Warming will not be evenly distributed around the globe. - Land areas will warm more than oceans in part due to water's ability to store heat. - High latitudes will warm more than low latitudes in part due to positive feedback effects from melting ice. Most of North America; all of Africa, Europe, northern and central Asia; and most of Central and South America are likely to warm more than the global average. Projections suggest that the warming will be close to the global average in south Asia, Australia and New Zealand, and southern South America.
People, the planet and sustainable livestock
People,the planet,and sustainablelivestockJeroen DijkmanLivestock live talk seminarILRI Nairobi18 January 2013
What this presentation is about• Scarcity, demand and the implications of business as usual;• Unpacking sustainable livestock;• The change we want;• One world, one Agenda
The Future…In the next 30 years we’re adding two Chinas....
200 250 100 0 150 50Apr-01Aug-01Dec-01Apr-02Aug-02Dec-02Apr-03Aug-03Dec-03Apr-04Aug-04Dec-04Apr-05Aug-05Dec-05Apr-06Aug-06Dec-06Apr-07Aug-07Dec-07Apr-08Aug-08 Commodity Price Index Monthly PriceDec-08Apr-09Aug-09Dec-09Apr-10Aug-10 Commodity prices on the riseDec-10 Apr-11
International prices for maize and soy US $ /ton Facts and Trends Source: FAO commodity prices, 2011
A Global Water Crisis• 2 billion people lack access• Demand is growing; freshwater is getting scarce• 70 % of total freshwater use is for agriculture
Climate Change •2007 IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C during the 21st century • The rate of warming over the last 50 years is almost double that over the last 100 years (0.13°C ± 0.03°C vs. 0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade)4th AR, IPCC 2007
Annual urban growth rate 1970-2000 2000-2010 2010-2030 2030-2050 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50Annual growth p.a. (%) 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 SSA LAC NENA S. Asia E. & SE. Asia Developed
Annual growth in per capita consumption of livestock products 2.50 2.00 1.50Annual growth rate (%) Bovine meat Ovine meat 1.00 Pig meat Poultry meat Milk 0.50 Eggs 0.00 Developing countries Developed countries -0.50 2006-2030 2030-2050 2006-2030 2030-2050
Relationship between animal protein consumption and income 120Per capita animal protein supply (gr/day) 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)
Land• By 2050, 33 % more people need to be fed• 70 % more meat and milk• Expansion of biofuels will continue• Uncertainties of climate change• Potential for agriculture expansion is limited
Livestock and Land Use• 26 % of global land is pasture• 12 % of global land is crop land, 1/3 thereof is for feed• Yield growth accounts for most of agric. production increases• Area expansion into forests, mainly in Latin America
Livestock and Water• Direct water use is small• Indirect water use and impact on water cycles is huge: – Water for feed production – Impact grazing on water quantity and water quality – Water pollution from livestock waste
Livestock and Climate Change Land use and land use change (deforestation and degradation) Nitrogen fertilizer production and use for feed Emissions from digestion Emissions from livestock waste Climate change to affect feed and water availability Pastures as a potential carbon sink
What solutions have been offered?• No problem, no solution required – denial, business as usual• Problems are local – technical fixes• Problems are substantial and systemic – policies needed• Problems are huge and can hardly be fixed – rein in growth• Problems are beyond control - vegetarianism
When it comes to accommodating sector growth,EFFICIENCY IS KEY
Intensification 12.00 Ethiopia 10.00 8.00CO2 eq/kg milk Kenya 6.00 Egypt 4.00 China Rwanda South Africa 2.00 Thailand 0.00 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 milk (kg/cow)
Variability means opportunities 25% 25% 50% 25% 26
So…• Despite higher input costs, sector growth will continue• Intensive production is more efficient and has lower emissions• Huge performance gaps within systems and across countries• Technical solutions are available but incentives need to be better aligned
Livestock is at the centre of most contemporary resource use issues (land, water, energy, nutrients, climate change) Demand for livestock products will likely continue to be strong Efficiency is key to reducing resource requirements and environmental impact and requires: ◦ Technology adoption and development need to accelerate ◦ Supporting policy frameworks ◦ Joint stakeholder action
….what this all means• making livestock more sustainable is both important and urgent: action is needed• “blame games” aren’t helpful: we need a constructive dialogue to build consensus• Resource use efficiency identified as the common ground and it indicates the direction of change
But what does sustainability actual mean?• Multi-functionality of agriculture – Livelihoods, food security, economic growth, environment, agro-industrial development, bio-fuels, convergence – ensure the supply of ‘public goods’• Interconnectedness of scales – International markets, climate change, (animal) disease outbreaks, increasing price volatility, unpredictable and non-linear change
• Diversity of approaches and experiences has led to atomisation and contending coalitions rather than coherence and collective learning and action.
Livestock sector sustainabilityInter– and Intra- generational equity
Finding common ground: Game changing opportunities– Closing the efficiency gap: Existing technology and institutional frameworks can generate large resource use efficiency, economic and social gains– Restoring value to grasslands: Payment for environmental services can connect people and production systems, raise productivity and enhance livelihoods– Reducing discharge: Recovery of nutrients and energy contained in manure can reduce nutrient overload and greenhouse gas emissions and reduce public health problems
Opportunities to build sustainability• Knowledge use capacities as a way of responding to change and as a new source of comparative advantage• Rapidly advancing technological frontier – New opportunities from public and private R&D• Collective intelligence – Collaboration of different sources of knowledge. Both necessary and now possible.
How to optimize the contribution of theseopportunities• Not just knowledge and technology inputs that are needed, but also the processes that make knowledge available and enable its use:• From high yielding technologies to high-yielding processes
How to optimize the contribution of theseopportunities (cont)• How to organise? – Strengthening interaction across the whole range of actors involved in the livestock sector to deal with known and unknown, predictable and unpredictable challenges and opportunities, now and in the future.• Addressing multiple agendas. – Finding ways of developing and adapting habits and practices that foster a capacity that integrates pro-poor, pro-environment, and pro-market agendas.• Stimulating change. – Finding ways to stimulate the institutional and policy changes needed to bring about the above.
Moving to a New Narrative• The livestock sector will grow but that growth will need to be “green”• The livestock sector offers great opportunities for better resource management and development• Social and health objectives can be aligned• We need to do this jointly – collective action