Carrying out scale-relevant collaborative research on drivers of changelessons and insight from SAfMA & other initiatives<...
The importance of a having a conceptual model<br />The MA conceptual model was simple, <br />but sufficient for the purpos...
Causality in systems with feedback<br />b<br />a<br />Which is cause, and which effect?<br />c<br />Tools you can use<br /...
Analysing the strength of the feedback can help
At what point was the external perturbation applied?</li></li></ul><li>Example of complex causality<br /><ul><li>In Zimbab...
Many factors were involved, including
Declining profitability of cattle and sheep ranching
Rising demand for hunting and ecotourism
Deteriorating on-farm security
Intergenerational lifestyle changes
The changes in legislation relating to ownership of wildlife actually followed rather than preceded these factors</li></ul...
Meta-analysisThe relative weights of the many causes of food insecurity<br />
Causality: Nutrition insecurityarguments from a knowledge of underlying processes<br />Source: Scholes RJ and R Biggs 2004...
Getting the relationships rightExample:How does biodiversity link to ecosystem services, and services to human wellbeing?<...
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2003) scheme<br />Human wellbeing<br />Material<br />needs<br />Good social relations...
The MA followup scheme<br />Source: Kinzig, Perrings and Scholes (submitted)<br />Human wellbeing<br />Freedom and choice<...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Carrying out scale-relevant collaborative research on drivers of change lessons and insight from SAFMA and other initiatives

883 views

Published on

A presentation prepared by Bob Scholes for the workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008.

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
883
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Carrying out scale-relevant collaborative research on drivers of change lessons and insight from SAFMA and other initiatives

  1. 1. Carrying out scale-relevant collaborative research on drivers of changelessons and insight from SAfMA & other initiatives<br />Bob Scholes, CSIR<br />bscholes@csir.co.za<br />Nairobi, 12 June 2008<br />
  2. 2. The importance of a having a conceptual model<br />The MA conceptual model was simple, <br />but sufficient for the purpose<br />In some respects, it was even arguably wrong<br />But it did provide a way of teasing out <br />proximal drivers, ultimate drivers, <br />feedback effects and interventions, and created<br />a framework in which both human sciences and<br />natural sciences could locate themselves<br />Source: MEA (2003) Ecosystem services and human well-being. Island Press<br />
  3. 3. Causality in systems with feedback<br />b<br />a<br />Which is cause, and which effect?<br />c<br />Tools you can use<br /><ul><li>Cause still precedes effect
  4. 4. Analysing the strength of the feedback can help
  5. 5. At what point was the external perturbation applied?</li></li></ul><li>Example of complex causality<br /><ul><li>In Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa, large areas of land formerly managed for cattle and sheep switched to wildlife, 1975 onward
  6. 6. Many factors were involved, including
  7. 7. Declining profitability of cattle and sheep ranching
  8. 8. Rising demand for hunting and ecotourism
  9. 9. Deteriorating on-farm security
  10. 10. Intergenerational lifestyle changes
  11. 11. The changes in legislation relating to ownership of wildlife actually followed rather than preceded these factors</li></ul>Source: Scholes et al (in prep)<br />
  12. 12. Meta-analysisThe relative weights of the many causes of food insecurity<br />
  13. 13. Causality: Nutrition insecurityarguments from a knowledge of underlying processes<br />Source: Scholes RJ and R Biggs 2004 Ecosystem services in southern Africa: a <br />Regional assessment. CSIR<br />
  14. 14. Getting the relationships rightExample:How does biodiversity link to ecosystem services, and services to human wellbeing?<br />Society<br />utilitarian<br />values<br />intrinsic<br />values<br />Biodiversity<br />The naïve view<br />
  15. 15. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2003) scheme<br />Human wellbeing<br />Material<br />needs<br />Good social relations<br />Health<br />Security<br />Freedom & choice<br />Indirect<br />drivers<br />Provisioning<br />Food, fibre, <br />water, wood<br />medicines<br />Supporting<br />Nutrient <br />Cycles, NPP<br />Regulating<br />Climate, <br />disease, <br />floods<br />Cultural<br />Aesthetics<br />Tourism<br />spiritual<br />Direct<br />Drivers<br />Climate change<br />Biodiversity<br />
  16. 16. The MA followup scheme<br />Source: Kinzig, Perrings and Scholes (submitted)<br />Human wellbeing<br />Freedom and choice<br />Security Material needs Health Social relations<br />insurance<br />value<br />market &<br />nonmarket<br />values<br />Provisioning<br />food, fibre, wood <br />water, air, genes,<br />medicines<br />Cultural<br />aesthetics, ethics<br />tourism & recreation<br />spiritual, sense of place<br /><br />Ecosystem services<br /><br /><br />Regulating<br />climate, floods, pests & disease<br />Supporting<br />Ecosystem processes, Habitat provision<br />functional<br />types<br />landscape<br />diversity<br />species<br />diversity<br />response<br />diversity<br />Biodiversity<br />interactions<br />
  17. 17. Multiscale<br />
  18. 18. Cross-scale<br />Direct drivers<br />Indirect drivers<br />Ecosystem<br />services<br />Human Wellbeing<br />Source: Carpenter et al 2006 Science 313 257-258<br />
  19. 19. ‘Right-scale’ or ‘multiscale’?<br /><ul><li>Matching scale of analysis to scale of process and scale of intervention is important
  20. 20. But, because of cross-scale interactions, there often is not a single ‘optimum’ scale
  21. 21. Rather than go for a ‘best compromise’, an integrated multiscale approach is recommended
  22. 22. Seldom needs to include more than 3 scales</li></li></ul><li>Sparse nesting as an efficient approach<br />Global Millennium Assessment<br />~35 others<br />
  23. 23. Engaging other knowledge systemsif they want to have an impact in the ‘evidence-based’ space they need to migrate to that quadrant, by being placed in the public domain, and subject to rules of evidence. This is their choice.<br />Apply rules: ie, test<br />document<br />Christo Fabricius, Bob Scholes and Georgina Cundill<br />Mobilising knowledge for ecosystem assessments<br />Proceedings of the ‘Bridging Scales and Epistemologies’ <br />Conference, Alexandria, Egypt, March 2004 <br />
  24. 24. Some observations on collaborative research<br /><ul><li>You must have an agreed conceptual framework, even if it is imperfect
  25. 25. The rules of engagement are
  26. 26. Work within the framework
  27. 27. Agree to share information ie explicit, formal quadrant
  28. 28. Have an institutional framework for resolving conflicts
  29. 29. A ‘stakeholder board’ and a ‘technical panel’
  30. 30. Pay attention to the ‘soft’ issues
  31. 31. Provide opportunities to bond as a team
  32. 32. Get the balance right between disciplines and personalities
  33. 33. Partnerships need to be quasi-equal if they are to work</li></li></ul><li>All the simple problems are done<br />

×