R. Lilieholm, M. Johnson, S. Meyer,
R. Boone, R. Reid, J. Worden, D. Nkedianye, M. Said,
S. Kifugo, D. Kaelo & J. Stabach
University of Nairobi, Kenya
March 14, 2014

Spatially explicit models that depict future
landscapes under various land use policies
& “drivers of change” –
From
this…
To
this…
Anticipates future landscape
conditions by modeling a
wide range of alternative
scenarios
• Socio-demographic
• Economic
• Biophysical

Baker et al. 2005
2014
Understanding
how today’s
decisions affect
tomorrow’s
outcomes…
Basic & applied research on
biophysical & socioeconomic
systems dynamics
Willamette River Basin (Baker et al. 2004)

 Urbanization...

 Urbanization
 Mining…

 Urbanization
 Mining
 Deforestation, Fencing
& Agriculture…

 Urbanization
 Mining
 Deforestation, Fencing
& Agriculture
 Climate Change…

 How will future development & climate change
affect the sustainability of pastoralists, wildlife &
historic migration patterns?

 How will future development & climate change
affect the sustainability of pastoralists, wildlife &
historic migration patterns?
 Nairobi National Park
 Masai Mara National Reserve
 Amboseli National Park

Map from Reid et al. 2008

Map from Reid et al. 2008

Map from Reid et al. 2008

Map from Reid et al. 2008

2
3
4
5
1

 Ecotourism pressures
(New lodges & increased
visitation)
 Deforestation
 Fencing

 Ecotourism pressures
 (New lodges &
increased visitation)
 Agricultural development

Understanding how today’s decisions
affect tomorrow’s outcomes…

 Modeling wildebeest
migration behavior
using:
 Hourly GPS tracking
 Agent-based models

 Modeling wildebeest
migration behavior
using:
 Hourly GPS tracking
 Agent-based models
 Modeling alternative
future development
scenarios using:
 Remote sensing
 Logistic regression
 Bayesian Belief
Networks

 Modeling wildebeest
migration behavior
using:
 Hourly GPS tracking
 Agent-based models

 Modeling wildebeest
migration behavior
using:
 Hourly GPS tracking
 Agent-based models
 Modeling alternative
future development
scenarios using:
 Remote sensing
 Logistic regression
 Bayesian Belief
Networks

Landsat Thematic Mapper October 17, 1988

Landsat Thematic Mapper August 19, 2010

SPOT October 13, 2010 Land Cover

SPOT 2010 Land Cover with Fencing Locations

Landsat Thematic Mapper October 17, 1988

SPOT 2010 Land Cover with Fencing Locations
2010
2040

Isinya

Isinya

Isinya

Isinya

Isinya

Kitengela 2003

Kitengela 2013

Isinya

Tuala 2002

Tuala 2013

By modeling how wildebeest
migrate across the landscape, we can
begin to understand how wildlife will
react to changing human & natural
systems…

• Develop a range of alternative futures

• Develop a range of alternative futures
• Engage stakeholders in model exploration

• Develop a range of alternative futures
• Engage stakeholders in model exploration
• Identify areas for critical needs

• Develop a range of alternative futures
• Engage stakeholders in model exploration
• Identify areas for critical needs
• Anticipate future conflicts

And how can we
achieve it?

 Our research is supported by:
 NSF grant DEB-0919383
 The Maine Sustainability Solutions Initiative (SSI)
(NSF grant EPS-0904155 )
 CSU NREL & CCC
 International Livestock Research
Research Institute (ILRI)
 Kenya Wildlife Service
 African Conservation Centre

www.mainelandusefutures.org

Asante sana!