of production
systems, trends of trade and market dynamics
Investment analysis of recommended intervention
(15 year NPV, BCR, ROI, EANPV)
Welfare effects of proposed scenarios, long term
costs and returns on investment
3.2 Road maps
Specific vision, targets, investment
context and specific policy and
technology interventions
Impacts (production, GDP,
household income, cost and returns
on investment)
Sequence plan of action (Gant
chart)

GANT CHART (e.g. DAIRY BIHAR-INDIA)
Investment Intervention
Activities timeline
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Investments to improve feeding
Establishing fodder seed production farms (to grow from
current 0 to 3 private/public enterprises in 5 years)
Commercial animal feeds plants – Construction of 2 plants
under COMFED
Strengthen the existing pasture/forage seed quality
control laboratories
Breeding Investments
Establish a new semen production centre with a capacity of
5 million straws production.
Renovate and rehabilitate the 3 liquid nitrogen cryo-vessel
storage
Strengthen the existing breeding farms and establish 2
new cattle breeding farms
Establish 1,000 new AI centres
Make the existing 2 non-functional semen banks functional
and increase 2 additional semen banks

3. Foresight analysis: Livestock sector strategy (LSS) and Road maps
Testing BAU & the with investment intervention
scenarios
3.1 Livestock sector strategy (LSS)
Assess national/regional supply/demand situation
With investment intervention analysis of technical
and economic performance of production
systems, trends of trade and market dynamics
Investment analysis of recommended intervention
(15 year NPV, BCR, ROI, EANPV)
Welfare effects of proposed scenarios, long term
costs and returns on investment
3.2 Road maps
Specific vision, targets, investment
context and specific policy and
technology interventions
Impacts (production, GDP,
household income, cost and returns
on investment)
Sequence plan of action (Gant
chart)
5-year detailed investment plan of
priority value chains
Adaptation to
Regional/county
LMPs &
Promotion and
advocacy
Regional/county level 5-
year detailed investment
plans and Strategies

3. Foresight analysis: Livestock sector strategy (LSS) and Road maps
Testing BAU & the with investment intervention
scenarios
3.1 Livestock sector strategy (LSS)
Assess national/regional supply/demand situation
With investment intervention analysis of technical
and economic performance of production
systems, trends of trade and market dynamics
Result: Livestock Strategy and Master Plan (15-year livestock strategy and 5 year
value chain road maps)- 1 LSS report, 6-7 VC specific roadmaps and 1 report on 5
regional roadmaps and adapted CIDPs
Welfare effects of proposed scenarios, long term
costs and returns on investment
Investment analysis of recommended intervention
(15 year NPV, BCR, ROI, EANPV)
5-year detailed investment plan of
priority value chains
3.2 Road maps
Specific vision, targets, investment
context and specific policy and
technology interventions
Impacts (production, GDP,
household income, cost and returns
on investment)
Sequence plan of action (Gant
chart)
Adaptation to
Regional/county
LMPs &
Promotion and
advocacy
Regional/county level 5-
year detailed investment
plans and Strategies

Key
ASS – Agriculture Sector Strategy
ASP – Agriculture Sector Plan
LSS – Livestock Sector Strategy
LSP – Livestock Sector Plan
NDP – National Development
Plan
LMP in the NAIPS

Key
ASS – Agriculture Sector Strategy
ASP – Agriculture Sector Plan
LSS – Livestock Sector Strategy
LSP – Livestock Sector Plan
NDP – National Development
Plan
LMP in the NAIPS
LMPs

No clear link between interventions and
resulting productions/targets.
Targets and impact can be traced back to
animal and state levels.
Agriculture roadmap Value additions by the LMP
Base year and projected impact of interventions
at animal, herd and household level are not
available.
Animal, herd and household level impacts
of interventions are presented.
Production is not disaggregated by species Production is disaggregated by speciesThe impact of interventions on animals productivity,
livestock population and state level production targets
is not clear.
Targets can be traced back to animal and state
level.
Species based approach is observed Value chain based approach is used.Feed balance analysis is not reported Feed analysis is done to see the potential
production increase
Challenges, opportunities and interventions are
uniform over all areas of the state; not disaggregated
by production zones;
Country is divided into three livestock production
zones with similar challenges and opportunities
that make proposed interventions more fine-
tuned;
Targets are set based on national/per capita
availability of livestock product. It didn’t account the
consumption side.
Targets consider both production and
consumption side of livestock products. A
detailed production- consumption balance for
each livestock subsector is presented.
Internal rate of return of investments (IRR) and net
present value (NPV) of investments are not presented
Internal rate of return of investments (IRR) and
net present value (NPV) of investments are
presented
Projected impact of interventions on the contribution
of livestock to the sate GSDP is not available
Base year and projected impact of interventions
on GSDP are presented. GSDP contributions are
disaggregated by value chains, species and
breeds. This disaggregation helps to prioritize
value chains/species/breeds
Prepared by a group of senior experts and presented
for and circulated among stockholders and experts for
review and comments. Then based on comments
revised and finalized
A computer model with a set of quantitative
tools of the Livestock Sector Investment and
Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) is used to create a livestock
herd and economic sector simulation model
(HESM).
Livestock population projections are not available Livestock population are projected

Challenges: Setting targets in current LMPs
M2
Coalition
for change
M3
Diagnosis
livestock in
the Micro
economy
M4
diagnosis
livestock at
the macro
economy
M5 Synthesis
action plan and
advocacy plans
and advocacy
messages

Setting targets in future LMPs

Challenges
- Data is currently used in an ad hoc manner,
projecting over different scenarios based on strong
assumptions.
- Limitations in modeling changes
- in and evolution of markets
- trade and value chains
- Gender and environmental considerations
- Scenario setting
- Low implementation

Scenario setting
Possible
tradeoffs

Opportunities
- Increased need and interest for livestock sector
investment strategies
- Future LMPs to benefit from BMGF-funded POLICIES
- More robust tools
- Post-LMP engagement (scorecards, capacity building,
priority setting, identifying good future LMP candidates)
- Links and alignment to other policy processes
(NAIP/CAADP) – metrics, tools, and approaches

This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
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