Analysis of African Swine Fever epidemiology and pig value chains to underpin design of an ASF
risk management strategy on the Kenya‐Uganda border
Closing workshop of the BecA‐ILRI‐CSIRO‐AusAID project (2011‐13): Understanding
ASF epidemiology as a basis for control
2nd‐3rd October, 2013. Sarova PanAfric Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya
Project Presentation: Edward Okoth,ILRI
Project introduction:
development context and learnings

Understanding ASF epidemiology as a
basis for control
f
Introduction:
Development context and learnings
Development context and learnings
Dr Edward Okoth
Dr Edward Okoth
ILRI
Field study coordinator
African Swine Fever Epidemiology Project
African Swine Fever Epidemiology Project

Workshop presentations on
project learnings & implications
1) Introduction: development context and implications
2) ASF Virus genomics and diagnostics
3) ASF epidemiology in Kenya‐Uganda border study area
4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurity
4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurity
adoption
• E periences & learnings from ke research &
Experiences & learnings from key research &
development projects in Uganda
5) Day 2: Design for ASF prevention, detection and
response to realise potential for pork production and
marketing to contribute to food security

Introduction:
Development context and learnings
•
•
•
•
Pig sector value and growth; and smallholders
Pig sector value and growth; and smallholders
Why the Kenya‐Uganda border study region?
Study design
Key learnings for development outcomes:
Key learnings for development outcomes:
– Smallholder pig sector has a key role in food security
for poorest households
– pattern of ASF outbreaks
– ASF impacts
– Production risks and constraints
Production risks and constraints
• Ways forward: theory of change

Half the world’s meat comes from pigs
Pig numbers are growing in Africa,
Pig numbers are growing in Africa
from a low base
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
Nigeria
Uganda
6,000,000
Burkina Faso
5,000,000
Malawi
4,000,000
Angola
Cameroon
3,000,000
South Africa
2,000,000
2 000 000
1,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mozambique
Central African Republic
0
FEWSNET, African countries with >$1m pigs,

Smallholder pig sector is not well
accounted for in pig sector planning
• Value of pork traded in Kenya commercial pork
l
f
k d d
l
k
sector  1 billion K/shillings in 2005 (from Githigia 2010)
• Value of smallholder sector?? ?
• S llh ld
Smallholder sector:
t
– Free range or tethered pigs
– Low input systems
– Livelihood strategies: breed & sale of piglets; raise
Livelihood strategies: breed & sale of piglets; raise
weaners for sale; boar service; agistement

Farmers can get good income from pig keeping
One sow, average 10 piglets
x 3 farrowings/year
@ USD 12/piglet
= USD 360/year
= 1 year secondary school
fees
But in the Kenya‐Uganda border
B t in the Ken a Uganda border
region, 70% of farmers earnt less than
USD 100 from their pigs in 2012.
USD 100 from their pigs in 2012
ASF impacts are an important factor.
ASF impacts are an important factor

Kenya‐Uganda border region: important for
understanding ASF epidemiology in eastern Africa
d t di ASF id i l
i
t
Af i
• Indicated as a source for
outbreaks in other areas, e.g.
into commercial pig sector
near Nairobi
• This was confirmed by virus
genotyping, with spread of
ASF virus from Kenya‐Uganda
border to coastal Kenya, 2011
Kenya
• Opportunity to improve
Districts
understanding of ASF
g
with ASF
ith
transboundary epidemiology virus
Coast
Coast
outbreak
2011

Many smallholders in the region keep pigs
Many smallholders in the region keep pigs
• c30% of households
keep pigs
p pg
p g
• Low input pig keeping
• 1‐2 pigs per household
• localised value chains
value chains
• Commercial sector
underdeveloped
d d l
d
• Indications of gap
between supply &
demand for pork
Census Pig Density km2
0.5- 1.9
2-5
6-11
12-19
20-29
30-41
30 41
42-55
56-74
75 -85
100 -328
Infrastructure
Primary Road Route
Secondary Road Route
Kenya Uganda Border
(
!
Other Town
Major Town
Lake
Density of pigs
in Busia & Teso
Districts,
KENYA 2009
and Busia &
Tororo Districts,
UGANDA 2008
(census data)

Pig keeping is growing fast: many new pig‐keepers.
But it’s also dynamic:
But it’s also dynamic
many farmers move in and out of pig keeping
Continuity in Pig‐keeping since first started, by number
of households (N=608) and District in study region
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Discontinuous
Continuous
Busia_Ke
Kenya
Teso
Busia_Ug
B i U
Uganda
Tororo

70% of pig keeping farmers in the region have
cash incomes below MDG poverty line
Proportion of sampled households in each of three
Proportion of sampled households in each of three
income strata, by District in project study region
90%
Income strata
Household cash income
<$1.25/day
80%
70%
Household cash income
Household cash income
$1.25‐$5 /day
60%
50%
Household cash income
>$5/day
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Busia_Ke
Teso
Kenya
Busia_Ug
Tororo
Uganda
Household cash income is gross,
from estimates
provided by household
d db h
h ld
interviewees from all sources
including crops, remittances, off
farm work.
farm work.
Totals in USD

Research design:
starting point for integrating disciplines
starting point for integrating disciplines
Virus
TRANSMISSION
PATHWAYS
SOURCES
Carcasses
Undercooked meat
Swill
Feces
Slaughter waste
People
Pigs
Vehicles
Scavengers
Wildlife Reservoirs
Ticks (Vector)
What do people do that causes ASF
What do people do that causes ASF
to spread? Why?
What would it take for people to
What would it take for people to
behave differently?
Pig immune
system
Nutrition
Co‐infection load
Parasites
Vet services
ENVIRONMENT
Susceptible
Pig
Carrier
Pig
Immune
Pig
Infected Pig
Recovered Pig
R
d Pi
Dead
Pig

Research design:
framework for modeling ASF epidemiology
ASF epidemiology

Sampling design: study region
Sampling design: study region
• 32 villages randomly
selected in
randomised sub‐
locations/parishes
• c. 20 households per
village, randomly
selected
g
• 2 additional villages
sampled purposively,
p
post outbreak

Data from
1 Cross‐sectional survey
(680 pig keeping households,
inc 640 in randomised clusters,;
40 purposive post outbreak)
2 Longitudinal “sentinel pig”
study (117 pigs & pig keeping
households, randomised sub‐
,
sample of Cross‐section sample,
3xsample points@0,3.5,7 mths)
3 Pig value chain actors,
3 Pig value chain actors
(extended social network survey)
Pigs
People
When?
*
*
Blood
Serum
feces
Structured
survey
Kenya: July–Aug 12
Uganda: Sept ‐Nov 12
*
*
Blood serum
feces
Some tissue
(Oct13)
Structured
survey
Kenya: Sept 12‐
Mar 13
Uganda: Jan to June 13
g
*
*
Jan ‐June 13
Jan June 13
4 Farmer focus groups
(biosecurity knowledge,
capacity)
semi‐structured
interviews
*
Mar ‐June 13
5 Outbreaks
*
Opportunistic
6 Slaughter slabs
*
Aug‐Oct13
Blood, Tissue

Key learnings for development
outcomes

Pigs have a key role in food security for the
poorest households
th
h ld
Proportion of annual cash income of pig keeping households from pig
Proportion of annual cash income of pig keeping households from pig
keeping, by household income strata and District in project study region
100%
Income strata
90%
Household cash income
<$1.25/day
Household cash income
$1.25‐$5/day
Household cash income
>$5/day
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Busia_Ke
Busia Ke
Teso
Kenya
Busia_Ug
Busia Ug
Uganda
Tororo
Household cash income is gross and
is from estimates provided by
household interviewees from all
sources including crops, remittances,
sources including crops remittances
off farm work.
Pig income is from more detailed
inquiry about pig sales during 2012,
boar service & agistment income.
Totals in USD

Women participate quite equitably in pig
ownership and decisions and do most pig care
Gender roles in some aspects of pig keeping and
trading
70%
Female
60%
Male
M l
50%
Female & Male
together
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Decisions on
pig purchase
Ownership of
pigs
Care of pigs
14% of h d of
f heads f
sampled pig keeping
household heads are
female

ASF is a substantial cause of pig mortality
ASF is a substantial cause of pig mortality
Fate of pigs owned by surveyed households during 2012 and not
pg
y
y
g
on farm at time of survey, by age/gender of pigs
• 17% of pigs that
were on farm in 12
(N=696 pigs)
200
DIED
OTHER DISPOSAL
SOLD
SOLD
32
150
52
17
100
153
50
102
121
5
3
79
0
PIGLETS
SUB‐ADULTS
SOWS
67
BOARS
CASTRATED BOARS
months prior to
months prior to
household survey
died before sale or
other disposal.
p
• Interviewees
described clinical
signs that indicate
g
ASF in 50% deaths.
• 8.2% of
interviewees, across
interviewees, across
70% of sampled
villages, said they
had experienced ASF
p
outbreaks in 2012
and lost pigs.

‘Rolling outbreaks”: ASF affects just a few
households in a village at any one time
Outbreak data from 576 households
interviewed August – November
2012
Randomly sampled villages (N=32)
Location of household where
interviewee described an outbreak
that occurred during 2011 (all
months)

Disease, including ASF, is the biggest risk
perceived by farmers for pig‐keeping
60% of interviewees said
disease was biggest risk
to their investment in
pigs. Some specifically
mentioned ASF although
we did not prompt
farmers about ASF.
Risks to investment in pigs, by % of
factors mentioned by farm household
interviewees (N=683)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Poor farmer knowledge
about ASF helps to
explain why it is not
specifically mentioned
more often.
10%
0%

Half the farms that have had outbreaks
have had >1 outbreak
h
h d 1 tb k
Number of outbreaks on farm since pig keeping started by
% of households that have had 1 outbreak
(n=140 HHs that described outbreaks of 640 HHs sampled)
( 140 HH th t d
ib d tb k f 640 HH
l d)
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
46%
32%
14%
3%
1%
Not specified
1
2
3‐5
6‐10
5%
>10

Disease, including ASF, is the main reason
farmers have moved in and out of pig‐keeping
farmers have moved in and out of pig keeping
90
80
Reasons for discontinuity in pig keeping by
number of discontinuous pig‐keeping households (n=271)
by District
70
Various Other
Reasons
60
Financial
constraint
50
Feed constraint
F d
i
40
Disease
30
Conflict,
Sabotage
20
10
All died, disease
0
Busia_Ke
Teso
Kenya
Busia_Ug
Tororo
Uganda

Farmers have adapted their pig‐keeping to
di bl
lf d h
predictable seasonal food shortages.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
%hh food shortages for pigs
%hh food shortages for people
g
p p
Food shortages for pigs and
• Interviewees sell their pigs
people occur at the same time
when food is in short
each year.
h
supply
Farmer told us they sell pigs
• And buy a new piglet
when food is in short supply
when food is in short supply
either immediately, or
and buy a smaller pig
when food is again
immediately, or when food and
il bl
f
available on farm
piglets are again available

But adapting to ASF is difficult for farmers
because they can’t predict when ASF will strike
Farmer
focus group
about
biosecurity
Alupe
village,
Uganda,
2013

Alternate theories of change:
Alternate theories of change:
To realise th b
T
li the benefits of the pig sector for food
fit f th i
t f f d
security:
EITHER
1) all pig sector constraints need to be tackled together,
1) all pig sector constraints need to be tackled together
holistically
OR
2) Effective ASF prevention, detection and response will
2) Effective ASF prevention detection and response will
open up the space for pig value chain actors to
innovate in order to address other constraints
i
t i
d t dd
th
t i t

Workshop presentations on
Project learnings & implications
1) Introduction: development context and implications
2) ASF Virus genomics and diagnostics
3) ASF epidemiology in Kenya‐Uganda border study area
4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurity
4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurity
adoption
• E periences & learnings from ke research &
Experiences & learnings from key research &
development projects in Uganda
5) Day 2: Design for ASF prevention, detection and
response to realise potential for pork production and
marketing to contribute to food security