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Using the Livestock Master Plan (LMP) process to influence
pro-poor livestock development in Ethiopia and Tanzania
Barry S...
Livestock Master Plans (LMP): Motivation
• Under-investment in the livestock sector is a major constraint to
the livestock...
Ethiopia Livestock Master Plan (LMP):
Origin, Purpose, and Future
• The Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture requested BMGF to...
Stakeholder Process of Developing a Livestock Sector
Analysis (LSA) & Livestock Master Plan (LMP)
• Creating a LMP require...
How was the LSA and LMP interventions chosen?
with indicators of GOE goals for GTP II
Using the livestock sector model bui...
Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) Production Zones
MOA livestock production zones and sub-
zones in Ethiopia
Livestock Production System
Lowland Grazing (LG-L) Highland Mixe...
Production and productivity
parameters of cattle by production zone
Lowland Grazing (LG) Mixed Rainfall
Deficient Sufficie...
The Six Priority Key LMP Commodity Value
Chains for GTP II
A. Dairy -- improved with AI and Synchronization, feed, and hea...
Smallholder Family and Specialized Commercial Systems are
both Winners in Ethiopia: Returns on Investment 2013-2028
33
24
...
Most animal systems can reduce poverty during GTP II
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Family cattle
(8)
F...
Positive production-consumption balances projected for GTP II
(2015-2020) for red meat, chicken meat, and all meat (thousa...
Positive projected production-consumption balances for cow milk
and all milk (million liters), (2015-2020) with LMP interv...
GDP contribution from LMP interventions for
milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs
(2020)
74,064
82,489
10,054
5,577
-
...
GHG (CO2e ) emissions from BAU (without intervention) and with
interventions with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in Mt ton)
-...
Percentage increase in Red Meat production and CO2e emissions
from interventions with “business as usual” (BAU or LMP) and...
What do LMP results mean for the
Ethiopia 5-year development plan - GTP II
Livestock development efforts for GTP II need t...
Comparison of Public and Private investment shares by
Major Value Chain (ETB Millions)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500...
Minister of Ag Reaction to LMP
• The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and implement
the LMP” thru the GTP II (5-y...
The Core LMP Team – MALF, ILRI staff (& BMGF)
THANK YOU!
THANK YOU!
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Using the Livestock Master Plan (LMP) process to influence pro-poor livestock development in Ethiopia and Tanzania

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Presented by Barry Shapiro at the Launch of Tanzania Livestock Master Plan, Tanzania, 23 February 2016

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Using the Livestock Master Plan (LMP) process to influence pro-poor livestock development in Ethiopia and Tanzania

  1. 1. Using the Livestock Master Plan (LMP) process to influence pro-poor livestock development in Ethiopia and Tanzania Barry Shapiro (ILRI) Launch of Tanzania Livestock Master Plan, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 23 February 2016
  2. 2. Livestock Master Plans (LMP): Motivation • Under-investment in the livestock sector is a major constraint to the livestock sector contributing to national development goals • Ag Ministers lack ammunition (returns on investment) to get financial resources for livestock development (from Ministries of Finance) • Lack of human capacity for quantitative livestock sector planning is also common • Effective livestock development requires sector analysis to understand the current situation, to set long-term strategy and make action plans • African governments need realistic action plans (LMPs) for meeting targets in national economic development plans • Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation agreed to support capacity building for fact-based, realistic financial planning
  3. 3. Ethiopia Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Origin, Purpose, and Future • The Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture requested BMGF to fund capacity building of MOA staff to do fact-based livestock development planning • The MOA asked for ILRI to provide training and backstopping • The LMP has become the livestock development action plan under the new 5-year Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan • The Gov’t of Ethiopian and donors (BMGF and World Bank so far) are now funding implementation of the LMP • BMGF has now funded ILRI to help the Tanzania MALF do a LMP • Discussions are on-going to do LMPs in Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, and India • Creating LMPs in developing countries is a way to influence pro- poor livestock development
  4. 4. Stakeholder Process of Developing a Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) & Livestock Master Plan (LMP) • Creating a LMP required “quantitative sector” analysis (LSA) but “stakeholder” involvement is essential • Dynamic herd and sector models are built to do the 15 year livestock sector analysis (LSA) –baseline, projections and foresight analysis • The LMP process is quantitative, but consultative. Over 50 specialists in Ethiopia provided data and parameters on animal productivity, value chains and cross-cutting issues • Stakeholders helped create a national data base and model baselines, and helped identify potential interventions • The Technical Advisory Committee guided the process, made technical input interventions and helped ensure the results are useful – realistic and relevant
  5. 5. How was the LSA and LMP interventions chosen? with indicators of GOE goals for GTP II Using the livestock sector model built on a herd model, potential LMP intervention impacts were assessed against Ethiopian national development objectives for GTP II -- measured by livestock development indicators. The national GTP objectives (indicator in parentheses) are the following: • Reducing poverty (household income) • Achieving food security (production-consumption balance) • Contributing to economic growth (GDP or national income) • Contributing to exports (foreign exchange earnings) • Contributing to climatic sustainability (GHG emissions) The LSA and LMP have demonstrated the potential of the livestock sector to reach national development goals
  6. 6. Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) Production Zones
  7. 7. MOA livestock production zones and sub- zones in Ethiopia Livestock Production System Lowland Grazing (LG-L) Highland Mixed (MR-H) LGAP LGP HMR-MD Medium Small C C C-F Specialized (SP) C: Cattle Cam: Camel S: Sheep S-F: Sheep fattening Be: Bees G:Goats EQ: Equines D: Dairy C-F: Cattle fattening P: Backyard Poultry L: Layers Br: Broilers S Small L Br Be MediumSmallMedium D C G HMR-MS Small S CC S Cam Cam C Small S Cam G G G S G S C-F D S-F P P Be P P Be Be P Be Be P Be LSIPT application process ….
  8. 8. Production and productivity parameters of cattle by production zone Lowland Grazing (LG) Mixed Rainfall Deficient Sufficient (MRD) Mixed Rainfall Sufficient (MRS) Lowland Grazing (LG) Dairy Specialized AP PS PM S M S M S M Herd size 9 7 18 2 6 3 9 5 100 56 56 58 57 58 60 65 85 90 Parturition rate (%) 14 12 10 11 12 12 8 8 5 Mortality rate female calves (%) 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 1 1 Mortality rate female sub adults (%) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 Mortality rate Female adult (%) 15 16 16 12 16 15 10 6 6 Mortality rate male calves (%) 9 12 12 8 8 8 6 1 1 Mortality rate male sub adults (%) 7 9 9 5 6 4 4 3 3 Mortality rate male adults (%) 11.5 10.9 11.9 11.9 11.4 11.5 10.2 32.6 35.5 Herd size 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.0 1.0 1.9 5.0 8.4 6.0 LSIPT application process ….
  9. 9. The Six Priority Key LMP Commodity Value Chains for GTP II A. Dairy -- improved with AI and Synchronization, feed, and health 1. Improved Family Dairy systems & value chains in wet highlands and dairy belts (including peri-urban) 2. Specialized Commercial Dairy production & value chains B. Red meat (and milk) systems improved with health and feed 1. Improved Family Red Meat-Milk systems in all production zones (cattle, sheep, goats and camels) 2. Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots and On-farm Fattening C. Poultry improved with crossbreeding & exotics, health and feed 1. Improved Family Poultry in all production zones 2. Specialized Industrial Poultry – Broilers and Layers
  10. 10. Smallholder Family and Specialized Commercial Systems are both Winners in Ethiopia: Returns on Investment 2013-2028 33 24 0 10 20 30 20-YearIRR(%) Small Medium Panel A: Improved Family Dairy 29 43 0 10 20 30 40 Small Medium Panel B: Specialized Dairy
  11. 11. Most animal systems can reduce poverty during GTP II 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Family cattle (8) Family sheep (16) Family goat (25) Family camel (15) Crossbred cattle in MRS (10) Improved family poultry (25) Annual incremental income per farm (ET Birr) Annual incremental income per farm ET Birr
  12. 12. Positive production-consumption balances projected for GTP II (2015-2020) for red meat, chicken meat, and all meat (thousand tons), with LMP interventions . Consumption Production Panel A: Red Meat 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Consumption Production Panel B: Chicken Meat 50 100 150 200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Consumption Production Panel C: All Meat 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Based on LSA results.
  13. 13. Positive projected production-consumption balances for cow milk and all milk (million liters), (2015-2020) with LMP interventions Panel A: Cow Milk Consumption Production 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Based on LSA results. Panel B: All Milk Consumption Production 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Based on LSA results.
  14. 14. GDP contribution from LMP interventions for milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs (2020) 74,064 82,489 10,054 5,577 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Red meat (ETB million) All milk (ETB million) Egg (ETB million) Chicken meat (ETB million)
  15. 15. GHG (CO2e ) emissions from BAU (without intervention) and with interventions with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in Mt ton) - 20 40 60 80 100 120 Red Meat (ton) Chicken and egg (ton) All meat (ton) GHG CO2e emission (in MtT) - BAU (2030) GHG CO2e emission (in MtT) - With intervention and BAU offtake rate (2030) GHG CO2e emission (in MtT) - With intervention and CRGE offtake rate (2030)
  16. 16. Percentage increase in Red Meat production and CO2e emissions from interventions with “business as usual” (BAU or LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% % increase in production with BAU offtake rate % increase in production with CRGE offtake rate % increase in CO2e emission with BAU offtake rate % increase in CO2e emission with CRGE offtake rate 86% 69% 34% 7% Red Meat Red Meat Percent (%)
  17. 17. What do LMP results mean for the Ethiopia 5-year development plan - GTP II Livestock development efforts for GTP II need to: • Invest in all LMP interventions to eliminate poverty in 18% of livestock keeping households (>11 million people) • Focus on poultry development to achieve better food security, enable red meat exports, and lower GHG emissions • Combination of cattle and poultry to improve food security – lower domestic meat prices to increase exports and foreign exchange earnings • Focus on dairy development to achieve dairy product food security in domestic markets and also increase export earnings
  18. 18. Comparison of Public and Private investment shares by Major Value Chain (ETB Millions) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Cow Dairy Red meat Poultry Public Private
  19. 19. Minister of Ag Reaction to LMP • The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and implement the LMP” thru the GTP II (5-year development plan) • Livestock State Ministry now owns the LSA, GTP II and LMP • Livestock State Ministry used the LMP to set targets for the GTP II (2015-2020) and it is the livestock sector implementation plan for the GTP II • Ministry of Livestock & Fisheries now created and the Livestock Sectors are based on the commodity value chains recommended in the LMP for investment • MLF is setting up its own policy & planning unit and is committed to expand the use of the LSA/LMP tools in planning, policy analysis and research
  20. 20. The Core LMP Team – MALF, ILRI staff (& BMGF) THANK YOU! THANK YOU!

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