The State of Knowledge and Policy Efforts to Improve
Inventory Estimates and Mitigate Livestock GHG
Emissions in Africa
Claudia Arndt, PhD
Senior Scientist &
Team Lead of the Mazingira Centre
https://mazingira.ilri.org/
Pre-conference workshop on Reducing Enteric CH4 Emissions
from Sub-Saharan Africa at GGAA 2022 on 4 June at 8th
International Greenhouse Gas and Animal Agriculture
Conference, Orlando, Florida, USA, 5-9 June 2022

Share of Global Food System GHG Emissions
39%
17%
17%
10%
7%
7%
1%
Asia
Africa
Latin America
North America
Europe
Russia
Oceania
Asia, Africa, and Latin
America contribute 72% of
Food System GHG emissions

National GHG Emissions Associated with Food systems
Source: Crippa et al., 2021.
For most African countries >50% of the national
GHG emissions are associated to the Food System
33 million smallholder contribute ~70% of food supply in Africa

GHG Emissions From Livestock Value Chain in Africa
Africa
Source: Gleam, 2020
Global

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070
RED
MEAT
&
MILK
PROTEIN
(MT/YEAR)
POPULATION
(BILLION)
YEAR
EUROPE
+6.2%
Projected Population & Demand Growth
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070
RED
MEAT
&
MILK
PROTEIN
(MT/YEAR)
POPULATION
(BILLION)
YEAR
AFRICA
+3.9% +3.6%
+56%
+135%
+84%
+207%
MT: Million metric tons
Source: Modified after Henchion et al., 2021 and FAO.
Red meat & milk protein (g/capita/d)
2010 2030 2050
7.2 8.5 9.4
Red meat & milk protein (g/capita/d)
2010 2030 2050
28.6 30.3 30.4
+6.3%

National GHG Inventories
• A national GHG inventory is required under the UNFCCC
• Countries have to submit a national GHG inventory starting in 2024
• This is part of the Enhanced Transparency Framework to show that
countries are taking action to meet their NDCs under the Paris
Agreement
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions

Countries that Include Livestock in New & Updated NDCs
Source: Modified Rose et al., 2021 & https://ccafs.cgiar.org/index.php/resources/tools/agriculture-in-the-ndcs-
data-maps-2021
Out of 54 African countries:
• 16 countries include Mitigation & Adaptation measures
• 5 countries include livestock Mitigation measures
• 14 countries include Adaptation measures
• 9 countries include no livestock measures
• 10 countries include no new or updated NDCs
Adaptation addresses the impacts of climate change
Mitigation addresses the causes of climate change
Both approaches are needed in developing countries!

Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies in NDCs of African Countries
Source: Rose et al., 2021 and https://ccafs.cgiar.org/index.php/resources/tools/agriculture-in-the-ndcs-data-
maps-2021
-4%
-7%
-7%
-7%
-15%
-20%
-30% -20% -10% 0%
% of African Countries
Mitigation
19%
13%
9%
17%
6%
17%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
% of African Countries
Adaptation
Feed mgmt
Manure mgmt
Breed mgmt
Herd comp mgmt
Silvopastoralism
Animal health

National GHG Inventories – Approaches
Effects of Interventions CANNOT be quantified
Tier 1 Tier 2
Effects of Interventions CAN be quantified
Source: Modified GRA (n.d.) Livestock development and climate change
GHG GHG
Number of
animals
Number of
animals

Capacities to Track Changes in GHG Emissions Do Not Match NDC Ambitions
Tier 2 for at least
some livestock
Countries developing
Tier 2 for livestock
Countries with Tier 2 Inventory
for livestock
Countries with livestock mitigation
in their new or updated NDCs
Source:
Wilkes; personal communication.
Source: Rose et al., 2021 and
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/index.php/resources/to
ols/agriculture-in-the-ndcs-data-maps-2021

GHG Emission Estimates From Livestock in sub-Saharan Africa
– A Stock Take
All © Sonja Leitner
Source: Graham et al. submitted
Poster #93 Graham et al.

Estimates for Enteric CH4 Emissions From sub-Saharan Africa
Measurement Number of studies % of total studies
Cattle 14 70%
Direct 6 30%
Indirect 8 40%
Small Ruminants 6 30%
Direct 2 10%
Indirect 4 20%
Total 20
• Few studies on direct and indirect measurement
• Very little data on small ruminants

Enteric CH4 EFs for High Productive Cattle Systems
Compared To IPCC Defaults
Dairy Mat.
females
Mat.
males
Calves
Growing
Emission
factor
(kg
CH
4
animal
-1
year
-1
)
n = number of observations for
each species
n = 8
n = 5
n = 1 n = 5
n = 9

Enteric CH4 EFs for Low Productive Cattle Systems
Compared To IPCC Defaults
Mat.
females
Females
grazing
Calves
Draft
bulls
Bulls
grazing
Growing
Emission
factor
(kg
CH
4
animal
-1
year
-1
)
n = number of observations for
each species
n = 6
n = 18
n = 3
n = 3
n = 4
n = 7

Enteric CH4 EFs for Small Ruminants Compared to IPCC Defaults
n = 8 n = 10
Emission
factor
(kg
CH
4
animal
-1
year
-1
)
n = number of observations for
each species
2006 & 2019
Sheep Goat

Estimates for Manure GHG Emissions From sub-Saharan
Africa
• Few studies on direct measurements
• No indirect estimation
• No data on small ruminants
Measurement Number of studies % of total studies
Cattle direct 6 100%
Dung 1 17%
Urine 0 0%
Dung + Urine 5 83%
Small Ruminants 0 0%
Total 6

CH4 EFs for Manure Emissions Compared to IPCC Default
Solid storage
Manure deposited
(pasture, range and paddock)
Dry Lot
n = 8 n = 6 n = 1
Emission
factor
(kg
CH
4
animal
-1
year
-1
)
Emission
factor
(kg
CH
4
kg
VS
-1
)
Emission
factor
(kg
CH
4
kg
VS
-1
)
n = number of observations for each manure category and GHG used for mean ± 95% CI calculation

N2O EFs for Manure Emissions Compared to IPCC Default
n = number of observations for each manure category and GHG used for mean ± 95% CI calculation
Deposited Manure
(pasture, range and paddock)
Applied manure
(manure applied as organic fertilizer)
n = 12 n = 14
n = 0
n = 0
n = 52
n = 24

N2O EFs for Manure Emissions Compared to IPCC Default
n = number of observations for each manure category and GHG used for mean ± 95% CI calculation
Solid storage Dry Lot
n = 6 n = 2

Mitigation Challenge – Global Enteric CH4 Emissions
• Livestock enteric fermentation contributes
• 17% of global Food Systems GHG emissions
• 27% of anthropogenic CH4 emissions
• Global demand for red meat and milk is increasing
• CH4 is a short-lived climate pollutant
(12-year lifetime)
Mitigation strategies for enteric CH4 emissions are needed
Fig source: Global Methane Initiative (GMI).

Study Objectives
• Meta-analysis to determine mitigation strategies for enteric CH4
emissions that do not compromise animal performance or have
other unacceptable tradeoffs
• Estimated the potential of identified mitigation strategies to
contribute to the 1.5°C target by 2030 and 2050

Findings From the Meta-Analysis

Globally We Can Help Meet the 1.5 ° C Target by 2030 but Not 2050

High-Income Countries CAN Meet The 1.5 °C Target by 2030 & 2050

Low- & Middle-Income Countries UNLIKELY to Meet the 1.5 ° C
Target by 2030 or 2050

Takeaways
The State of Knowledge and Policy Efforts to Improve Inventory
GHG Estimates
• Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) contribute >70% of
Food System emissions
• Capacities to track changes in GHG emissions do not match NDC
ambitions
• Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies are needed for LMIC
• Research progress on GHG emissions from livestock fall short of
the ambitions for better inventories

Takeaways
The State of Knowledge to Improve Mitigate GHG Emissions
• There are effective strategies to reduce GHG emissions, but only
few are applicable to Africa
• Even with a 100% adoption of technical possible mitigation
strategies, Africa is unlikely to meet the 1.5°C target while high-
income countries could
Rapid action is needed in LMIC in the livestock sector to
help limit global warming to 1.5°C.

Thank you very much for
your attention!
Claudia Arndt, PhD
claudia.arndt@cgiar.org
Better lives through livestock
https://mazingira.ilri.org/