African
Livestock
Futures:
Realizing
the
poten9al
of
livestock
for
poverty
allevia9on,
food
security
and
the
environment
AU-­‐IBAR
–
17
SEPTEMBER
2014

2
Structure of the presentation
– Background
– Methods
– The models
– The scenarios
– Key findings
– Policy recommendations

– Study commissioned by the
Special Representative to the
UN Secretary General on
Food Security and Nutrition
(David Nabarro)
3
– Funding from USAID
Background

4
The authors
– Mario Herrero (CSIRO, Lead author)
– Petr Havlik, Amanda Palazzo and Hugo Valin (IIASA)
– John McIntire (ILRI)

– Berhe Tekola, Juan Lubroth and Henning Steinfeld (FAO)
– Kazuaki Megayishima (WHO)
– Bernard Vallat and Alain Dehove (OIE)
– Jimmy Smith (ILRI)
– Francois Legall (World Bank)
– Dennis Carroll, August Pabst and Joyce Turk (USAID)
– Sam Thevasagayam (BMGF)
– Siwa Msangi (IFPRI)
5
Steering committee and reviewers

6
The central questions
– How could we enhance the contribution of African
livestock systems to sustainably meet the future demand
for livestock products?
– What would be the consequences of different socio-economic
development scenarios?
– Can competitiveness be increased?
– What would be the risks?
– What would be key policies?

Methods

GLOBIOM:
Global
Biosphere
Management
Model
Par9al
equilibrium
model:
Agriculture,
Forestry,
Bioenergy
DEMAND
SUPPLY
8

Shared
Socio-­‐Economic
Pathways
Scenarios
Presenta3on
39
|
tle
|
Presenter
name

SSP
scenarios:
the
basics

Some
key
inputs

Presenta3on
312
|
tle
|
Presenter
name

Presenta3on
313
|
tle
|
Presenter
name

Presenta3on
314
|
tle
|
Presenter
name

Presenta3on
315
|
tle
|
Presenter
name

Key
findings

Milk
consump3on
likely
to
triple
in
East
Africa
Overall,
poultry
consump3on
exhibits
the
highest
rates
of
growth
throughout
SSA

Presenta3on
318
|
tle
|
Presenter
name
Milk
consump3on
likely
to
triple
in
East
Africa
Overall,
poultry
consump3on
exhibits
the
highest
rates
of
growth
throughout
SSA
The
consump3on
of
meat
from
monogastrics
will
exceeed
red
meat
consump3on
by
2030
in
most
sub-­‐regions
of
SSA

Dietary
shiTs
in
full
swing!
19
|

Presenta3on
320
|
tle
|
Presenter
name
Sustainable
intensifica3on
will
be
key
to
elicit
a
produc3on
response
in
most
regions…

21
Rates of growth of livestock production
– Sustainable intensification (SSP1): > 5-6%/yr
– Business as usual (SSP2): 2-3%/yr
– Fragmentation scenario: 1.5-2.5%yr
– Almost similar numbers of animals
– Largest differences explained by increases in yield

Presenta3on
322
|
tle
|
Presenter
name

23
|

24
What does this really mean?
Kenyan milk yield average: 600 kg/lactation
In 20 years at 6%/yr growth rate: 1815 kg/lactation
We need to triple milk yields to be in the game!
The same applies to monogastrics! = most growth coming
from larger operations

25
|

26
|

27
|

28
|

29
|

Policy
recommenda3ons

31
Policy recommendations
– Invest in the sustainable intensification of African
livestock systems (need to achieve rates of annual growth
in productivity of around 6% per year)
– Towards an economic incentives package?
– Interest free credit
– Reduced taxes on inputs
– Preferential conditions of investment for certain types of systems
– Some scope to increase intensive monogastric
production

Policy recommendations
– Invest in the provision of feeds (feed markets, improved
32
pasture species, etc)
– Invest in land use planning
– Regulate externalities of intensification
– Protect smallholders and pastoralists: they can
contribute!
– Invest in animal health research
– Reduce environmental impacts

Africa’s
challenges
are
daun9ng
but
there
are
posi9ve
signs
of
innova9on
....
• Of
the
20
countries
worldwide
that
had
more
than
10%
of
adults
using
mobile
phone
banking,
15
were
in
Africa
.
• In
Kenya,
68%
of
adults
used
mobile
banking
in
2011
Presenta3on
3tle
|
Presenter
name
|
Page
33
§ hTp://www.economist.com/node/21553510

Innova3on
comes
in
surprising
ways
• Sustainably
building
African
ins3tu3ons
and
science
capability
is
the
main
game

Thank
you
Mario
Herrero
Chief
Research
Scien3st
Agriculture
Flagship
e
mario.herrero@csiro.au