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Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”<br />P. Ericksen, J. d...
Pastoralists and climate risk<br />OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens<br />
Current climate variability<br />Figure 1:  Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kaj...
Climate variability, Niger<br />
Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality<br />Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya<br />Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya<br />
Management strategies for climate risk<br />PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge<br />
Climate Change<br />Image of the Future<br />
GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B).  IPCC, 2007<br />
Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs <br />
Climate change exposure:  changes in rain per rainfall event<br />Ericksen et al, 2011<br />
Unpublished IRLI analysis<br />
East Africa:<br />Simulated plant funtional types:<br />(top) 20th century<br />(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one clim...
Implications for herds, livelihoods<br />
Thank you…  <br />Photo:  P. Little 2011<br />
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Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

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Presentation by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert to 'The Future of Pastoralism in Africa: International Conference to Debate Research Findings and Policy Options', Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011

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Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

  1. 1. Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”<br />P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert<br />THE FUTURE OF PASTORALISM IN AFRICA<br />International conference to debate research findings and policy options, Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011<br />
  2. 2. Pastoralists and climate risk<br />OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens<br />
  3. 3. Current climate variability<br />Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.<br />
  4. 4. Climate variability, Niger<br />
  5. 5. Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality<br />Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya<br />Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya<br />
  6. 6. Management strategies for climate risk<br />PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge<br />
  7. 7. Climate Change<br />Image of the Future<br />
  8. 8. GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007<br />
  9. 9. Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs <br />
  10. 10. Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event<br />Ericksen et al, 2011<br />
  11. 11.
  12. 12. Unpublished IRLI analysis<br />
  13. 13. East Africa:<br />Simulated plant funtional types:<br />(top) 20th century<br />(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)<br />Doherty et al 2009<br />
  14. 14. Implications for herds, livelihoods<br />
  15. 15. Thank you… <br />Photo: P. Little 2011<br />

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