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www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium
Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of
genetically modified banana resista...
Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of
genetically modified banana resistant to
Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes...
Motivation
• 170 million ha planted to GM crops in specific countries
(Qaim and Kouser, 2013)
• In countries yet to embrac...
• Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA) is a big banana busket
– Contributes 60% of total banana area in Africa
– Produces 63...
• BXW is a big threat in GLA
– BXW affects quality of fruits
– Banana losses up to100%
Two control methods:
1. Cultural methods: debuding, destroying plant, sterilize tools
– No control, losses are at US$ 5.6 ...
Methodology
• Rapid appraisals in 2013:
– Burundi, Eastern DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda
• Selection of partici...
Farmers’ awareness of BXW in GLA
Banana production loss due to BXW
Awareness of GM crops
% of respondents aware of the meaning of GM banana (N=75) 36.0
% defining GM banana as … (N=29)
A ba...
Willingness to adopt GMB-BXW
N=37
Projected adoption rate of GMB-BXW
Consumer preference and enquiry
40%
60%
No
Yes
Do consumers ask about variety type?
35%
24%
41%
Improved varieties
Indiffe...
Potential consumers of GM bananas
Reasons for consumer preference
• High demand: All consumers (57%), Farmers(63%)
• Price...
Economic benefits of adopting GMB-
BXW
Country Burundi DRC Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda
Internal rate of return 56.5 57.8 ...
Conclusions
• Farmers are willing to adopt GMB-BXW in GLA
– Initial adoption rate ranges from 21 – 70%
• Consumers &farmer...
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Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of genetically modified banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of Africa

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Presentation during IITA R4D week 2015 (23 - 27 Nov. 2015). By: Ainembabazi John Herbert, Tripathi Leena, Rusike Joseph, Tahirou Abdoulaye, Manyong Victor.

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Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of genetically modified banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of Africa

  1. 1. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of genetically modified banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of Africa Ainembabazi John Herbert, Tripathi Leena, Rusike Joseph, Tahirou Abdoulaye, Manyong Victor 24th November 2015 (R4D Week 2015)
  2. 2. Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of genetically modified banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of Africa PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0138998 2015 Ainembabazi John Herbert, Tripathi Leena, Rusike Joseph, Tahirou Abdoulaye, Manyong Victor
  3. 3. Motivation • 170 million ha planted to GM crops in specific countries (Qaim and Kouser, 2013) • In countries yet to embrace biotechnology: – Is it viable to continue investing in dev’t of GM banana? – What would be the returns to investments? – What are the farmers’ perceptions on BXW and willingness to adopt GM banana?
  4. 4. • Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA) is a big banana busket – Contributes 60% of total banana area in Africa – Produces 63% of Africa’s and 21% of world’s banana supply – Consumes 147 kcal daily per person, highest in the world Introduction
  5. 5. • BXW is a big threat in GLA – BXW affects quality of fruits – Banana losses up to100%
  6. 6. Two control methods: 1. Cultural methods: debuding, destroying plant, sterilize tools – No control, losses are at US$ 5.6 billion in 10-15 years – With control, losses are at US$ 3.1 billion in 10-15 years 2. Use of natural host plant resistant to BXW; Non-existent Solution to BXW in GLA • IITA in collaboration with NARO & AATF – Successfully developed GM banana resistant to BXW – Multiplication, distribution & commercialization exp. in 2020 Control methods
  7. 7. Methodology • Rapid appraisals in 2013: – Burundi, Eastern DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda • Selection of participants in each country based on: – Major producing areas & incidence of BXW – 3 representative banana producing regions (districts) • In each region (district), participants were: – Key informants from government & research institutions – Extension agents from government and NGOs – Banana traders (retailers and wholesalers) – Representative banana farmers (smallholder &progressive) • Had bad experience of BXW
  8. 8. Farmers’ awareness of BXW in GLA
  9. 9. Banana production loss due to BXW
  10. 10. Awareness of GM crops % of respondents aware of the meaning of GM banana (N=75) 36.0 % defining GM banana as … (N=29) A banana bred to resist diseases 34.5 A banana with gene(s) from other sources 41.4 Good eye appeal banana but tasteless, has health effects 24.1 % of respondents supporting dev’t of GMB-BXW (N=112) 83.0
  11. 11. Willingness to adopt GMB-BXW N=37
  12. 12. Projected adoption rate of GMB-BXW
  13. 13. Consumer preference and enquiry 40% 60% No Yes Do consumers ask about variety type? 35% 24% 41% Improved varieties Indifferent Local varieties Reasons: • Local varieties are: tasty (84%) and cook fast (16%) • Indifferent: both varieties are tasty (56%) and cook fast (44%) Attributes considered during purchase of bananas • Quality and taste (37%), Size (51%), others (e.g prices) (12%) Consumer preference N=37 N=84
  14. 14. Potential consumers of GM bananas Reasons for consumer preference • High demand: All consumers (57%), Farmers(63%) • Price determines: Urban consumers (54%) • Attributes important: All consumers (21%), Farmers(6%), • Imp. varieties known: All consumers (11%), Farmers(19%) Farmers 13% None 7% All consumers 56% Urban consumers 24% N=101
  15. 15. Economic benefits of adopting GMB- BXW Country Burundi DRC Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Internal rate of return 56.5 57.8 43.2 29.6 43.1 85.6 Gross consumer surplus (million US$) 110 119 42 19 61 658 Gross producer surplus (million US$) 55 60 21 9 31 329 Total benefits (million US$) 161 168 60 20 76 953 Benefit – Cost ratio 33.85 17.13 20.7 3.62 6.11 30.05 • Projected annual economic benefits after adoption of GMB-BXW
  16. 16. Conclusions • Farmers are willing to adopt GMB-BXW in GLA – Initial adoption rate ranges from 21 – 70% • Consumers &farmers benefit from adoption of GMB- BXW – Consumers benefit twice as much due price reduction – Benefits are largest in countries badly hit by BXW • Participatory bleeding programs have a high potential for

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