Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

Editor's Notes

1. Points: explain NDVI; high variability; cyclical nature (ENSO); point out events.
2. Zermou much drier than Fakara; can also see droughts.IMPLICATIONS: high heterogeneity; soils also make difference
3. Points: Kajiado dynamicsLaikpia dynamics and reasons for possible difference
4. Mobility and markets, but host of other factors mediate.Also changing herd composition
5. Points: IPCC, GCM downscaling; three impacts: temperature, change in precip, more CO2.
6. Herd dynamics models: droughts every 5 years fine; every 3 drives density lower;Livelihoods: ?? Croppers to livestock keepers?How restricted are pastoral options?