Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Disentangling The Sources of Growth


Published on

Investigate sources and determinants of agricultural growth in Africa.Land, Labor, Fertilizer, Tractor, Research, Extension…… what are their exact contributions to agricultural growth in Africa:Lesson from macro-data.

Published in: Business, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Disentangling The Sources of Growth

  1. 1. DISENTANGLING THE SOURCES OF GROWTH. Land, Labor, Fertilizer, Tractor, Research, Extension…… what are their exact contributions to agricultural growth in Africa: Lesson from macro-data. Guy B. Nkamleu
  2. 2. African growth tragedy <ul><li>Africa’s growth performance continues to challenge our understanding. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>With the African population expected to grow at 2.8% per annum, simply preventing an increase in the number of Africa’s absolute poor will require an annual growth of at least 5%, almost twice the level achieved since 1973. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Growth in agriculture, particularly in Africa, has been strongly tied to overall economic growth and poverty reduction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recent studies show that for African countries, a 10% increase in agricultural yield leads to a 9% decrease in the percentage of those living on less than US $1.00 a day. </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. African growth tragedy <ul><li>Why some countries achieve rapid economic growth and some other countries experience stagnation and even economic regression ? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This has led researchers to examine the main sources of growth for different countries and regions of the world. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Efforts to understand that should be to first, explore the driving forces of economic growth……. In the case of Africa, attention should focus on sources and driving forces of agricultural growth. </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>AIMS : Investigate sources and determinants of agricultural growth in Africa. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The focus is on quantifying: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>how much growth in agricultural output is associated with growth in physical capital, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>how much is due to technology, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>how much is due to productivity improvement, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>how much is due to institutional change and other factors. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Potential sources of Ag. Growth Tractors Labor Quality Labor Quantity Chemical inputs Technology Agricultural Growth Land Random factors Livestock What drive me ? Forest clearing Population growth Cash investment Extension Climate, disasters, conflicts … Cash investment Heads Research
  6. 6. Data Used Panel Data (1970-2000) on the agricultural sector of each country…. (FAOSTAT). <ul><li>These data included: </li></ul><ul><li>value of the Agricultural production, </li></ul><ul><li>agricultural labor, </li></ul><ul><li>number of tractors in use, </li></ul><ul><li>quantity of fertilizer used, </li></ul><ul><li>agricultural land, </li></ul><ul><li>number of livestock in sheep-equivalent. </li></ul>
  7. 7. Data: Sampled Countries <ul><li>Top 26 African agricultural producers ( except South Africa Republic ) </li></ul>Nigeria Cameroon Ghana Ivory coast Burkina Faso Mali Senegal Uganda Zimbabwe Mozambique Angola Madagascar DR Congo Algeria Morocco Egypt Sudan Tunisia Chad Niger Tanzania Malawi Kenya Rwanda Burundi Guinea
  8. 8. Visualisation Frontier 1 X 1 X 2 P 2 P 1 X (Input) Y(Output) P 4 A A 1 Frontier 2 B
  9. 9. break down the growth rate in neo-classical production function <ul><li>We first consider the following Solow neo-classical production function: </li></ul><ul><li>Growth accounting analysis generally assumes that the residual of this production function captures total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The break down of the growth rate of the aggregate output is given by. </li></ul><ul><li>Where dots over variables indicate rate of change </li></ul><ul><li>and αitj is the output elasticity of input j, for country i in time t. </li></ul>
  10. 10. TFP derivation: Malmquist Index Method Agricultural Growth Productivity Growth Efficiency Growth Technical Growth Scale Efficiency Pure Technical Efficiency
  11. 11. Four distance functions to compute <ul><li>Distance from production point of t+1 to technology in period t </li></ul><ul><li>Distance from production point of t+1, to technology in period t+1 </li></ul><ul><li>Distance from production point of t, to technology in period t </li></ul><ul><li>Distance from production point of t to technology in period t+1 </li></ul>
  12. 12. Yearly agricultural growth by decade in Africa (%)
  13. 13. Yearly agricultural growth by region in Africa, 1971-00 (%)
  14. 14. Growth decomposition Agricultural growth Land, Labor, Fertilizer, Tractors, … . Technological change (research) Conflict, Climate, Natural disaster …… Technical efficiency (extension) Physical factors Productivity Unaccounted factors
  15. 15. Agricultural growth contributors, 1971-00 (%)
  16. 16. Agricultural growth contributors by decade (%)
  17. 17. Agricultural growth contributors by region (%)
  18. 18. Contribution of physical inputs in the agricultural growth, 1971-00 (%)
  19. 19. Contribution of physical inputs in the agricultural growth by region, 1971-00 (%)
  20. 20. Implications for R4D Technology or Efficiency ? Technological change (research) Technical efficiency (research/extension)
  21. 21. Technology Gap and Productivity difference in African Agriculture