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22May2017 - If young people ruled the world...DEBATE

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An ILC-UK Partners Programme Debate: If young people ruled the world?... Maximising the voice of younger people in an ageing society
Economics of Age,Equality and Human Rights,Future of Age,Intergenerational
Wednesday, 22nd May 2017; 08:30 (for 09:00) - 11:00, Great Hall, Chartered Insurance Institute, 20 Aldermanbury, London EC2V 7HY, Chair by Baroness Sally Greengross OBE

Published in: News & Politics
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22May2017 - If young people ruled the world...DEBATE

  1. 1. If young people ruled the world? ...Maximising the voice of younger people in an ageing society An ILC-UK Partners Programme Debate Monday 22nd May 2017 This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote
  2. 2. Welcome from ILC-UK Baroness Sally Greengross Chief Executive ILC-UK This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote
  3. 3. Dr James Sloam Reader in Politics and International Relations Royal Holloway, University of London How can we improve the political participation of younger people? This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote
  4. 4. Q&A
  5. 5. Dean Hochlaf Assistant Economist ILC-UK ILC-UK Analysis This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote
  6. 6. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Dean Hochlaf, Assistant Economist, ILC-UK follow us on twitter: @ilcuk @bjafranklin @dhochlaf Disengagement, Democracy and Demographics How demographic change silenced the voice of a generation
  7. 7. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Are the young disengaged?  18-24 year olds are more likely than any other group to report low levels of knowledge concerning politics.  18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds are the two groups least likely to feel getting involved in politics is effective. (Apostolova et al. 2017)  Mycock and Tonge (2012) note “many young people feel they are uniquely isolated” from a “self serving political system”.  77% of those between 18-34 educated to degree level were registered to vote in December 2015. Only 57% without a qualification were registered.  Only 43% of those between 20-24 voted in 2015. 78% of those above 65 voted (IpsosMORI).  Even an issue like Brexit – where young people predominantly voted to remain – saw turnout levels lower than older groups.
  8. 8. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. General Election voting trends Source: British Election Studies Information System 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1964 1966 1970 1974-Feb 1974-Oct 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 % Voter turnout since 1964 Under 35 35-54 55 and over
  9. 9. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Voting across generations Source: Ipsos MORI –How Britain voted since 1974 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Oct-74 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 % 18-24 voting preference Conservative Labour Liberal
  10. 10. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Oct-74 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 % 25-34 voting preference Conservative Labour Liberal Source: Ipsos MORI –How Britain voted since 1974
  11. 11. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 % 65+ voting preference Conservative Labour Liberal Source: Ipsos MORI –How Britain voted since 1974
  12. 12. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Can the young win a General Election?  To test the extent of electoral power among the young, we looked at the 2015 election.  Using data on constituency population, voter preference and the results of the 2015 election in England and Wales, we looked at what would happen if the turnout rate of the young matched the over-65s and their votes reflected the national trend by age.  We found that this only would have made a difference in 11 constituencies – 9 Conservative and 2 Liberal Democrat seats would have swung to Labour
  13. 13. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Swing seats  Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport  Derby North  Croydon Central  Gower  Brighton Kemptown  Thurrock  Vale of Clwyd  Morley and Outwood (Ed Ball’s seat)  Bury North  Leeds North West  Sheffield, Hallam (Nick Clegg’s seat)
  14. 14. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Old age unity 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Con Lab LD UKIP Green Oth %ofvoters Voter preference - 2015 General Election 18-24 25-34 65+ Source: Ipsos MORI –How Britain voted in 2015
  15. 15. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Outnumbered 15.53% 19.37% 65.10% Majority age group by constituency 18-34 34-55 55+ Source: ONS and author’s calculations
  16. 16. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. What about Brexit  Applying the same methodology, we looked at the EU referendum.  With a binary choice and the election not determined by geographic location, we might expect young people to have more of an impact.  Young people were more united as well: – 75% of people between 18-24 year olds voted remain. – 60% of people between 25-34 year olds voted remain.  In contrast, 63% of over 75s voted to Leave, while 66% of those between 65-74 voted to Leave.  Would the young turnout have changed the result
  17. 17. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. The EU Referendum – before and after 47.87% 52.13% Before Remain Leave 49.6350.37 After Remain Leave Source: Ipsos Mori, ONS and author’s calculations
  18. 18. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. but when we consider Scotland and Wales 50.5349.47 EU Referendum results with higher youth turnout Remain Leave Source: BBC, EU Referendum Results and previous slides analysis
  19. 19. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Potential issues  Young people are not homogenous. If young people are already opting not to vote, they might not necessarily cast their ballots for mainstream parties.  While the number of people over 65 is set to rise considerably over the next few decades (almost 70% by 2050 according to the ONS), the number of younger people is expected to drop. This will further weaken the voice of the young.  If young people persistently feel that their vote isn’t electing their first choice, they may become even more despondent.
  20. 20. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Concluding remarks  Democracy doesn’t stop when you leave the voting booth, the issue here is one of engagement.  With an ageing society, more and more pressure is going to be put on public resources.  Electoral reform is one possibility to help amplify the voice of the young, but there are other means to increasing influence.  Voting remains crucial, but developing a compelling, coherent and comprehensive argument for putting the issues of young people on to the agenda of government will be equally important.
  21. 21. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Many thanks Dean Hochlaf International Longevity Centre - UK 02073400440 Twitter: @ilcuk @dhochlaf
  22. 22. Abby Tomlinson Host of Westminster Abby and Co-Founder of the Milifandom A young person’s response This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote
  23. 23. Q&A
  24. 24. Dr Jennie Bristow Senior Lecturer in Sociology Canterbury Christ Church University Is the voice of younger people too quiet or older people too loud? This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote Andrew Harrop General Secretary Fabian Society
  25. 25. A professional body perspective Laurence Baxter Head of Policy and Public Affairs CII This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote
  26. 26. Debate with Audience
  27. 27. Discussion close Baroness Sally Greengross Chief Executive ILC-UK This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote
  28. 28. If young people ruled the world? ...Maximising the voice of younger people in an ageing society An ILC-UK Partners Programme Debate Monday 22nd May 2017 This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme Twitter #youthvote
  29. 29. SAVE THE DATE The Future of Ageing Conference London, 29th November 2017

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