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Towards successful, and sustainable, livestock futures worldwide

Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Borlaug Seminar Series on The Future of Worldwide Sustainable Livestock, Texas University, 3 March 2015

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Towards successful, and sustainable, livestock futures worldwide

  1. 1. Towards successful, and sustainable, livestock futures worldwide Borlaug distinguished lecture Texas A&M University, 3 March 2015 Jimmy Smith  Director General  ILRI
  2. 2. The global livestock sector: Changes ahead 40% of agricultural GDP and growing
  3. 3. 4of5highest valueglobal commodities arelivestock FAOSTAT 2014 (values for 2012) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Production(MT)millions Netproductionvalue(Int$)billion net production value (Int $) billion production (MT) Cow milk has overtaken rice Eggs have displaced maize
  4. 4. Per capita global kilocalorie availability from edible animal products Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)
  5. 5. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050 Millionmetrictonnes developing countries developed countries Hypothetical: If developing-country per capita consumption rate equalled that of developed countries
  6. 6. Milk demand and consumption levels differ in developed and developing countries 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2005/07 2050 Demand for milk million t/annum Developing Developed 0 50 100 150 200 250 2005/07 2050 Milk consumption kg/capita/annum Developed Developing
  7. 7. Rising demand for meat, milk and eggs is a global phenomenon . . . . . . but demand is greatest in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
  8. 8. FAO 2012Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030 Percentage growth in demand for livestock products: 2000−2030
  9. 9. Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050 From 2bn−3bn tonnes cereals each year From 664m−1bn tonnes dairy each year From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year
  10. 10. The global livestock sector: Opportunities and challenges
  11. 11. Opportunities: Why The demographics of demand and supply open new, unprecedented, opportunities: • To enable smallholders to continue to play central roles in food and nutritional security • To transform livelihoods and rural economies in developing countries • To make animal agriculture more environmentally sustainable
  12. 12. Opportunities: Who • 90% of animal products are produced & consumed in same country or region • Most are produced by smallholders • More than 70% of livestock products are sold informally • 500m smallholders produce 80% of developing-world food • 43% of the agricultural workforce is female
  13. 13. BMGF, FAO, ILRI Smallholders still dominate livestock production in many countries Region (definition of ‘smallholder’) % production by smallholder livestock farms Beef Chicken meat Sheep/goat meat Milk Pork Eggs East Africa (≤ 6 milking animals) 60-90 Bangladesh (< 3ha land) 65 77 78 65 77 India (< 2ha land) 75 92 92 69 71 Vietnam (small scale) 80 Philippines (backyard) 50 35
  14. 14. Opportunities: How This rising demand for animal-source foods will be met − one way or another We can meet that demand in economically viable, sustainable, equitable and healthy ways that also reduce poverty and hunger This requires proactive action
  15. 15. Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the only question is how Scenario #1 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock products Scenario #2 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock industrial production know-how Scenario #3 Meeting livestock demand by transforming smallholder livestock systems
  16. 16. Scenario #3 is good news for rural economic transformation Upsides of smallholder transformation • The coming livestock transitions and consolidations can help millions improve their food production as well as health, livelihoods and environments • Of the world’s 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, some: ﹣1/3 will find alternate livelihoods ﹣1/3 will succeed in the market ﹣1/3 could go either way
  17. 17. Responding: Livestock research for development
  18. 18. Trajectories of growth • ‘Strong growth’ – Intensifying and increasingly market oriented often transforming smallholder systems • ‘Fragile growth’ – Where remoteness, marginal land resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification • ‘High growth with externalities’ (industrial) – Intensified livestock systems with diverse challenges including the environment and human health
  19. 19. Trajectory ‘Strong growth’ Sector Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India − Pork in some regions Issues − Sustainable productivity - Market access and food safety − Zoonotic outbreaks Opportunities Novel approaches spanning sustainable productivity, markets, institutional and policy issues, risk analyses ‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response − Multiple endemic diseases − Zoonoses − Adaptive capacity − Movement controls Mostly public sector interventions, mitigating vulnerability, improving resilience ‘High growth with externalities’ Mostly monogastric − China for all commodities − Environmental - Drug resistance − Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics − Disease scares Modalities of operation with private sector largely established. Managing environment and health risks and consumer demand Distinguishing opportunities
  20. 20. Research for development solutions Food, equity, environment, health Policies, institutions and markets - Policy development - Foresight; trade - Livestock value chains Sustainable livestock systems - Sustainable intensification - Climate change: adaptation & mitigation - System resilience Feed resources - Conservation & use - Feed production - Feed utilization Animal genetics and breeding - Gene discovery - Genetic improvement - Breeding strategies - conservation Livestock – health - Vaccines & diagnostics - Zoonoses; food safety - Herd health
  21. 21. Greatest burden of zoonoses falls on one billion poor livestock keepers Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
  22. 22. 199 8 2007 African swine fever: Threatens $150-billion global pig industry Recent reports indicate ASF has moved into Belarus, Poland and Lithuania
  23. 23. Vaccines save lives of animals that both increase food security and reduce poverty ILVAC – a global vaccine initiative An body technologies Vaccine technologies Cellular technologies Diagnos c technologies Genomic technologies Contagiousbovine pleuropneumonia EastCoastfever Africanswinefever Consor a for research & product development and capacity development Private sector GALVmed CRPs NARS Inter-gov agencies Improved vaccines and diagnos c tools Pestedespesruminants RiValleyfever Infec ous disease research: basic & applied ILVAC – a vaccine pla orm
  24. 24. ECF Consortium: Improved vaccines to control lethal East Coast fever infections in cattle in Africa Annual meeting, Addis Ababa, 9-11th February 2015
  25. 25. African swine fever: TAMU-ILRI planned research for generating a subunit vaccine (funding still required) • TAMU developed two candidate multivalent vaccines • The vaccines are well tolerated by piglets & stimulate robust antibody & T-cell responses in the animals • Below left: The antibodies induced were shown to recognize the ASF virus Studies to determine protective value of the vaccines is pending (Funding) • Above right: Challenge with virulent Kenyan ASF virus to test vaccine efficacy will be performed in ILRI BSL2 pig unit using virulent Kenyan ASF virus isolated & characterized by ILRI
  26. 26. Food safety • 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same region • Over 70% of livestock products are sold ‘informally’ • There are major opportunities to ensure that milk, meat and eggs are safe for consumption (e.g. via risk assessments and risk- rather than rule-based regulations) • ‘Intensifying’ livestock production systems bring people and animals closer together, increasing the threat of zoonotic disease outbreaks and spread
  27. 27. ILRI–Texas collaboration: Exporting live cattle and shoats and animal products: Ethiopia (2008) • Risk from properly handled carcasses, meat and meat products is negligible • Risk from live cattle or shoats introducing pathogens of concern is important
  28. 28. LiveGene Delivering improved genetics to the world’s small-scale livestock keepers Targeting Gene Discovery Delivering Genetic Gains Prioritizing geography, environment, climate and social change, traits, species, breed. Adaptive alleles, characterization, conservation, Genome editing Digital recording platforms. Phenotyping and farmer feedback. Integrated data – comms, bio-repository, phenotyping, feedback, bioinformatics. Partnerships and networks Capacity Development
  29. 29. New tools allow us to look in new places for sources of variation – including wildlife Comparative gene network and sequence analysis allows us to ask new kinds of questions about genomes – eg “what is different about this (group of) species compared to all other “traditional” linkage mapping requires crosses – so initial discovery is limited to variants within a species Cow NDama KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSPLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Cow Boran KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Human KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCEREHSTVPWFVKQCIEAVEK Pig KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCERENSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Chicken KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHLVCEHENSTVPQFVRQCIKAVER Salmon KFISRRPSMKTLQEKGIIKDRVFGCHLLALCEREGTTVPKFVRQCVEAVEK
  30. 30. Genotype data is relatively cheap and easy to obtain: Phenotype data remains a challenge Can we skip a generation of technology? • Fast, light, cheap performance data harvesting. • Cheap sensors, mobile platforms, crowd sensing….. • Simultaneously providing management information to the farmer and performance data to the breeder.
  31. 31. Identify and deliver variants associated with adaptation Genotyping Phenotyping Adapted & productive livestock Genome editing Targeting Data systems Delivery systems
  32. 32. • 70% of production cost – FEED • 70% of feed – CROP RESIDUES • Potential huge demand for grain for MONOGASTRICS • Opportunities: – Improved crop residue quantity and quality – Improved use of crop residues with other feed resources – Balancing trade offs in biomass use – Use of sorghum and other alternates to maize for monogastrics Research-based livestock feed successes
  33. 33. Feed opportunities • Produce more and better quality – Crop varieties with improved residue quality/quantity – Forages • Better use available feed – Via processing (chopping) – Feed mixtures (rations) • Import feed into the system – From areas of surplus to deficit – Concentrates • Potential environmental ‘win-win’
  34. 34. ILRI–Texas collaborations in livestock and environment issues • Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Small-scale Irrigation - Exploring feed options • Use of systems models - Africa RISING - LIVES
  35. 35. • Research evidence for smallholder dairying included: ﹣Risk analysis of informal milk marketing ﹣Employment and income benefits for the poor • Business/market development links poor livestock producers and feed suppliers to more sophisticated input/output systems ﹣A dairy ‘hub’ approach has been widely adopted Research-based livestock market successes
  36. 36. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced Large livestock production inefficiencies in the developing world present an opportunity Herrero et al PNAS (in press)
  37. 37. GHG emissions to 2050 assuming developing countries do NOT improve their efficiencies 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2007 estimate 2050 estimate 2050 estimate if all at 0.5l/day GHG emissions GT CO2 eq per annum assuming developed country levels remain at 1.3 kg/CO2 eq per kg milk while developing countries remain at 7.5 kg/CO2 eq per kg milk developing developed
  38. 38. GHG emissions to 2050 assuming developing countries DO improve their efficiencies 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2007 estimate 2050 estimate 2050 estimate if all at 0.5l/day GHG emissions GT CO2 eq per annum assuming both developed and developing country levels are at 1.3 kg/CO2 eq per kg milk developing developed
  39. 39. Image credits Slide cover: (Left) Gond painting, 2012, by Kaushal Prasad Tekam (via Pinterest (Middle) Untitled, by Kalam Patua (via Asia Art Archive) (Right) Sacred cows, by Vidushini (via Novica) Slide #11: Sacred cows, by Vidushini (via Novica) Slide #12: Tingatinga painting (via Slide #14: Untitled, by Kalam Patua (via Asia Art Archive) Slide #16: Kalighat painting (via Pinterest)
  40. 40. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock Thank you!
  41. 41. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock