Global environmental challenges [and livestock]

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Presented by Henning Steinfeld of FAO at the ILRI-World Bank High Level Consultation on the Global Livestock Agenda by 2020, Nairobi, 12- 13 March 2012

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  • Regional differences in objectives and available methods/data
  • Global environmental challenges [and livestock]

    1. 1. Global Environmental Challenges Henning Steinfeld, FAOILRI-World Bank Consultation on the Global Livestock Agenda by 2020 Nairobi, 12 - 13 March 2012
    2. 2. Livestock demand and resource constraintsGlobal demand to grow by Growing scarcities and risks 70 to 80 % by 2050 • Growing scarcities - oil,• Stagnant in rich countries land, water, energy,• Still strong in emerging phosphorus countries • Environmental• Rapidly growing degradation and anywhere else (+200 % in pollution Africa) • Climate change
    3. 3. 150 200 250 50 100 0Apr-01Aug-01Dec-01Apr-02Aug-02Dec-02Apr-03Aug-03Dec-03Apr-04Aug-04Dec-04Apr-05Aug-05Dec-05Apr-06Aug-06Dec-06Apr-07Aug-07Dec-07Apr-08Aug-08 Commodity Price Index Monthly PriceDec-08Apr-09Aug-09Dec-09Apr-10 Commodity prices on the riseAug-10Dec-10 Apr-11
    4. 4. International prices for maize and soy US $ /ton Facts and Trends Source: FAO commodity prices, 2011
    5. 5. HUMAN-EDIBLE PROTEIN BALANCE IN THE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COUNTRIES EDIBLE PROTEIN OUTPUT/INPUT EDIBLE PROTEIN OUTPUT-INPUT TONNES AV. 1995-1997 AV.2005-2007 AV. 1995-1997 AV.2005-2007Saudi Arabia 0.15 0.19 -533 731 -659 588USA 0.48 0.53 -7 846 859 -7 650 830Germany 0.66 0.62 -921 449 -1 183 290China 0.75 0.95 -2 822 998 -665 276Netherlands 1.66 1.02 322 804 18 070Brazil 0.79 1.17 -622 177 550 402Nepal 2.25 1.88 37 370 40 803India 3.60 4.30 2 249 741 3 379 440Sudan 18.22 8.75 235 868 340 895New Zealand 8.04 10.06 460 366 638 015Mongolia 14.72 14.60 42 987 35 858Ethiopia 16.02 16.95 99 909 141 395Kenya 18.08 21.16 124 513 202 803
    6. 6. Point of DepartureThe livestock sector is resource-hungry• ~ 70 of total agricultural land, 35 % of all crop land• ~ 60 % of total anthropogenic biomass appropriation• ~ 29 % of agricultural water use• ~ 15 % of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (being re-calculated)Contributions:• 13 % of all dietary energy; 25 % of all dietary protein• 1.5 % of world GDP• livelihood component to 1 billion people
    7. 7. Point of Departure• The sector has specific resource issues – Low NRU efficiency – geographic dispersion (extensive systems) – geographic clustering (intensive systems)• Demand will continue to grow and needs to be accommodated within finite resources• Potential for social, health and economic gains needs to be seized• The need for connecting actors and for joint action
    8. 8. Why livestock? Specific resource use issues• Production of animal protein is typically less efficient than that of plant protein• Remoteness - areas often out of reach (neglect, expansion into forests, overgrazing)• Intensive systems are often detached from land base – nutrient depletion and overloads
    9. 9. Efficiency of Natural Resource Use• Conversion efficiency of land, water, nutrients, energy• (Partially) dependant on local resource endowment• Huge gaps in efficiency exist within and between countries• Knowledge/technology to substitute for natural resource use
    10. 10. Global non-CO2 emission intensities by commodity (tCO2eq/t protein)200180160140120100 80 60 40 20 0
    11. 11. Inter-country comparison of nitrogen use efficiency in dairy production (Share of ingested N found in milk and meat)40.035.030.025.020.015.010.0 5.0 0.0
    12. 12. Relationship between total greenhouse gas emissions and milk output per cow 12.00 10.00 kg CO2-eq. per kg FPCM 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
    13. 13. Closing the efficiency gap• Resource constraints have started to “bite” - high commodity prices induce innovation and drive technology• Productivity and efficiency gains move largely in parallel• Huge gaps between attainable and actually attained efficiency• Gaps can be narrowed with existing technology• Globally there is more gain from large numbers of producers catching up than from pushing the frontier• Prices need to reflect true scarcities of natural resources
    14. 14. Restoring value to grasslandsIssue: neglect of extensive grazingareas, their people and their potentialservices• improved range management can help store soil carbon: average 0.13 to 0.81 tCO2-e ha-1 yr-1 for moist and dry grasslands, respectively (IPCC, 2006)• strong synergies between productivity gains, climate change mitigation and adaptation and other environmental services
    15. 15. Degraded grasslandsSatellite derived map using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data from 1981 until 2003Methods to obtain this map: NDVI is converted to NPP (net primary productivity) and corrected by Rain-Use Efficiency (correct therainfall variability effect).the trend in time (1981-2003) defines improvements (higher NDVI) or decline of the vegetation Data: Bai et al. , 2008. FAO / UNEP LADA project
    16. 16. Soil organic carbon (somtc) difference; [grazing level with max NPP] - [grazing level closest to LADA NPP} Soil organic carbon (somtc) (gC m -2) 50 0 00 0 00 0 -0 5 00 -2 ,0 -5 -2 50 1, -1 < 0 0 -2 > 25 0 50This shows the technical potential for C sequestration (summed over thesimulation period 1961-2006). Estimated by subtracting max attainablesoil C levels (i.e. that could have been achieved if grazing levels wereoptimally managed) from simulated baseline soil C levels. Also,coverage is only for rangelands, not managed pastures
    17. 17. Restoring value to grasslands• Carbon finance and other PES can alter the production function of grasslands, particularly in marginal areas• Develop a “business case” for grasslands – multiple, global and local, environmental services• Certification methodologies are required• Institutional mechanisms for benefit sharing need to be developed
    18. 18. Towards zero discharge: Recovery of nutrients and energy from animal manureIssue: Discharge of animal manure into theenvironment caused by geographic concentration oflivestock• total amounts of nutrients in livestock excreta > synthetic fertilizers• 50 to 90 percent of nutrients contained in feed are excreted as manure, 30 % of energy• Technology exists to recover most of the energy (biogas) and nutrients (except N)• Policies to address spatial distribution of livestock are required
    19. 19. Globally-900,000,000 hogsEstimated distribution of industrialized produced pig populations. Livestock’s LongShadow, 2006
    20. 20. Pig Distribution in the USTotal 60,000,000 hogs Honeyman, Duffy, 2006. Iowa State Univ
    21. 21. Pigs in North Carolina• 9,800,000 hogs and pigs• 63% are grown in 5 of the 100 counties of the state• 45% are in 2 of the 100 counties of the state and are on the coastal plain
    22. 22. Towards zero discharge• Spatial policies (zoning) addressing land- livestock balances - create opportunities for nutrient recycling• Emission standards (voluntary, non- voluntary)• Waste management technology transfer and adaptation• Incentive policies (incl. CDM in developing countries)
    23. 23. The Global Agenda of Action in Support of SustainableLivestock Sector Development Programme of action and structure
    24. 24. Direction of ChangeImproving the efficiency of naturalresource useThree focus areas: 1. Closing the efficiency gap: catching up in technology adoption 2. Restore value to grasslands: supporting soil carbon, ecosystem health and productivity restoration with climate finance 3. Zero discharge: towards full recovery of nutrient and energy from animal manure
    25. 25. Closing the natural resource use efficiency gapWhat has changed: The natural resource constraint is increasinglyperceived by stakeholders
    26. 26. Closing the natural resource use efficiency gapWhat has changed: The natural resource constraint is increasinglyperceived by stakeholders Govern- Private Civil Science Inter Actions ments Sector Society Govern Org. mental Org. Measuring efficiency Partnership Assessing natural resource use efficiency gap and options to close the gap Develop PPPs and other models to foster innovation and technology transfer Promote investment programmes for efficiency improvementExpected result: More knowledge-intensive practices, with more efficientnatural resource use
    27. 27. Restoring value to grasslandsWhat has changed: Payment for Environmental Services and climate changefinance can reverse the neglect of grasslands and enhance productivity andincomes
    28. 28. Restoring value to grasslandsWhat has changed: Payment for Environmental Services and climate changefinance can reverse the neglect of grasslands and enhance productivity andincomes Actions Govern- Private Civil Science Inter ments Sector Society Govern Org. mental Org. Assessing and targeting the potential for carbon sequestration and synergies with food security and other env. services Developing Monitoring Reporting and Verification methodologies Piloting institutional and technical approaches Develop intergovernmental support for grasslands, e.g. within UNFCCCExpected result: Pastoralist adopt practices that provide environmentalservices and improve food security
    29. 29. Recovery of nutrient and energy from animal manureWhat has changed: Discharge of animal manure is less and less accepted
    30. 30. Recovery of nutrient and energy from animal manureWhat has changed: Discharge of animal manure is less and less accepted Actions Govern- Private Civil Science Inter ments Sector Society Govern Org. mental Org. Analyze the clustering trend and assess the constraints to the adoption of good manure management practices Develop regional networks that can provide assistance to policy makers Create opportunities for nutrient recycling and energy recovery Foster the development of PPPs and other models to foster technology transfer and farmers’ participationExpected result: Increased nutrient and energy recovery from manure,resulting in reduced pollution
    31. 31. The Agenda’s stakeholders• Governments• Private sector (branch organizations)• CSOs• Research and academia• Intergovernmental organizations (global, regional)• Smallholders/pastoralists not represented at global level (will be at operational level)
    32. 32. Implementation entities• Platform of all members• Advisory Group, composed of Focus Area Groups and Global Partners• Secretariat• Centers of excellence and ad hoc expert groups• Regional hubs, closer to stakeholders, along focus areas
    33. 33. What’s new?• The thematic focus – Offers strong synergies between economic gains and environmental impact reduction• The action-orientation (change in practice) – Built ona sense of urgency to put what we know into practice• Value added of the multi-stakeholder engagement – Convergence of interests and action will translate into change of practices
    34. 34. Implications for the social agenda• Climate change will hit resource-poor grazers more than any other group• Resource constraint hits the “middle ground” – less efficient, small scale, commercial production• Carbon finance could help transition: – Pastoralists to landscape managers – Intensification, particularly of dairy (methane)• “Zero discharge” may increase production cost of large-scale industrial production
    35. 35. Implications for Health Agenda• Climate change will change incidence and severity of animal diseases (particularly vector-borne)• Disease constraints to raising efficiency need to be lifted• “zero discharge” will alleviate public health challenges associated with pollution
    36. 36. …towards a new narrativePG Domain No growth Growth Problems of growthEnvironment Restore grasslands/ Efficiency/ sustainable Avoid pollution marginal lands intensificationSocial Protection of Income and Sustained prosperity livelihoods employmentNutrition Avoid starvation Enrich diets Avoid unhealthy dietsHealth Keep animals alive/ Remove constraints to Safe and healthy food, keep production production, Functional trade systems functional productivity, trade
    37. 37. Thank youhenning.steinfeld@fao.orgwww.livestockdialogue.ord

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