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www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight
Quantitative modeling to inform decision mak...
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight
Quantitative modeling to inform decision making
in the CGIAR and its partners
Keith W...
Outline
• Introduce the Global Futures & Strategic Foresight
(GFSF) program
• Share some recent projections from the IMPAC...
Selected drivers of change
• Today, this season, this year
• Weather, pests, markets, conflict, migration…
• Medium term
•...
Socioeconomic and climate drivers
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs)
Representative
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
Source...
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight
1. Improved tools for biophysical and
economic modeling
2. Stronger community of prac...
1. Improved modeling tools
• Complete recoding of IMPACT v3
• Disaggregation geographically
and by commodity
• Improved wa...
2. Stronger community of
practice
• All 15 CGIAR centers now
participate in GFSF
• Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP,
ICARDA, ...
• Role of agricultural
technologies
• Africa regional reports
• Analyses by CGIAR
centers
• CCAFS regional studies
• AgMIP...
4. Informing decisions
• National partners
• Regional organizations
• International organizations
and donors
• CGIAR
• Cen...
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:
biophysical and economic effects
General
circulation
models
(GCMs)
Global
gridded...
Projections to 2050 w/o climate
change
Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds &
suga...
Climate change impacts in 2050
Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds &
sugar
-10
-5...
IMPACT model: selected results
• Yields
• Prices
• Total demand
• Per-capita food demand
• Trade
• Food security
Growth in global cereal production
(SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Growth in cereal production by
region
(SSP2, NoCC)
World Latin Am & Caribbean
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Source:
IFPRI,...
Growth in global production of
pulses and oilseeds (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Pulses O...
Rainfed maize and climate change: Projected
yield changes in 2050, before economic
responses
(HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IF...
Yield effects of climate change
(SSP2)
Cereals
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East A...
Yield effects of climate change
(SSP2)
Cereals Maize
Rice Wheat
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FS...
Yield effects of climate change
(SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Cereals Roots & tubers
Oilseeds P...
Price impacts of climate and
socioeconomic drivers
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
SSPsRCPs
Cereals Meats
Total global demand: aggregated
commodities (SSP2, NoCC)2010=1.00
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Total global demand: maize, rice,
wheat (SSP2, NoCC)2010=1.00
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Composition of food supply (SSP2,
NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and...
Maize demand composition
(mmt) (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Soybean demand composition
(mmt)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Cassava demand composition
(mmt)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LA...
Net trade and climate change
(SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = E...
Population at risk of hunger
(SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific;...
Exploring the impacts of improved
technologies and practices on…
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Malnou...
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight in
IITA
• Mandate crops: cassava, yam, maize, plantain/banana,
cowpea and soybean
• O...
Projected growth in cowpea production and
consumption in Nigeria and Niger (SSP2)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
...
Projected gap between production and
consumption of soybean in Africa
(SSP2, RCP8.5)
-5000
-4500
-4000
-3500
-3000
-2500
-...
Future plans for GFSF work in
IITA
• Tools: develop accurate ‘base’
results for IITA’s mandate crops
• Biophysical crop mo...
4. Informing decision making
• National partners
• Regional organizations
• International organizations
and donors
• CGIAR...
The CGIAR Research Agenda
System Level Outcomes (SLOs) and
Intermediate Development Objectives (IDOs)
Increased
resilience...
Model improvements under way
• Livestock and fish
• Nutrition and health
• Land use
• Environmental impacts
• Variability
...
Concluding thoughts
• Collective effort, involving all 15 CGIAR centers (and
other partners)
• Multiple scales of analysis...
Thank you
k.wiebe@cgiar.org
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Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Quantitative modeling to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners

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Presentation during IITA R4D week 2015 (23 - 27 Nov. 2015). By: Keith Wiebe, IFPRI

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Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Quantitative modeling to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners

  1. 1. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Quantitative modeling to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners 23 November 2015 (R4D Week 2015) Keith Wiebe, IFPRI
  2. 2. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Quantitative modeling to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners Keith Wiebe, IFPRI IITA, Ibadan, 23 November 2015
  3. 3. Outline • Introduce the Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) program • Share some recent projections from the IMPACT model • Describe some of the work that IITA is doing as part of GFSF • Reflect on how we might help inform decision making in the CGIAR
  4. 4. Selected drivers of change • Today, this season, this year • Weather, pests, markets, conflict, migration… • Medium term • Agricultural policies, trade policies, markets… • Long term • Population, income, resources, climate, preferences, technology…
  5. 5. Socioeconomic and climate drivers Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007. CO2 equiv. (ppm)Radiative forcing (W/m2) Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)
  6. 6. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight 1. Improved tools for biophysical and economic modeling 2. Stronger community of practice for scenario analysis and ex ante impact assessment 3. Improved assessments of alternative global futures 4. To inform research, investment and policy decisions in the CGIAR and its partners
  7. 7. 1. Improved modeling tools • Complete recoding of IMPACT v3 • Disaggregation geographically and by commodity • Improved water & crop models • New data management system • Modular framework • Training
  8. 8. 2. Stronger community of practice • All 15 CGIAR centers now participate in GFSF • Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IFPRI, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish; AfricaRice and CIFOR are joining • Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP • PIK, GTAP, Wageningen, IIASA, UFL, FAO, OECD, EC/JRC, USDA/ERS, …
  9. 9. • Role of agricultural technologies • Africa regional reports • Analyses by CGIAR centers • CCAFS regional studies • AgMIP global economic assessments • Private sector Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia) 3. Improved assessments
  10. 10. 4. Informing decisions • National partners • Regional organizations • International organizations and donors • CGIAR • Centers • CRPs • System level?
  11. 11. Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: biophysical and economic effects General circulation models (GCMs) Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) Global economic models Δ Temp Δ Precip … Δ Yield (biophys) Δ Area Δ Yield Δ Cons. Δ Trade Climate Biophysical Economic Source: Nelson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014)
  12. 12. Projections to 2050 w/o climate change Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Yields Area Production Prices Trade Percentchangefrom2005to2050 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)
  13. 13. Climate change impacts in 2050 Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Yields Area Production Prices Trade Percentchangein2050 SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5 Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)
  14. 14. IMPACT model: selected results • Yields • Prices • Total demand • Per-capita food demand • Trade • Food security
  15. 15. Growth in global cereal production (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  16. 16. Growth in cereal production by region (SSP2, NoCC) World Latin Am & Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  17. 17. Growth in global production of pulses and oilseeds (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015 Pulses Oilseeds
  18. 18. Rainfed maize and climate change: Projected yield changes in 2050, before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5) Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations
  19. 19. Yield effects of climate change (SSP2) Cereals Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015 WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
  20. 20. Yield effects of climate change (SSP2) Cereals Maize Rice Wheat WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  21. 21. Yield effects of climate change (SSP2) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015 Cereals Roots & tubers Oilseeds Pulses Fruits & veg Sugar WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
  22. 22. Price impacts of climate and socioeconomic drivers Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015 SSPsRCPs Cereals Meats
  23. 23. Total global demand: aggregated commodities (SSP2, NoCC)2010=1.00 Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  24. 24. Total global demand: maize, rice, wheat (SSP2, NoCC)2010=1.00 Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  25. 25. Composition of food supply (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015 WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
  26. 26. Maize demand composition (mmt) (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  27. 27. Soybean demand composition (mmt) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  28. 28. Cassava demand composition (mmt) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
  29. 29. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015 EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Millionmetrictons Cereals Net trade and climate change (SSP2)
  30. 30. Net trade and climate change (SSP2) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015 EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Soybeans Millionmetrictons
  31. 31. Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015 EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
  32. 32. Exploring the impacts of improved technologies and practices on… -40.0 -35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation Crop Protection - insects Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014) Food Security (Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline) Source: Islam et al. (draft) Crop yields (Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)
  33. 33. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight in IITA • Mandate crops: cassava, yam, maize, plantain/banana, cowpea and soybean • Objectives of GFSF in IITA: • Development of modelling tools adapted to needs of IITA • Community of practice to enhance validity of modelling tools and results: • Engagement between modellers and non-economists in IITA (breeders; agronomists; etc.) • Engagement between IITA and modellers in NARS: training workshops; etc. • Informing R4D priority setting • Agronomy versus breeding: resource allocation • Better targeting of improved technologies depending on agro-ecological characteristics • National policies to enhance adoption of improved technologies: engagement with policy-makers
  34. 34. Projected growth in cowpea production and consumption in Nigeria and Niger (SSP2) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Nigeria-Cons-NoCC Nigeria-Cons-HadGEM Nigeria-Prod-NoCC Nigeria-Prod-HadGEM Nigeria (000 MT) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Niger-Cons-NoCC Niger-Cons-HadGEM Niger-Prod-NoCC Niger-Prod-HadGEM Niger (000 MT) Source: IITA (in progress)
  35. 35. Projected gap between production and consumption of soybean in Africa (SSP2, RCP8.5) -5000 -4500 -4000 -3500 -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 2005 2030 2040 2050 Demandgap(000MT) Africa - SSP2- NoCC Africa - SSP2- HadGEM Source: IITA (in progress)
  36. 36. Future plans for GFSF work in IITA • Tools: develop accurate ‘base’ results for IITA’s mandate crops • Biophysical crop modelling: calibrate and validate standard and promising technologies • Socio-economic modelling: results for base year (2005) for all IITA’s mandate crops; intrinsic productivity growth rates (IPRs); • Community of practice: training workshop on bio-economic modelling (BUK) • Priority setting: report on impact of promising cowpea technologies Arega Tahirou Sika Alpha Kamara, agronomist Boukar Ousmane, cowpea breeder Ken Boote Prof. Jibrin
  37. 37. 4. Informing decision making • National partners • Regional organizations • International organizations and donors • CGIAR • Center work planning • CRP Phase 2 proposals • PIM, RTB, Maize, et al. • System level? • ISPC and donor interest
  38. 38. The CGIAR Research Agenda System Level Outcomes (SLOs) and Intermediate Development Objectives (IDOs) Increased resilience of the poor to climate change and other shocks Enhanced smallholder market access Increased incomes and employment Increased productivity Improved diets for poor and vulnerable people Improved food safety Improved human and animal health through better agricultural practices Natural capital enhanced and protected, especially from climate change Enhanced benefits from ecosystem goods and services More sustainably managed agro- ecosystems Reduced Poverty Improved natural resource systems and ecosystem services Improved food and nutrition security for health
  39. 39. Model improvements under way • Livestock and fish • Nutrition and health • Land use • Environmental impacts • Variability • Gender • Poverty
  40. 40. Concluding thoughts • Collective effort, involving all 15 CGIAR centers (and other partners) • Multiple scales of analysis • Opportunity to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners • Quantitative model results as one input among several • On-going effort to build capacity and a community of practice to assess options over time • Looking forward to collaboration with IITA!
  41. 41. Thank you k.wiebe@cgiar.org

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