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Where do we stand? Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and key issues to be addressed in Paris


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A presentation by IIED's Achala Abeysinghe and Caroline Dihl Prolo, and Mozaharul Alam, of UNEP.

The presentation was made at the Regional Forum on Climate Change held in Bangkok, Thailand in July 2015.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Where do we stand? Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and key issues to be addressed in Paris

  1. 1. Author name Date Achala Abeysinghe, Caroline Dihl Prolo (IIED) & Mozaharul Alam (UNEP) Where do we stand? Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and key issues to be addressed in Paris
  2. 2. I. INDCs Background... II. Suggesions for an INDC template... III. Quick look at INDCs submissions... IV. Negotiations stocktaking... V. Key issues to be addressed in Paris... About presentation
  3. 3. INDCs are the individual efforts of all parties in order to collectively build global climate change stability and resilience. Photo: UNDP’s Flickr – “Equal work”
  4. 4. I. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs): Background When to present the INDCs? How ambitious should an INDC be? What information should be contained in the INDCs?
  5. 5. When to present? Parties were invited to communicate their INDCs well in advance of COP 21, and by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so. As of 25 June of 2015, the following INDCs are submitted:
  6. 6. How ambitious? Parties are to present INDCs that “represent a progression beyond the current undertaking of that Party”. The draft negotiating text includes an option of a no-backtracking rule in the context of the continuous review of the successive “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs). The phrase aims to ensure progression/ ambition towards climate action by all Parties
  7. 7. 1. Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year), 2. Time frames and/or periods for implementation, 3. Scope and coverage, 4. Planning processes, 5. Assumptions and methodological approaches including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals, 6. How the Party considers that its INDCs are fair and ambitious, in light of its national circumstances, and 7. How it contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 What kind of information should be provided?
  8. 8. Preferential Treatment to LDCs and SIDS “(…) least developed countries and small island developing States may communicate information on strategies, plans and actions for low greenhouse gas emission development reflecting their special circumstances in the context of intended nationally determined contributions”.
  9. 9. II - INDCs Template: Mitigation Information to be presented on Mitigation could be divided into the following sections: 1. Technical 2. Aspirational/Explanations 3. Implementation 4. Conditional Contribution and Support Needs
  10. 10. Possible Technical (and Political) Choices 1. Type(s) of (unconditional) contribution 2. Scope: Sectors 3. Scope: Gases 4. Scope: Percentage of Emissions Covered 5. Type of Target 6. Type(s) of Policies and Measures 7. Target level 8. Timeframe 9. Methodologies
  11. 11. Types of Mitigation Contribution (source: UNDP/WRI)
  12. 12. Possible Aspirations/Explanations: How the contribution is ambitious, equitable and adequate to achieve the 1.5oC/2oC degrees goal? • How is it equitable? • How is it ambitious? • How is it adequate?
  13. 13. Elements related to implementation 1. Planning processes: which existing or future domestic policies and actions will implement the mitigation contribution? 2. Legal and Institutional arrangements
  14. 14. Adaptation INDCs
  15. 15. A template for Adaptation INDCs may include the following information: 1. Type(s) of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation needs, by Sector 2. Type(s) of Policies, Actions and Tools 3. Quantified goals (if any) 4. Timeframe 5. Methodologies and Assumptions 6. Implementation 7. Support Needs
  16. 16. INDCs Template: Finance and Support In order to receive international support (finance, technology, capacity building) for the implementation of the MITIGATION and ADAPTATION contribution, developing countries may aim to provide at least the following information, per activity:
  17. 17. • Activity: • Nature of the support: • Finance for mitigation • Finance for adaptation • Technology • Capacity • Level of the Support: • Amount in $ • Quantity of support, in any other quantifiable manner • Frequency/Timeframe for the Support
  18. 18. *European Union: 40% domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 *Ethiopia: 145 Mt CO2 GHG emissions limitation III - Quick look at two INDC Submissions:
  19. 19. EUROPEAN UNION MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION 1. Type of Contribution: Outcomes and PAMs 2. Scope – Sectors: Energy, Industrial processes and product use, agriculture and waste 3. Scope – Gases: All UNFCCC gases 4. Scope – Percentage of Emissions Covered: 100% absolute 5. Type of Target: GHG-based, Economy wide - Base Year 6. Type of PAMs: Strategies, Regulation and Market- based instruments
  20. 20. EUROPEAN UNION MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION 7. Target Level: 40% domestic reductions of GHG emissions 8. Timeframe: Base year: 1990 Single target year: 2030 9. Methodologies: • Inventory: IPCC Guidelines 2006 and IPCC 2013 KP Supplement. • GWP: 100 year timescale in accordance with the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report. • Land sector: Comprehensive accounting framework, activity or land based approach, for emissions and removals from land use, land-use change and forestry. • Use of International Market Based Mechanisms: No contribution from international credits.
  21. 21. 10. How it is *equitable, *ambitious *adequate a) Equity and Ambition:  The target represents a significant progression beyond its current undertaking of a 20% emission reduction commitment by 2020 compared to 1990.  It is in line with the EU objective, in the context of necessary reductions according to the IPCC by developed countries as a group, to reduce its emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990.
  22. 22. 10. How it is *equitable, *ambitious *adequate b) Adequacy:  Consistent with the need for at least halving global emissions by 2050 compared to 1990.  The EU has already reduced their emissions by around 19% on 1990 levels while GDP has grown by more than 44% over the same period.  Average per capita emissions across the EU have fallen from 12 tones CO2-eq. in 1990 to 9 tones CO2-eq. in 2012 and are projected to fall to around 6 tones CO2-eq. in 2030.
  23. 23. 11. Implementation. Planning Processes:  Domestic legally-binding legislation already in place for the 2020 climate and energy package.  The existing legislation for land use, land-use change and forestry (EU Decision 529/2013) is based on the existing accounting rules under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.  Legislative proposals to implement the 2030 climate and energy framework to be submitted by the European Commission to the Council and European Parliament in 2015-2016 on the basis of the general political directions by the European Council.
  24. 24. ETHIOPIA MITIGATION COMPONENT 1. Strategies, Plans and Actions for low carbon development: A National Development Plan, anchored on the Climate Resilient Green Economy Vision and Strategy of Ethiopia. 2. Scope – Sectors: Energy, Industrial processes and product use, agriculture, forestry and waste. 3. Scope – Gases: CO2, CH4 and N20 4. Scope – Percentage of Emissions Covered: - 5. Type of Target (optional): GHG-based, Economy wide – Fixed Level/Carbon Neutrality 6. Target Level (optional): 145 Mt CO2 GHG emissions limitation 7. Timeframe: Single Target year: 2030, towards future Carbon Neutrality.
  25. 25. ETHIOPIA MITIGATION COMPONENT 9. Methodologies: • Inventory: IPCC Guidelines 2006 • GWP: 100 year timescale in accordance with the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report and IPCC 2006 Guidelines. • Land sector: In accordance with the Ethiopian CRGE Strategy • Use of International Market Based Mechanisms: Intends to sell carbon credits during the period to contribute towards achieving its Green Economy Strategy. 10. CONDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION: Not clear how much of the estimated USD 150 billion will need to be supported by international finance and other means of implementation.
  26. 26. ADAPTATION COMPONENT: 1. Type(s) of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation needs:  Sectors: agriculture and livestock, and infrastructure  Impacts: droughts, floods, soil fertility, agricultural losses, pests and diseases. 2. Type(s) of Policies, Actions and Tools:  3 pillars of action: droughts, floods and other cross- cutting interventions, - early warning systems for extreme events, pest-management systems and capacity-building for diseases control in the crops as well as insurance programmes for farmers  All through strategic planning and regulation.
  27. 27. ADAPTATION COMPONENT: 3. Timeframe: Near term actions are aimed to 2020; Long-term beyond 2020. 4. Implementation: National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) since 2007; Ethiopian Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change (EPACC 2011); Nine National Regional States and two City Administrations adaptation plans; Five sectorial adaptation plans; Agriculture sector adaptation strategy; Sustainable Land Management Programme and the Productive Safety Net Programme. 5. Support Needs: Future research will be conducted to quantify the required financial, technological and capacity-building support.
  28. 28. IV – Negotiations Stocktaking • Geneva Text • Upcoming streamlined text in 24 July • Negotiating Text’s Structure:
  29. 29. V - Key issues in PARIS 1. How the INDCs will be anchored in the agreement? 2. Will NDCs be legally binding? How to ensure compliance? 3. How to ensure that INDCs will be updated and reviewed with no backsliding and upward ambition?
  30. 30. Anchoring INDCs in the 2015 Agreement
  31. 31. Thank you! Contact: Dr. Achala Abeysinghe Principal Researcher International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)