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Aflatoxin and its Management

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AgResults is a new multilateral initiative addressing the need for increased investment in global food security and agriculture, in particular from the private sector achieved through Pull Mechanism.
Increase incentives for private sector investment in agriculture.
Incentive after measurable results not before i.e Aflatoxin reduced maize through smallholder/contracting farmers.
In areas where private sector investment is virtually absent due to market uncertainties.
Leaving production, marketing and distribution strategies to the private sector( Implementers).

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Aflatoxin and its Management

  1. 1. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Aflatoxin and its Management. Debo Akande IITA CADP Kano November 2015
  2. 2. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Introduction to AgResults Program AgResults is a new multilateral initiative addressing the need for increased investment in global food security and agriculture, in particular from the private sector achieved through Pull Mechanism. Increase incentives for private sector investment in agriculture. Incentive after measurable results not before i.e Aflatoxin reduced maize through smallholder/contracting farmers. In areas where private sector investment is virtually absent due to market uncertainties. Leaving production, marketing and distribution strategies to the private sector( Implementers).
  3. 3. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Pull mechanism in AgResults Aflasafe Project Pull mechanism is designed to provide an incentive for farmers within established networks to apply Aflasafe in the field and produce as much high-Aflasafe maize as possible and create sustainable market.  Per-unit payments for performance : total kilograms of maize treated with Aflasafe collected and aggregated by a participant from smallholder farmers.  Participant will receive a payment equal to $18.75 (3,000 Naira) for every metric tonne of high-Aflasafe tested.  100% payout for aflasafe prevalence of the quantity of maize that is above >70%.
  4. 4. Goal To improve the health and livelihood of smallholder farmers in Nigeria Long-term outcome (5 year) Increase consumption of quality maize Improve smallholder incomes Medium-term outcome (3 year) Short-term outcome (1 year) Outputs Activities and initiatives Increase availability of quality maize Increase smallholder sale of maize in downstream markets Increase treatment of crops with AflasafeTM Increase smallholder maize yields Administration of the pull mechanism including marketing, promotion, verification and disbursement of funds Program Evaluation of output harvested and collected Participant Support to farmers to increase yields Participant Distribution of AflasafeTM to smallholders Program Evaluation of AflasafeTM prevalence AgResults Operational Models
  5. 5. Pilot Mgmt 27% Verifier 18% Awards 55% • High Pilot Mgmt (PM) proportion as 40% of the PM budget is for technical support provided by IITA (training on AflasafeTM, sporulation verification etc.) Budget Category Approved Pilot Budget Pilot Budget Distribution AgResults Avg. Budget Distribution Pilot Mgmt $3.4M 27% 20% Verifier $2.2M 18% 11% Awards $6.8M 55% 69% Total $12.4M 100% 100% Nigeria Aflasafe™ Pilot • Aflatoxins are produced by a species of Aspergillus fungi and have health effects including cancer and stunting. • According to the CDC, 4.5 billion people in developing countries may be exposed to aflatoxin through their diets. • Biocontrol reduces contamination along the entire supply chain, from the field to the consumer. • The Pilot incentivizes the adoption of a USDA & IITA-developed biocontrol product, called AflasafeTM, that prevents the growth of aflatoxin-producing Aspergillus by crowding it out with a harmless species of Aspergillus. • Nigeria was chosen as pilot location as 1) it is the leading producer & consumer of maize in sub-Saharan Africa and up to 60% of its maize may be affected, 2) it is the only developing country in which AflasafeTM was registered for use. • AflasafeTM is distributed on the soil by hand 2-3 weeks prior to crop flowering (10-20 kg per ha) and outcompetes the aflatoxin species of Aspergillus for organic matter. Application costs ~$19/ha, with a 95% success. What is the problem addressed by this Pilot? Low demand for aflatoxin-free maize due to low general awareness of the dangers of consuming aflatoxins Lack of regulation as restrictions on aflatoxin levels would affect a large proportion of the food supply Initial “push” efforts to boost supply of aflatoxin-free maize likely unsustainable and un- scalable without linkages to premium markets Low investments by market participants to boost supply due to lenforcement of regulation and low confidence in existence of a premium market What market barriers contribute to this problem? What are the Pilot’s goals? • Improve health outcomes by increasing consumption of aflatoxin-free maize through supply & demand increase • Generate economic benefits for smallholder farmers through linkages to premium markets for aflatoxin-free maize • Build a sustainable market for AflasafeTM • Learn about the effectiveness of pull mechanisms for incentivizing SHFs’ adoption of agricultural technologies and provide a blueprint for a larger rollout of biocontrol in developing countriesHow is the pull mechanism structured? Implementers Aggregators/Outgrowers work with farmers and provide them with value- added services and market linkages Incentive Aggregators receive a premium payment of US$18.75 per MT of maize with a >70% prevalence rate of AflasafeTM • Incentive corresponds to long- term expected premium (5-15%) over market price for aflatoxin- free maize • SHFs to get even higher ROI with higher yields and increased market demand Rationale What is the pilot budget? Page 1
  6. 6. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Implementer Selection Planting Season Harvest Sampling & Verification Awards South North South North • Field officers inspect AflasafeTM treated fields for visible signs of sporulation 5-15 days after application • Farmers harvest, thresh maize and sell a portion to Implementers • IITA samples 1 out of every 3, 100-kg-bags of aggregated • IITA creates 1 homogeneous sample per truck • 100% of samples are tested for Aflatoxin and AflasafeTM • Premiums are paid if the sample has >70% • AflasafeTM applied to the soil by farmers 1 to 1.5 months after planting (Apr‘13 – Mar‘14) Year 2 Year 3 Year 4Year 1Year 0 Design and Pre-launch (Apr‘14 – Mar‘15) (Apr‘15 – Mar‘16) (Apr‘16 – Mar‘17) (Apr‘17 – Mar‘18) Closeout (May‘18– Jul‘18 ) 67% 33% • 14 implementers in 8 Northern states • 7 implementers in 4 Southern Sates Kaduna Kano Jigawa Zamfara Kogi Kwara Oyo Federal Capitol Territory Ogun Ekiti Page 2 Where is the Pilot operating in Nigeria? What is the timeline and schedule of the Pilot? How is sampling and verification conducted? Planting & AflasafeTM Application Sporulation Verification Harvest, Aggregation & Sampling Verification What is the Pilot cycle?
  7. 7. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium The role of an Implementer Development of 300+ maize farmers as groups. Technical and Business Support ( pre-planting- post-harvest) for the growth of the small-holders farmers (Quantity and Quality) Aggregation and marketing of aflatoxin reduced maize at premium prices.
  8. 8. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Characteristics of an Implementer Aggregation Demonstrate ability to work with or intention to work with at least 300 small holder farmers and have an established or proposed business model of sourcing maize from smallholder farmers and provide assistance to their smaller holder members. Have the ability and capacity to organize and coordinate smallholder farmers through pre-planting, planting and post-harvest handling of maize that has been treated with AflasafeTM. Have the capacity to train and monitor farmer groups on the environmental application of AflasafeTM, post-harvest management and the safe transfer and storage of this maize. Be capable of providing support to smallholder farmers’ maize productivity through extension and access to farm inputs. This could include having systems in place to add value to production of maize or link farmers to a package of yield-enhancing inputs, i.e. fertilizers, storage facility, finance, etc. Provide business references including from farmers; references should cover technical support and fairness of market price offerings. Be capable of facilitating or coordinating the purchase of AflasafeTM on behalf of the farmer groups as required. Have the willingness and capacity to label all maize bags produced by farmer groups in keeping with AgResults requirements.
  9. 9. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Integrated approach to manage aflatoxin Aggregation Aflasafe Inputs & training to improve productivity Farmer groups/ value chain Training for pre/postharvest afla management Awareness and sensitizations Policy and advocacy Market linkages Aflatoxin testing
  10. 10. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Parameters 2013/2014 2014/2015 Number of implementers 4 9 Total Aflasafe purchased (tons) 24 58.2 Number of farmers 1,015 3,271 Treated area (ha) 1,457 4,998 Average productivity (tons/ha) 3.9 2.6 Maize aggregated for sale (tons) 2,031 7,220 Samples with <4 ppb AF (%) (n = 660) 99.0% (n = 232) 93% Samples with <10 ppb AF (%) (n = 660) 0.5% (n = 232) 4% samples with < 20 ppb AF (%) (n = 660) 0.5% (n = 232) 3% Samples with >70% aflasafe strains (n = 88) 65% - 100% (n=81) 65%-100% Return on Investment (ROI) (-28 to 510%) mean 210% (71 to 1674%) mean 489% Aflasafe maize kept for family 46% 20.3% AgResults Aflasafe Pilot Key Statistics compared
  11. 11. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Implementer State Number of farmers Area treated (ha) Average area per farmer (ha)Total Male Female Babban Gona Kaduna 1,774 1,444 330 1,701 1.0 Tukuwayan Kaduna 607 588 19 1,441 2.4 Maslaha Zamfara 215 215 0 606 2.8 Ahalson Kano 320 320 0 600 1.9 Dak Farms Oyo 120 96 24 159 1.3 Albarka Kano 53 53 0 98.3 1.9 Fantsuam Kaduna 97 11 86 77.01 0.8 Ado Poly Ekiti 33 29 4 68 2.1 CADP Kaduna 52 46 6 247.1 4.8 Total 3271 2802 469 4997.41 AgResults Aflasafe Pilot (2014/2015) Analysis of Participants
  12. 12. Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 No. of Implementers 5 12 22 37 No. of Farmers 2,500 8,500 19,500 35,000 Avg. Land Size (ha/farmer) 2 2 2 2 Avg. Yield (MT/ha) 4 4 4 4 Volume of Maize Produced (MT) 20,000 68,000 156,000 280,000 Projected Premiums Awards $.11M $.91M $2.08M $3.74M Business Plan (BP) Projections Year 0* Year 1* Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 No. of Implementers 4 9 21 38 46 No. of Farmers 1,015 3,271 8,037 17,918 30,944 Avg. Land Size (ha/farmer) 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 2 Avg. Yield (MT/ha) 3.5 2.6 3 3.5 3.9 Volume of Maize Produced (MT) 4,974 13,327 40,989 112,881 241,366 Projected Premiums Awards $.03M $.11M $.44M $1.21M $2.58M Revised Projections: September 2015 (1) * Based on actuals (2) (2) Other assumptions: Aggregation levels: BP: 75%; Revised Projections: 60% Total Premium Awards $4.36M Situation Lesson Implementers’ Ability to Grow, Aggregate and Increase Yields AflasafeTM works and the ROI is good. Implementers struggle, however, with their ability to scale, aggregate, and provide value-added services to farmers. Climate issues have also affected the pilot Access to finance is critical to achieve the desired aggregator model. Also, impact of climate issues needs to be considered when making projections Raising New Value Chain Actors The pilot has attracted Implementers with fewer farmers and is growing at slower rates than projected in the BP Estimates related to growth rates and timing should be conservative initially when working with less established players. Government Alignment The pilot has benefitted from government collaboration and an absence of conflicting policies Non-conflicting governmental policies are critical for the pilot’s success Total Premium Awards $6.85M • IITA uses vegetative compatible group (VCG) testing to determine AflasafeTM prevalence levels. • USDA is also developing a DNA assay to reduce verification costs. The assay is based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that occur in the AflasafeTM isolates, but are absent in other Aflatoxin isolates. This new assay will be used for the current Year 2 verification.Aflatoxin-b How is AflasafeTM maize verified? What are the lessons learned so far? Page 3 What were the projections? What have been the results so far?
  13. 13. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium Conclusion

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