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The global livestock agenda: Opportunities and challenges

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The global livestock agenda: Opportunities and challenges

  1. 1. The global livestock agenda Opportunities and challenges Jimmy Smith 15th AAAP Animal Science Congress, Bangkok,Thailand 26-30 November 2012
  2. 2. Overview  The global livestock sector • Magnitude • Diversity • Dynamic • Important for global development challenges  Trends in the global livestock sector • Consumption • Food production • Trade Livestock and the environment Livestock and livelihoods Livestock and health/nutrition
  3. 3. The global livestock sector
  4. 4. The global livestock sector  17 billion domestic animals  Asset value $1.4 trillion  Employs 1.3 billion people  Uses one third of the earth’s ice free surface 4
  5. 5. Four out of the five highest value global commodities are livestock
  6. 6. Livestock contribution to AgGDP Livestock GDP 5.6% 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 4.0% 4.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 6 (Figures in bars are annual growth rates) FAO, 2012
  7. 7. Diversity in the livestock sector  From…..  To…..  Few animals  00,000s of animals  Multiple functions  Rapid, regular turn over  Sales – at times of need  Only for income  Risk mitigation 7
  8. 8. Growth scenarios for livestock systems  ‘Strong growth’ – Where good market access and increasing productivity provide opportunities for continued smallholder participation.  ‘Fragile growth’ – Where remoteness, marginal land resources or agro-climatic vulnerability restrict intensification.  ‘High growth with externalities’ – Fast changing livestock systems potentially damaging the environment and human health  Different research and development challenges for poverty, food security, health and nutrition, environment
  9. 9. Livestock and global development challenges  Feeding the World – Livestock provide 58 million tonnes of protein annually and 17% of the global kilocalories.  Removing poverty – Almost 1 billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods  Managing the environment – Livestock contribute 14 -18% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions; use 30% of the freshwater used for agriculture and 30% of the ice free land – Transition of livestock systems – huge opportunity to impact on future environment  Improving human health – Zoonoses and contaminated animal source foods – Malnutrition and obesity 9
  10. 10. Animal source foods and global diets 10 FAO, 2012
  11. 11. Livestock growth and GDP 11
  12. 12. Consumption and production
  13. 13. % growth in demand for livestock products 2000 - 2030 13 FAO, 2012
  14. 14. Consumption - drivers  Population: Rising to 9-10 billion  Incomes  Urbanization – Since 2008 more people in urban  Supermarkets than rural areas  Trade – Two thirds urban anticipated by 2050 14
  15. 15. Supermarkets or informal sector?  ‘Supermarket revolution’ took off in 1990s  Increases in market share vary around the world  General features • Impacts the rich first • Vertical integration of food markets • Threat to smallholder participation  Effects not same for all products • First in processed foods (flour, oil, condiments) • Last in fresh foods (meat, dairy, fruits and veg) Informal milk market ILRI/Mann 80% in India
  16. 16. Growing trade in livestock commodities– with impacts also at local level FAO: SOFA 2009
  17. 17. Food production: From where? Herrero et al. 2009
  18. 18. Food production: By whom?  Today: 50 – 75% of livestock production in Africa and Asia from small farms (less than 2ha; 2 TLU)  Future: Small or large farms?  Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment)  Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor  Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour  Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?  Smallholder sector fragmented: What actors are needed to support it?  Trajectory of change?
  19. 19. Livestock and the environment 19
  20. 20. Climate change What will happen to feed resources? diseases? productivity? Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050 Courtesy of Andy Jarvis
  21. 21. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kg of animal protein produced Large inefficiencies in the developing world– an opportunity? Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
  22. 22. Production efficiency – developed countries Feed, breed, health = 4 fold milk increase 22 Capper et al., 2009
  23. 23. Estimated GHG emissions per kg of FPCM at farm gate, averaged by main regions and the world 23 FAO, 2010
  24. 24. Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods  Use of biomass– for soil or feed (or fuel)  Reduction of animal numbers– implications for livelihoods  Producing with smaller environmental footprint
  25. 25. Livestock and livelihoods  Livestock production and marketing are essential for the livelihoods of almost 1 billion  Two-thirds are women  1.3 billion people employed in livestock value chains globally 25
  26. 26. Role of animals Multiple  Comparing cattle systems in Kenya, Zambia and Sri Lanka: – Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping came from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing – Insurance: – Financing:  Livestock - an inflation-proof savings/investment  Manure, traction, social 26 ILRI/Mann
  27. 27. Livestock and human health 27
  28. 28. Livestock and human disease # ## # ## # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # • Animal-source foods are the # # # ###### # ### ### ###### # Disease s # ### # # ## ### # # # # # ## ### # # # Anthrax ## ## # # # # # # # Av ian Influe nza # # # # # ## # # # # # Botulis m ## biggest contributor to food- # # # # # Bovine TB Brucellosis C. difficile Cryptos por idium borne diseases. # # # # Diarrhea # # # Dysentery # # # # # # Foodborne Illness # # # # # # # Gastr oenteritis # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Le ptospirosis • # # # # # Salm one lla Diseases transmitted from # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # Trichinosis # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # Waterborne Illne ss # # # # # # # # livestock and livestock # # ## # # # # # # # ## # ## # # # # # ## ## # ## # # # # # ## ## # # # # # ### # # # # ### # # # # # ## # # ## products Population D ens ity (person per sq km) 0-5 5 - 10 # # # # # # # 10 - 25 kill more people each year # 25 - 50 # # # # # # 50 - 100 # # # 100 - 250 # # # 250 - 500 # # # ## # # # # ## # # than HIV or malaria. 500 - 1000 1000 - 2500 2500 - 5000 # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # ## # # ## # # # ## 5000 - 10000 # # N • # 100000 - 250000 # # # One new human disease # # # # 25000 - 50000 # # # 50000 - 100000 # # # # # emerges every 2 months and ## 2000 0 2000 4000 Kilometers 20% of these come from livestock.
  29. 29. To eat or not to eat . . . meat, milk and fish 1 billion 2 billion undernourished overweight
  30. 30. Research challenges and opportunities
  31. 31. Informing the global research agenda Biophysical research • Addressing productivity (feed-breed-health) • Enhancing efficient animal production – environmental issues • Addressing and informing livestock-human nutrition • Disease challenges • Practical environmental solutions Institutional • Incentives and institutional arrangements for environmental stewardship – payment for ecosystem services • Market and service provision models • Business enterprise models • Evidence to guide public and private sector roles and investments in livestock Livestock systems transition • An opportunity to address future food needs • Diversity of starting points and solutions • Research-for-development to address transition: – Environmentally, socially, economically equitable and sustainable - INCLUSIVE
  32. 32. ….research that enhances understanding and targeting options and provides biophysical and institutional solutions must be combined to enhance the transition of today’s smallholder livestock farms through inclusive growth to be a vibrant part of the food, poverty alleviation, environmental and health solutions for the future…………. 32
  33. 33. better lives through livestock ilri.org The presentation has a Creative Commons license. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

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