Scaling Agricultural
Innovation
Larry Cooley (Management Systems International and Global
Community of Practice on Scaling Development Outcomes)
ILRI Scaling Workshop, Nairobi, 12-13 September 2019

The true test -- Outcomes matching the size
of the need and sustained over time
2
NEED
0 100%Percent of Need Served

Businesses and Governments are designed to address scale and
sustainability
BUSINESS ADDRESSABLE MARKET
GOVERNMENT RELEVANT POPULATION
3

But many of us live in a donor project world where
accountability is complex and where the reward for
a good project is another project
4

Some additional context….
• Double, double, half, half
• 5%
• 15 years
• 1/7; 1/20

Net ODA received as % of central government expenses
6
Source: World Bank
Databank
43.5%
(1977)
- 0.08%
(2016)

Using research, projects and prototypes to achieve
scale requires (1) understanding what can make
the “S curve” go vertical, …
7

…(2) clarifying the link between short term
intervention and systems change, …
8

… (3) focusing more attention on the other “I”, …
9

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… and (4) re-thinking the use of applied research
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 Getting beyond the design, proof of concept, roll-out paradigm
 Begin with an eye on scale and a strategy for achieving it:
 Generating evidence for advocacy, simplification, and tailoring
 Involving and working through the intended large-scale, long-term implementers
 Focusing early on reducing unit cost and on implications for current providers
 Obsessing about the weakest link

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• Chapter 1: Designing Projects and Innovations with Scale in
Mind
• Chapter 2: Assessing Scalability
• Chapter 3: Using Commercial Markets to Drive Pro-Poor
Scaling
• Chapter 4: Financing the Transition to Scale
• Chapter 5: Creating an Enabling Environment for Scale –
Partnerships, Policy, Behavioral Change, and Institutions
• Chapter 6: Tailoring Metrics, Monitoring and Evaluation to
Support Sustainable Outcomes at Scale
• Chapter 7: The Critical Role of Intermediary and Donor
Organizations
• Chapter 8: Conclusions
• Chapter 9: An Invitation to Continue the Conversation
Scale Up Sourcebook

Frameworks for Addressing 3 Management Challenges:
(1) Planning with Scale in Mind, (2) Assessing Scalability
and (3) Managing the Scaling Process

New tools for assessing “scalability”
• Checklists, guidelines and scans
• 4 dimensions: characteristics of the intervention; characteristics of the
originating and adopting organizations; characteristics of the context; and
characteristics of the enabling environment

A 3 tier approach to metrics, monitoring and
evaluation
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• Tier 1: Proof of Concept – model articulation; evaluability
assessment; pilot testing; impact evaluation of “prototype”
• Tier 2: Refinement, Streamlining, and Scalability Assessment --
2nd stage pilots; assessment of robustness, cost-efficiency and
alternatives
• Tier 3: Change Management – monitoring implementation and
fidelity of scale-up; validation of efficacy at scale; continuous
improvement; coverage; sustainability

Insights and examples -- effective use of markets, creative
financing, catalytic changes in the enabling environment
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• Markets: Senegal high-yielding rice, PICS bags, Program for Africa’s Seed
Systems, Cereal System Mechanization for South Asia, One Acre Fund,
Babban Gona, Hello Tractor, BASF Mobile Clinic in Egypt
• Creative Financing: Traditional and index-based insurance, credit
guarantee funds, blended and structured finance, agricultural investment
funds
• Enabling Environment: Innovative partnerships, policy change, behavioral
change, institutional reform

Conclusions and recommendations
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1. There is no such thing as a fully “commercial” pathway to scale; government policies,
regulations and subsidies play central roles in scaling all agricultural interventions.
2. Successful commercial scaling requires forming partnerships that go well beyond the
traditional concept of “implementing partners” to include key value chain actors such as
equipment leasing, input provision, and product aggregation enterprises.
3. The most vexing bottlenecks for scaling of innovations are usually non-technological
in nature (e.g., access to market, enabling policies, seed systems, access to finance).
4. Poor farmers’ time horizons tend to be extremely short; they cannot afford a mistake
and tend to place a higher priority on minimizing risk than on maximizing reward.
5. Monopoly and/or monopsony are sometimes useful in the short run to build effective
and efficient supply chains, but often present challenges later.
6. Initiatives must go beyond being “policy takers” and play a much more active role in
facilitating policy change that can be a scaling multiplier.
7. There is rarely a straight line or a short journey from innovation to scale. Flexibility
and adaptive management are essential ingredients in all successful scaling efforts.

Rethinking the role of the CG institutions
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• Broadening the concept of “research“ to include more use of inter-disciplinary teams and
explicit attention to identifying and overcoming likely obstacles to scaling.
• Making greater allowance for bundling and unbundling intervention “packages”.
• Adopting performance metrics that include coverage and sustained adoption.
• Improving the “baton pass” from controlled to uncontrolled settings and accelerating the
engagement with government and commercial platforms.
• Helping to establish and to strengthen scaling intermediaries.

An invitation to join the conversation
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• The Sourcebook can be
downloaded at
https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/
scaleup/sourcebook/book/1/
• For more information or to
join the Community of
Practice on Scaling
Development Outcomes,
contact Larry Cooley at
lcooley@msi-inc.com.