Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

African livestock futures: Realizing the potential of livestock for poverty alleviation, food security and the environment

771 views

Published on

Presented by Mario Herrero (CSIRO) at an ILRI Livestock Systems and Environment seminar in Nairobi 18 September 2014.

Published in: Science
  • Be the first to comment

African livestock futures: Realizing the potential of livestock for poverty alleviation, food security and the environment

  1. 1. African Livestock Futures: Realizing the poten9al of livestock for poverty allevia9on, food security and the environment AU-­‐IBAR – 17 SEPTEMBER 2014
  2. 2. 2 Structure of the presentation – Background – Methods – The models – The scenarios – Key findings – Policy recommendations
  3. 3. – Study commissioned by the Special Representative to the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition (David Nabarro) 3 – Funding from USAID Background
  4. 4. 4 The authors – Mario Herrero (CSIRO, Lead author) – Petr Havlik, Amanda Palazzo and Hugo Valin (IIASA) – John McIntire (ILRI)
  5. 5. – Berhe Tekola, Juan Lubroth and Henning Steinfeld (FAO) – Kazuaki Megayishima (WHO) – Bernard Vallat and Alain Dehove (OIE) – Jimmy Smith (ILRI) – Francois Legall (World Bank) – Dennis Carroll, August Pabst and Joyce Turk (USAID) – Sam Thevasagayam (BMGF) – Siwa Msangi (IFPRI) 5 Steering committee and reviewers
  6. 6. 6 The central questions – How could we enhance the contribution of African livestock systems to sustainably meet the future demand for livestock products? – What would be the consequences of different socio-economic development scenarios? – Can competitiveness be increased? – What would be the risks? – What would be key policies?
  7. 7. Methods
  8. 8. GLOBIOM: Global Biosphere Management Model Par9al equilibrium model: Agriculture, Forestry, Bioenergy DEMAND SUPPLY 8
  9. 9. Shared Socio-­‐Economic Pathways Scenarios Presenta3on 39 | tle | Presenter name
  10. 10. SSP scenarios: the basics
  11. 11. Some key inputs
  12. 12. Presenta3on 312 | tle | Presenter name
  13. 13. Presenta3on 313 | tle | Presenter name
  14. 14. Presenta3on 314 | tle | Presenter name
  15. 15. Presenta3on 315 | tle | Presenter name
  16. 16. Key findings
  17. 17. Milk consump3on likely to triple in East Africa Overall, poultry consump3on exhibits the highest rates of growth throughout SSA
  18. 18. Presenta3on 318 | tle | Presenter name Milk consump3on likely to triple in East Africa Overall, poultry consump3on exhibits the highest rates of growth throughout SSA The consump3on of meat from monogastrics will exceeed red meat consump3on by 2030 in most sub-­‐regions of SSA
  19. 19. Dietary shiTs in full swing! 19 |
  20. 20. Presenta3on 320 | tle | Presenter name Sustainable intensifica3on will be key to elicit a produc3on response in most regions…
  21. 21. 21 Rates of growth of livestock production – Sustainable intensification (SSP1): > 5-6%/yr – Business as usual (SSP2): 2-3%/yr – Fragmentation scenario: 1.5-2.5%yr – Almost similar numbers of animals – Largest differences explained by increases in yield
  22. 22. Presenta3on 322 | tle | Presenter name
  23. 23. 23 |
  24. 24. 24 What does this really mean? Kenyan milk yield average: 600 kg/lactation In 20 years at 6%/yr growth rate: 1815 kg/lactation We need to triple milk yields to be in the game! The same applies to monogastrics! = most growth coming from larger operations
  25. 25. 25 |
  26. 26. 26 |
  27. 27. 27 |
  28. 28. 28 |
  29. 29. 29 |
  30. 30. Policy recommenda3ons
  31. 31. 31 Policy recommendations – Invest in the sustainable intensification of African livestock systems (need to achieve rates of annual growth in productivity of around 6% per year) – Towards an economic incentives package? – Interest free credit – Reduced taxes on inputs – Preferential conditions of investment for certain types of systems – Some scope to increase intensive monogastric production
  32. 32. Policy recommendations – Invest in the provision of feeds (feed markets, improved 32 pasture species, etc) – Invest in land use planning – Regulate externalities of intensification – Protect smallholders and pastoralists: they can contribute! – Invest in animal health research – Reduce environmental impacts
  33. 33. Africa’s challenges are daun9ng but there are posi9ve signs of innova9on .... • Of the 20 countries worldwide that had more than 10% of adults using mobile phone banking, 15 were in Africa . • In Kenya, 68% of adults used mobile banking in 2011 Presenta3on 3tle | Presenter name | Page 33 § hTp://www.economist.com/node/21553510
  34. 34. Innova3on comes in surprising ways • Sustainably building African ins3tu3ons and science capability is the main game
  35. 35. Thank you Mario Herrero Chief Research Scien3st Agriculture Flagship e mario.herrero@csiro.au

×