1.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 1
30 January 2020
30 January 2020
Contact: Gabrielle Swaby
(gabrielle.swaby@iied.org)
Long Term Low Carbon,
Climate Resilient
Development Strategies
Day 1: Setting the context

2.
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30 January 2020
The Paris Agreement
Temperature Emissions Differentiation Finance Mechanisms
Hold global
temperature increase
to well below 2oC and
pursue efforts to limit
the increase to 1.5oC
Aim for GHG
emissions peak as
soon as possible;
achieve net zero
emissions in 2nd half
of century
Developed countries should
continue to take lead in
reducing GHG emissions,
and developing countries
should continue enhancing
their efforts
Developed countries’
goal to provide
US$100bn annually by
2020, with a new goal
to be set prior to 2025
Loss and
Damage; and
market and
non-market
approaches
Countries’ climate pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions - NDCs) are
at the heart of the Paris Agreement and tools to achieve long-term goals.

3.
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30 January 2020

4.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 4
30 January 2020

5.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 5
30 January 2020Global momentum to
address climate change
• The momentum of the Paris Agreement continues to grow.
• Countries are taking ambitious actions in responding to climate change
• The world for the 5th consecutive year is building twice as much
renewable power as fossil fuels. 2017 was the eighth in a row that
global investment in renewables exceeded US$200 billion.
• Investments are shifting, technology breakthroughs coming in, business
and market preferences changing towards renewables.
• Much greater ambition is required to limit temperature increase to
1.5°C and this will require more ambitious emission reductions and
adequate means of implementation.

6.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 6
30 January 20202020 and raising
ambition
• Building on momentum from the
findings of the IPCC 1.5 Special Report,
with the Paris rules now in place…
• Moving from international negotiations
to domestic action
• Revised and enhanced NDCs for short
term action

7.
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30 January 2020
• The Paris Agreement invites countries to prepare by 2020 ‘long-term,
low greenhouse gas emission development strategies’– visionary
plans for achieving low-carbon, climate-resilient development by 2050
• Crucial for understanding how countries intend to take action
consistent with the mitigation goal in the Paris Agreement: net zero
GHG emissions in the second half of the 21st century
• Fundamentally a voluntary and nationally-driven exercise
• It is a process that updates and evolves as national circumstances
change, technology improves, and new learning takes place
• Provides countries with a space to engage in an open discussion on
pathways for development and on aligning their long-term planning with
the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals.
What is a long-term strategy?

8.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 8
30 January 2020Why develop a long-
term strategy?
Tackle broad long term development agendas:
• align national policy/planning to achieve overarching development priorities →
towards LDC graduation and SDG integration
Funding and financing opportunities:
• articulate how international cooperation — on policy, finance, technology —
helps accelerate climate action
• promote strategic investment of limited resources
• offer greater certainty for external support and investment, creating clear
investment roadmaps that fuse with nations’ own development priorities
Political benefits:
• showcase country’s potential for global leadership
• increase transparency and trust among nations
Anticipate future emissions, while using adaptation and resilience as guides:
• direction for near/medium-term action/planning, avoiding ‘lock-in’ and ‘lock-out’
• avoid ‘maladaptation’ and less effective responsive measures in implementation

9.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 9
30 January 2020Who has a long-term
strategy already?
14 countries have submitted to the
UNFCCC so far
Several other countries in progress (South
Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, Ethiopia, etc.)
It’s not just countries – businesses, cities,
development banks, etc. are also setting
long-term goals

10.
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30 January 2020
Principles to follow
- Transparency
- Inclusive and participatory
- Cross-cutting and coordinated
- Priority-driven and contextual
- Empowering and fair
- Good governance
- Meet both climate and socio-economic
objectives

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30 January 2020
What does it look like?
Long-term strategies may be presented in different
structures and can include:
• Long-term vision and goals
• Laying out the context
• Guiding principles
• Literature review; baseline projections/modelling
• Sectoral pathways
• Implementation plan (strategic actions,
measures, policies for every area of focus)
• Description of a learning process
• Description of stakeholder participation process

12.
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30 January 2020
LTS snippets
"Canada is committed to creating a
cleaner, more innovative economy that
reduces emissions and protects the
environment, while creating well-paying
jobs and promoting robust economic
growth"

13.
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30 January 2020
LTS snippets
“Mexico’s long-term vision is fourfold:
(1) Mexico experiences sustainable development and
low-emissions growth through an efficient management
of natural resources and the use of clean energy
resources.
(2) Mexico is a thriving, competitive, socially inclusive,
and globally responsible country.
(3) The Mexican population has rewarding and well-paid
jobs, and especially the most vulnerable population has
advancement opportunities.
(4) Mexico has a climate resilient society and
ecosystems, sustainable cities, and a green economy.”

14.
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30 January 2020
LTS snippets
“As the central goal of this LEDS, Fiji aims
to reach net zero carbon emissions by
2050 across all sectors of its economy”
Marshall Islands’ LTS aims "To set a clear
framework for progressing towards net
zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,
as well as transitioning to an economy and
society that is resilient and can adapt to
the inevitable impacts of climate change."

15.
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30 January 2020
LDC 2050 Vision
“for all Least Developed Countries to be
on climate-resilient development
pathways by 2030 and deliver net-zero
emissions by 2050 to ensure our
societies and ecosystems thrive”

16.
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30 January 2020
Discussion questions
• How do you see The Gambia benefiting
from developing a LTS?
• Where do you see your department/
organisation fit into this?
• What are some trade-offs/competing
priorities that may arise?
• Have you already undergone your own
long-term planning? What other policy
processes can feed into this process?

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30 January 2020
What’s the process?
Preparation
• Secure a political decision to initiate the process
• Build the right pathways team
• Map and engage with stakeholders
• Assess ‘readiness’ for pathway development
Implement
Develop
PrepDesign and Development
• Set the narrative/vision; define the LTS elements
• Collect and address inputs;
• develop and iterate scenarios
• Establish review and revision processes
• Socialise long term pathways
Implementation
• Analyse barriers and identify solutions
• Develop a pathway implementation plan

18.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 18
30 January 2020Why include
stakeholders?
• Wider ownership by a coalition: make people part of the long-term
transition
• Identify and help resolve issues: incorporate and address on the
ground challenges associated with long term policy
• Earn credibility: open up debates about the best choices to make by
when (transparency around the trade-offs associated with confronting
structural barriers to sustainable development)
• Mainstream and socialise: prompt wider groups to consider risks,
impacts, and adaptation into strategic and annual business plans
• Open the democratic space: create opportunities for citizens to
become more informed and involved in a truly participatory
democracy… a growing spirit of Gambian society in its new political
era

19.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 19
30 January 2020How much investment
does it take? An example
Timeline
(1-2 years)
Staff time
Funding
Quality (holistic long-
term planning vs
pulling together things
that already exist)
Scope (economy-wide
development policies)
Process (stakeholder
participation)

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30 January 2020
One size fits all?
• Marshall Islands had an international
engagement dialogue to draw international
support
• South Africa posted the draft LTS online for
easy stakeholder accessibility
• Ethiopia’s LTS driven by an inter-ministerial
committee
• Benin, Canada, Mexico and the US do not
include quantitative sectoral targets
• Modelling and scenario development are the
basis of Germany’s strategy
The process to develop and the structure of the LTS vary

21.
The Gambia Inception Meeting for LTS Vision Development 21
30 January 2020Regional and international
technical expertise
ORGANISATIONS / TECHNICAL PROVIDERS
+ 2050 Pathways Platform
+ Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)
+ United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
+ United Nations Economic and Social Commission
for Africa (UNECA)
+ International Union for Conservation of Nature –
West and Central Africa (IUCN)
+ Climate Analytics
+ World Resources Institute
+ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)
+ National statistics offices or bureaus
DONORS
+ Islamic Development Bank
+ African Development Bank
+ World Bank
+ Green Climate Fund (GCF)
+ European Commission
+ Germany (GIZ)
+ French Development Agency (AFD)
+ US (USAID)
NETWORKS
+ Africa Low Emission Development Strategies
Global Partnership (LEDS GP)
+ Climate Action Network
PRIVATE SECTOR
+ Business councils
+ Banking
+ Domestic and inter-island transport
services
+ Agriculture & Fisheries

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30 January 2020
Discussion questions
• What are the challenges/blockages and
opportunities/incentives for the LTS
development process?
• What are the activities The Gambia should
do to prepare its LTS vision?
• What other processes should align with LTS
development? NDC update? GCF country
readiness programme?
• Who should be involved in the process?
How?
• What’s a timeline for feasibly delivering the
vision?