Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands

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Presented by Aidan Keane, ILRI, Nairobi, 16 August 2011


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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands

  1. 1. Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands Aidan Keane University College London, Institute of Zoology & International Livestock Research Institute 16 August 2011
  2. 2. <ul><li>Background </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rangelands as complex socio-economic systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policy, institutional and economic pressures… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… favouring privatisation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… and/or devolution of resource management </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concern about enclosure, loss of mobility, land degradation, poverty and biodiversity loss </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential existence of tipping points </li></ul></ul>Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands Background Objectives Framework Methods
  3. 3. <ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To develop a conceptual framework linking policy, land-use and livelihoods through pastoralist decision-making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To construct and validate models of pastoralist decision-making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To evaluate policy relevant scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To disseminate our findings to policy makers and communities </li></ul></ul>Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands Background Objectives Framework Methods
  4. 4. Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands Background Objectives Framework Methods
  5. 5. Homewood et al. (2009) “Staying Maasai” Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands Background Objectives Framework Methods
  6. 6. Homewood et al. (2009) “Staying Maasai” <ul><li>Southern Kenya/northern Tanzania </li></ul><ul><li>Northern Kenya/southern Ethiopia </li></ul><ul><li>Initial focus on the Maasai Mara </li></ul>Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands Background Objectives Framework Methods
  7. 7. <ul><li>Methods </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Statistical analysis of existing datasets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Modelling of household decision-making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Utility maximisation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Stochastic dynamic programming </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic interaction </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Experimental tests of decision models? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Agent-based simulation modelling for scenario exploration (e.g., payments for ecosystem services, climate change) </li></ul></ul>Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands Background Objectives Framework Methods

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