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Climate Change in Jamaica: Impact and Response

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Climate Change in Jamaica: Impact and Response

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Peer Learning Summit: Gender-responsive National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Processes

Montego Bay, Jamaica​ | July 26-28, 2022​

Peer Learning Summit: Gender-responsive National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Processes

Montego Bay, Jamaica​ | July 26-28, 2022​

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Climate Change in Jamaica: Impact and Response

  1. 1. Climate Change in Jamaica: Impact and Response Presented by: Le-Anne Roper Climate Change Division, Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation At the 2022 Peer Learning Summit on Gender-Responsive NAP Processes July 6-8, 2022
  2. 2. Effects of Climate Change – Jamaica • From the State of the Jamaican Climate 2019 report, observed changes include the following: • Temperatures have been increasing, with nighttime temperatures increasing at a fast rate than daytime temperatures (i.e., nights are getting hotter faster) • Rainfall has year-to-year variability that is significant. There is also an increase in extreme rainfall events • Sea levels in Jamaica are rising • Storms and hurricanes have increased in frequency and intensity, with the south coast being more susceptible to being affected by them
  3. 3. Temperature in Jamaica from 1990 to 2019. Source: SOJC 2019 Rainfall in Jamaica from 1881 to 2019. Source: SOJC 2019
  4. 4. Historic and Present Climate • In Jamaica, State of the Jamaican Climate 2019 shows: • The frequency and duration of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean has increased since 1995 • Marked increase in Categories 4 and 5 hurricanes • The south of the country is more susceptible to hurricanes Map showing probability of a hurricane passing within 50km of a grid box based on 66 years (1950 – 2015) of historical data. Source: State of the Jamaican Climate Report 2019
  5. 5. Historic and Present Climate • In Jamaica, State of the Jamaican Climate 2019 shows: • Sea levels have been rising • Port Royal measurements show an average 1.7mm/year • Across the Caribbean, there is an average increase 0.18 ± 0.01 mm/year between 1950 and 2010 • However, between 1993 and 2010, up to 3.2 mm/year observed Mean rate of Sea Level Rise across the Caribbean. Source: State of the Jamaican Climate Report 2019
  6. 6. Data source: Planning Institute of Jamaica
  7. 7. • Cost of extreme events • Uses damage and loss assessments Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica EVENT Year Cat. Cost ($JB) GDP cost (%) Drought 1999/ 2000 - 0.7 0.2 Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 2.5 0.7 May/June Flood Rains 2002 - 2.5 0.6 Hurricane Charley 2004 4 0.4 0.1 Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 36.9 6.8 Hurricanes Dennis & Emily 2005 4 6.0 1.0 Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 3.6 0.6 Drought* 2005 0.5 0.1 Hurricane Dean 2007 4 23.8 3.0 Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 15.5 1.8 Drought* 2008 0.04 - Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 20.6 1.9 Hurricane Sandy 2012 2 9.9 0.8 Drought* 2014 0.9 0.1 March to June Flood Rains 2017 4.1 0.2 Tropical Storms Zeta and Eta 2020 6.7 n/a Tropical Storm Elsa 2021 0.8 n/a Total 128.0 1.3 Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica
  8. 8. Source: ESSJ 2020
  9. 9. Past Headlines - Case Study 9
  10. 10. EVENT Year Cat. Cost ($JB) GDP cost (%) Drought 1999/ 2000 - 0.7 0.2 Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 2.5 0.7 May/June Flood Rains 2002 - 2.5 0.6 Hurricane Charley 2004 4 0.4 0.1 Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 36.9 6.8 Hurricanes Dennis & Emily 2005 4 6.0 1.0 Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 3.6 0.6 Drought* 2005 0.5 0.1 Hurricane Dean 2007 4 23.8 3.0 Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 15.5 1.8 Drought* 2008 0.04 - Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 20.6 1.9 Hurricane Sandy 2012 2 9.9 0.8 Drought* 2014 0.9 0.1 March to June Flood Rains 2017 4.1 0.2 Tropical Storms Zeta and Eta 2020 6.7 n/a Tropical Storm Elsa 2021 0.8 n/a Total 128.0 1.3 * Drought captures figures for Agriculture only. Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica
  11. 11. 70,000.0 60,000.0 50,000.0 40,000.0 30,000.0 20,000.0 10,000.0 0.0 Social Productive Infrastructure Environment Data source: PlanningInstitute of Jamaica Emergency Cost (J$Million) Cost of Natural Disasters in Jamaica, 2000 - 2017
  12. 12. Effects of Climate Change – Jamaica • From the State of the Jamaican Climate 2019 report, projected changes follow the same trends as those observed. Notably: • Temperatures will continue to increase across seasons of the year, with interior sections of the island getting hotter, faster; and more warm days and nights • Rainfall will have a drying trend (i.e., less rainfall each year) as early as 2030s; and the south and east of the island will have the most significant declines (e.g., Portland) • Sea levels will continue to rise and at a faster rate than before • There is an increase projected for the number of stronger hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5)
  13. 13. Temperature Projections End of Century 2050s 13 Source: State of the Jamaican Climate 2019
  14. 14. Rainfall Projections (Percentage Change) 2050s Source: State of the Jamaican Climate 2019
  15. 15. Rainfall Projections (Percentage Change) End of Century Source: State of the Jamaican Climate 2019
  16. 16. Approach to Action
  17. 17. Policy-Relevant Documents
  18. 18. Contact Details Climate Change Division Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation 16a Half-Way-Tree Road Kingston 5, Jamaica +1 (876) 633-7500 climate.change@megjc.gov.jm ClimateChangeDivisionJamaica @ccdjamaica @ccdjamaica

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