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Tanzanian Livestock Population
Baseline Assessment for Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis
Tanzania Livestock Master Plan T...
1 Objectives
To share with you TLMP development Technical
Advisory Committee members and Other invitees on;
• How the Base...
2 Background
• Major Livestock Trend: In general, there is a growing
demand for livestock and livestock products due to
in...
2 Background (Continued)
Why is LSA using Livestock Sector Investment
and Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) important?
– to develop a...
3 LSIPT: Brief Description of Methodology
 Integrated bio-economic simulation model with
two sub-components;
– Herd growt...
3 LSIPT: Methodology (Continued)
• Based on the two modeling, the tool calculates
Volume/Quantity of production and Value ...
4 The Data Sources used
• Survey and Census data
The integrated Living Standard Measurement Survey –
LSMS (National Panel...
5 Baseline Year
• The time ”2016” was selected as the
“Baseline year” for the Livestock Sector
Analysis (LSA) – it follows...
6 Establishing Baseline Livestock Population: Steps
• First, compute annual livestock population growth rates for differen...
6 Establishing Baseline … (Continued)
• Second, determine the most recent livestock population
figures to be projected for...
6 Establishing Baseline … (Continued)
• Third, project the livestock population for the baseline
population in 2016 by app...
6 Established Baseline (2016) Livestock Population
for Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis
Livestock
species
Projected base...
7 Comparison of Livestock Population
figures (MALF Vs Projected)
Livestock
species
MALF (Budget
Speech 2016/17)
Projected ...
8 Distribution of Livestock Keeping
Households by Production zones
Source: NPS, 2012
National Central (Cn) Coast & Lake
(C...
Asanteni !!!
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Tanzanian livestock population baseline assessment

Presented by Da Silva Mlau and Asfaw Negassa during the Tanzania Livestock Master Plan Technical Committee meeting at Colosseum Hotel, Dar es Salaam, 23 June 2016

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Tanzanian livestock population baseline assessment

  1. 1. Tanzanian Livestock Population Baseline Assessment for Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis Tanzania Livestock Master Plan Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Meeting Colosseum Hotel, Dar Es Salaam, 23rd June 2016 Da Silva Mlau (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Development) & Asfaw Negassa (ILRI) NOT FOR CITATION
  2. 2. 1 Objectives To share with you TLMP development Technical Advisory Committee members and Other invitees on; • How the Baseline livestock population to be used in Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis have been computed. • Comparison of Livestock Population figures (MALF Vs Projected Baseline) • Distribution of Livestock Keeping Households by Livestock Production Zones And, get your comments for Baseline Livestock Population assessment
  3. 3. 2 Background • Major Livestock Trend: In general, there is a growing demand for livestock and livestock products due to increase in income, population growth and urbanization • Important question: What is the extent of economic opportunity provided by this important livestock sector trend in terms of income growth, agribusinesses, and national economic growth? • Major Task: A need for rigorous livestock sector analysis to assess the size of economic opportunities and to inform government policies and programs to develop the livestock sector and its value chains in order to exploit the emerging market opportunities
  4. 4. 2 Background (Continued) Why is LSA using Livestock Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) important? – to develop and apply an analytical and empirical modeling framework which integrates herd/flock growth model with economic model for simulating baseline livestock production (meat, milk, eggs, draft power and manure) situations, and – to ex-ante assess the technical feasibility and financial profitability of alternative policy and investment intervention scenarios to improve the contribution of livestock to household and national economy in Tanzania.
  5. 5. 3 LSIPT: Brief Description of Methodology  Integrated bio-economic simulation model with two sub-components; – Herd growth modeling for representative livestock production systems over 15 years: determine biological responses given inputs used in the production process. (Technical parameters: Population, Off-take, Mortality, etc.) – Economic model—Multi-year partial enterprise budgeting approach used (valuation of inputs and outputs linked to herd/flock growth model) : (Financial parameters: feed costs, medical costs, prices of products, etc.),
  6. 6. 3 LSIPT: Methodology (Continued) • Based on the two modeling, the tool calculates Volume/Quantity of production and Value of production (GDP). • Required: Baseline livestock population data and technical and financial parameter values for baseline simulations and various intervention scenarios.
  7. 7. 4 The Data Sources used • Survey and Census data The integrated Living Standard Measurement Survey – LSMS (National Panel Survey-NPS) data (2010, 2012) Population and Housing Census – PHC (2012) conducted by NBS • The livestock demographic data (for example, fertility rates, mortality rates and offtake rates) collected from secondary sources and experts opinions. • The costs of production for different livestock from the expert interviews and market price data from literature and other secondary sources
  8. 8. 5 Baseline Year • The time ”2016” was selected as the “Baseline year” for the Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) – it follows Tanzanian Budget Year Need: Establish the baseline livestock population by projecting the livestock population from most recent and reliable official data sources
  9. 9. 6 Establishing Baseline Livestock Population: Steps • First, compute annual livestock population growth rates for different livestock species using livestock population data from the most recent two waves of NPS (2010 and 2012) as conducted by the NBS; – Population for each wave was estimated using appropriate sample design and weight – Annual compounded growth rate computed using two population data points as follows: – Where r is annual compound growth rate; X and Y are the population data for the 2010 (first wave) and 2012 (second wave), respectively and n is the number of years being elapsed between the two waves (n is equal to 2 in this case). 𝑟 = 𝑌 𝑋 1/𝑛 − 1
  10. 10. 6 Establishing Baseline … (Continued) • Second, determine the most recent livestock population figures to be projected for 2016 Combination of NPS (2012) and PHC (2012) were used based on collaborative discussion among NBS and TLMP team members Livestock species NPS 2012 Census 2012 Selected as Baseline (2012) Cattle 19,200,000 23,900,000 23,900,000 Goats 16,600,000 14,979,340 14,979,340 Sheep 5,628,592 4,390,227 4,390,227 Pig 1,415,380 - 1,415,380 Poultry 54,300,000 36,478,732 36,478,732 Donkey 507,409 - 507,409 Other 3,875,264 - 3,875,264
  11. 11. 6 Establishing Baseline … (Continued) • Third, project the livestock population for the baseline population in 2016 by applying the annual compounded growth rate obtained in step 1 to the livestock population data selected from the NPS and PHC conducted in 2012: 𝑃𝑜𝑝2016 = 𝑃𝑜𝑝2012 ∗ (1 + 𝑟)4 • Where r is annual compound growth rate computed; 𝑃𝑜𝑝2016 is the projected baseline livestock population in 2016 and 𝑃𝑜𝑝2012 is the baseline livestock population in 2012, selected either from NPS or PHC data. • The above is simple projection of an existing trend. However, the LSIPT uses population projection matrix which utilizes detailed livestock demographic information (age structure, birth and death rates) and offtakes
  12. 12. 6 Established Baseline (2016) Livestock Population for Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis Livestock species Projected baseline population (2016) Annual population growth rate (%) Cattle 28,435,825 4.7 Goats 16, 672,786 2.8 Sheep 5,012,098 3.5 Pig 1,851,317 7.7 Poultry 37,428,444 0.7 Donkey 572,357 3.2 Other 4,539,665 4.3
  13. 13. 7 Comparison of Livestock Population figures (MALF Vs Projected) Livestock species MALF (Budget Speech 2016/17) Projected baseline population (2016) + Commercial Population Difference Cattle 25,800,000 28,829,230 -3,029,230 Goats 17,100,000 16,672,786 427,214 Sheep 9,200,000 5,012,098 4,187,902 Pig 2,670,000 1,908,746 761,254 Poultry 76,500,000 71,928,444 4,571,556 Donkey - 572,357 - Other - 4,539,665 -
  14. 14. 8 Distribution of Livestock Keeping Households by Production zones Source: NPS, 2012 National Central (Cn) Coast & Lake (C&L) Highland (HL) 4,493,628 985,946 2,294,927 1,212,755 100% 22% 51% 27%
  15. 15. Asanteni !!!

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