Enhancing Resilience to Conflict
in Arab Countries through
Research and Arab Spatial 2.0
Joint IFAD-IFPRI-PIM Workshop
IFA...
Welcoming Remarks
Kevin Cleaver
IFAD
Associate Vice President
Overview:
Enhancing Resilience to Conflict
in Arab Countries
Clemens Breisinger
IFPRI
MENA Team Leader
IFAD-NENA and IFPRI-MENA:
Working Together for Impact
IFAD's unique mandate is improving rural
food security and nutritio...
IFAD-NENA and IFPRI-MENA:
Examples of Recent Collaboration
Trade liberalization in MENA may
benefit poor farmers (only) if...
Motivation and Objectives of Ongoing
Resilience to Conflict Project
 Conflict and development research has neglected rura...
Project Outputs So Far
 5 policy seminars and conference sessions in
Egypt, Rome, Yemen and Washington, DC
 Online infor...
Selected Project Impacts
So Far:
1. Public opinion: Research findings have
been cited by the int‘l and Arab
media, includi...
Preview - Three Key Messages:
Food insecurity is a major cause of conflict —
in Arab countries, more than in the rest of ...
Structure of Workshop Presentations
1. Arab Regional-level Study
What are the causes of conflict in Arab countries?
What a...
Arab Exceptionalism: The Role of
Food Security
Presented by Olivier Ecker (IFPRI)
Based on:
Does Food Security Matter for ...
Definitions
Conflict: ―Organized violence [is] the use or threat of physical force by
groups. [It] includes state actions ...
Causes and Drivers of Conflict
1. Motivation: grievances, discrimination
inequality, injustice
2. Opportunity: conflict as...
Motivation and Background
 The global food and financial crisis in 2008-09 hit Arab
countries particularly hard, increasi...
Methodology and Data

ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM
Results
 Economic growth reduces the risk of conflict worldwide.
 Countries with long peace periods in the past are less...
Conclusions
 In addition to economic growth, improving food security
is not only important for enhancing the poor‘s livin...
Policy and Program Implications (1)
 Policies and development programs/projects which
improve food security are likely to...
Policy and Program Implications (2)
 Effective long-run policies should focus on
economic growth that generates
 income ...
Country Case Studies:
The Pathways from Research
to Development
Presented by:
Olivier Ecker (IFPRI)
Perrihan Al-Riffai (IF...
Sudan: Climate Change, Natural
Resources, and Local Conflicts
Based on:
Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and
So...
Motivation and Background
 Climate change causes warmer (and more extreme)
weather that increases civil conflict globally...
Conflict and Extreme Weather

Source: Own presentation based on ACLED and UEA-CRU data.

SUDAN
Methodology and Data

SUDAN
Results
 Warmer weather increases the risk of local conflict in
Sudan substantially.
 The risk of conflict will increase...
Policy and Program Implications
 Resilience building strategies and interventions
need to be developed specifically for (...
Somalia: Drought, Livestock
Price Shocks, and Civil War
Based on:
Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel
Conflic...
Motivation and Background
 The number and length of warm weather spells in the Horn of Africa
have increased in recent ye...
Frequency of Conflict and Drought
100

Correlation of drought
incidence with
drought intensity: 0.14
drought length: 0.19
...
Methodology and Data

SOMALIA
Results
 More intense and longer-lasting droughts lead to
more violent conflicts in Somalia.
 Drought depresses local li...
Conclusions
 Drought fuels conflict in Somalia through livestock
price shocks.
 Policies and investments for drought imp...
Policy and Program Implications (1)
 Strategies for building resilience to conflict in
Somalia should aim at increasing t...
Policy and Program Implications (2)
 Formal insurance mechanisms and credit systems
as well as investments in livestock m...
Yemen: Building Resilience
through Policy and Programs
(Work in Progress)
Based on:
The Growth-Nutrition (Dis-)Connect in ...
Motivation and Background
 Yemen has experienced increasing conflict and food
insecurity, particularly in the course of t...
Methodology and Data
 Combination of various economic analysis tools and estimation
models including:
 Correlation and d...
Correlation of Conflict Exposure and
Food Insecurity
Households (%)

Conflict exposure

Food insecurity

60
ρ = 0.65

50
4...
Results
Non-hydrocarbon growth (%)

 The recession in 2011 affected
economic growth and food
security lastingly.
 Even i...
Preliminary Results
 IFAD‘s DPRDP aimed at improving food security and family incomes of
small farm households in additio...
Preliminary Conclusions
 Political instability and food insecurity are closely associated
in Yemen.
 Major policy reform...
Egypt: Food Security Policies in
Times of Transition
Based on:
Tackling Egypt’s Rising Food Insecurity in a Time of
Transi...
Motivation and Background (1)
Food subsidies are one of the most important policies for social
protection.

 Without food...
Motivation and Background (2)
Food insecurity has reached new
heights after a succession of crises
since 2007

The fiscal ...
Motivation and Background (3)
New (preliminary) results show that food subsidies contribute to the ―double
burden‖ of maln...
Results:
There is significant potential for improving the current food
subsidy system

Losses and leakages across the bal...
Policy Implications
 Following business as usual is not an option: Improved targeting
and complementary programs could re...
Discussion and Feedback
Launch of Arab Spatial 2.0
Presented by:
Perrihan Al-Riffai (IFPRI)
Daniel Duarte (SpatialDev)
Jean-Francois Trinh Tan (IF...
Overview:
Arab Spatial Development and
Food Security Atlas 2.0
What is Arab Spatial?
 Policy information tool and open data repository on food
security and development-related research...
Arab Spatial Conceptual
Framework

Source: www.arabspatial.org

ARAB SPATIAL
Arab Spatial 2.0:
Innovative Mapping Meets
Food Policy Analysis
Overview


Working with IFPRI



Arab Spatial ―technology stack‖



What is a Spatial?



Spatials as a platform
Working with IFPRI
Five Year Ongoing Partnership
 Work with IFPRI on a number of programs
including:
Arab Spatial
HarvestChoice
AgWater M...
Arab Spatial
―Technology Stack‖
Stack Components
Server stack
 Microsoft Windows

 SQL Server 2012 R2
 ESRI ArcGIS Server 10.1
 Code base on GitHub

C...
What is a Spatial?
What Makes a Spatial?
(technically speaking)
Geography + Information

=

Spatial
Arab Spatial
Spatials are Created from a Template

+

62
The ―Hotel‖ Metaphor

63
―Hotel Room‖

64
―Hotel Check-in‖

65
―Checking In‖ – Data Loading

Data entry

66
Uniform Treatment of Data or
―Hotel Guests‖
Workflow
Spatials as a Platform

69
The Spatial Platform
Reusability (code)

Scalability (Spatials)

Usability (user-friendly)

Extensibility (platform)

70
The Application
Identify Areas Vulnerable to Food
Insecurity

Child malnutrition rates are particularly high in Yemen and
Somalia.
Link to...
Investment in Infrastructure and
Access to Cities

 Display physical infrastructure that enables populations to have acce...
Closing Yield Gaps

Display the spatial distribution of wheat yields at the pixel level
(expressed in kg/hectares), and vi...
Food security and income per
capita

Using the GNI per capita layer, we can compare income per capita
between Arab countri...
Visualize indicators in a chart

The ―Analytics‖ functions allows users to visualize the selected
indicators in a bar, lin...
Compare Multiple Indicators

Users can visually analyze how long term changes in precipitation
relate to spatial patterns ...
Visualize Data at the Sub-National
Level

Arab Spatial allows users to analyze the spatial distribution of child
malnutrit...
Zoom-in to Specific Points of
Interest

The zoom-in function and World Imagery base layer to visualize
areas and points of...
A Valuable Tool for Targeting

Visualize whether interventions are situated in areas which are most
vulnerable to food ins...
Discussion and Feedback
Related Publications
Arab World
Research Products:
 Beyond the Arab awakening: Policies and Investments for Poverty
Reduction and Food Securit...
Yemen
Research Products:
 Managing Transition in Yemen: An Assessment of the Costs of
Conflict and Development Scenarios ...
Yemen
Policy Notes:
 Overview And Action Plan: Yemen national food security
strategy English | Arabic
 Health, nutrition...
Somalia
 Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia. IFPRI Discussion Paper
1243 Download

Sudan
 Local Warming and Violen...
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IFAD-IFPRI-PIM Workshop on Enhancing Resilience to Conflict in Arab Countries through Research and Arab Spatial 2.0

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Joint IFAD-IFPRI-PIM Workshop on Enhancing Resilience to Conflict in Arab Countries through Research and Arab Spatial 2.0, IFAD Headquarter, Rome, 16 January 2014

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  • Note Clemens: Put questions here and the answers later?
  • Differentiation between macro and micro food security.
  • Economic behavior is often used to explain people’s incentives to participate in violent conflict, following the seminal work by Collier and his coauthors on the causes of civil war (Collier and Hoeffler 1998, 2004; Collier and Sambanis 2002). Probably the most robust finding in the conflict literature is that slow economic growth and low per capita income contribute to civil conflict (Blattman and Miguel 2010). Economic opportunities such as expected income from being a fighter relative to ordinary labor market rates motivate people to participate in conflict rather than political and social grievances such as repression of specific social groups and societal inequality. Findings on the roles of ethnic or religious fractionalization (Easterly and Levine 1997; Fearon and Laitin 2003), natural resources dependency (Humphreys 2005; Brunnschweiler and Bulte 2009), and degree of democracy (Elbadawi and Sambanis 2002; Hegre et al. 2001) as drivers or preventers of civil conflict are inconsistent.
  • At the most it wold have increased by 9%
  • IFAD-IFPRI-PIM Workshop on Enhancing Resilience to Conflict in Arab Countries through Research and Arab Spatial 2.0

    1. 1. Enhancing Resilience to Conflict in Arab Countries through Research and Arab Spatial 2.0 Joint IFAD-IFPRI-PIM Workshop IFAD Headquarter, Rome; 16 January 2014
    2. 2. Welcoming Remarks Kevin Cleaver IFAD Associate Vice President
    3. 3. Overview: Enhancing Resilience to Conflict in Arab Countries Clemens Breisinger IFPRI MENA Team Leader
    4. 4. IFAD-NENA and IFPRI-MENA: Working Together for Impact IFAD's unique mandate is improving rural food security and nutrition, and enabling rural women and men to overcome poverty. IFPRI's mission is to provide researchbased policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition OVERVIEW
    5. 5. IFAD-NENA and IFPRI-MENA: Examples of Recent Collaboration Trade liberalization in MENA may benefit poor farmers (only) if:  effective extension and market information systems are in place  costs related to infrastructure and bureaucracy are reduced A food secure Arab world requires:  economic growth that better benefits the food insecure and poor  public spending that is more efficient and better targeted  data and information that supports evidence-based policy making OVERVIEW
    6. 6. Motivation and Objectives of Ongoing Resilience to Conflict Project  Conflict and development research has neglected rural development, food security and the Arab world (incl. in the WDR 2011).  To address this gap, IFAD issued a call for proposals and contracted IFPRI in 2012. CGIAR-PIM is co-financing.  Project objectives are identifying:  The linkages between conflict, rural development, and food security in Arab countries  Which policies and interventions may enhance resilience to conflicts  How better information can lead to better lives  Project includes policy communication products and tools, capacity building, and research. OVERVIEW
    7. 7. Project Outputs So Far  5 policy seminars and conference sessions in Egypt, Rome, Yemen and Washington, DC  Online information tool Arab Spatial 1.0 launched in February 2013  3 multi-day trainings workshops at CAPMAS in Egypt (2) and MOPIC (Economic Forecasting Unit) in Yemen (1)  46 presentations at international conferences/workshops (33) and at development partners‘ offices and universities (13)  17 papers and articles, incl. 5 journal papers, 3 book chapters, 5 IFPRI Discussion Papers, 1 IFPRI Policy Note, and 3 IFPRI magazines OVERVIEW
    8. 8. Selected Project Impacts So Far: 1. Public opinion: Research findings have been cited by the int‘l and Arab media, including the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times 2. Egypt: Our joint work with CAPMAS and WFP has contributed to a new open-data initiative, a revision of the HIECS survey, and improved analytical capacity 3. Yemen: Analysis is key part of the Joint Social and Economic Assessment (by the World Bank, UN, EU, and IsDB), basis for donors‘ US$ 8bn pledge (Riyadh, Sept. 5, 2012) to support postconflict transition OVERVIEW
    9. 9. Preview - Three Key Messages: Food insecurity is a major cause of conflict — in Arab countries, more than in the rest of the world. Thus, policies, programs, and projects that improve food security are likely to also reduce conflict. Improving policies and interventions will require more and better data and information. OVERVIEW
    10. 10. Structure of Workshop Presentations 1. Arab Regional-level Study What are the causes of conflict in Arab countries? What are key policies for enhancing resilience to conflict? 2. Country Case Studies Sudan: Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Local Conflicts Somalia: Drought, Livestock Price Shocks, and Civil War Yemen: Building Resilience through Policy and Programs Egypt: Food Security Policies in Times of Transitions 3. Arab Spatial Policy information tool and open data repository: exploring issues and finding cross-country patterns Policy and planning tool: displaying patterns based on research OVERVIEW
    11. 11. Arab Exceptionalism: The Role of Food Security Presented by Olivier Ecker (IFPRI) Based on: Does Food Security Matter for Transition in Arab Countries? Jean-Francois Maystadt, Jean-Francois Trinh Tan, Clemens Breisinger (Forthcoming in Food Policy, IFPRI Discussion Paper 1196)
    12. 12. Definitions Conflict: ―Organized violence [is] the use or threat of physical force by groups. [It] includes state actions against other states or against civilians, civil wars, electoral violence between opposing sides, communal conflicts based on regional, ethnic, religious or other group identities or competing economic interests, gang-based violence and organized crime and international nonstate armed movements with ideological aims‖ (World Bank 2011). ―Building resilience means helping people, communities, countries, and global institutions prevent, anticipate, prepare for, cope with, and recover from shocks and not only bounce back to where they were before the shocks occurred, but become even better‐off‖ (IFPRI 2020 policy consultation). Food security is a situation ―when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life‖ (FAO 1996). ―Poverty is pronounced deprivation in well-being […]. It includes low incomes and the inability to acquire the basic goods and services necessary for survival with dignity‖ (World Bank 2012, adapted from Haughton and Khandker 2009). EVIDENCE FROM RESEARCH
    13. 13. Causes and Drivers of Conflict 1. Motivation: grievances, discrimination inequality, injustice 2. Opportunity: conflict as means of (economic) benefit  opportunity costs of conflict participation relative to income from ordinary activities 3. Polity: capacity of the state to promote inclusion or to repress contestation/ uprisings EVIDENCE FROM RESEARCH
    14. 14. Motivation and Background  The global food and financial crisis in 2008-09 hit Arab countries particularly hard, increasing food insecurity substantially.  Food insecurity has been identified as one of the causes of violent conflicts worldwide (Brinkman & Hendrix 2011; Pinstrup-Andersen & Shimokawa 2008).  Rising food insecurity has possibly contributed to triggering civil unrests leading to the ‗Arab Awakening‘ in 2010-11 (Breisinger et al. 2011, 2012).  However, food insecurity also increased in other world regions in recent years, without sparking major uprisings.  Are the effects of food insecurity on conflict exceptionally strong in the Arab World?  If so, what are the implications for the transition process? ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM
    15. 15. Methodology and Data ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM
    16. 16. Results  Economic growth reduces the risk of conflict worldwide.  Countries with long peace periods in the past are less prone to civil conflict.  There is an Arab exceptionalism in the relevance of food security as cause of conflict.  High food prices increase the risk of conflict through deteriorating food security (which, in turn, reduces people‘s resistance to engage in conflict).  Food security at both the national and the household level is significantly more important for conflict prevention in Arab countries than in the rest of the world. ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM
    17. 17. Conclusions  In addition to economic growth, improving food security is not only important for enhancing the poor‘s living conditions, it is also critical for building resilience to conflict—in Arab countries, more than in the rest of the world.  The high vulnerability of Arab countries to global food price variations may explain the exceptionally strong link between food insecurity and the risk of conflict.  Since countries in political transition are at increased risk of sliding into conflict, improving food security is particularly important for supporting peaceful transitions. ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM
    18. 18. Policy and Program Implications (1)  Policies and development programs/projects which improve food security are likely to significantly reduce the risk of conflict in Arab countries (as a positive externality).  Effective short-run policies to protect people against excessive food price volatility include  public grain reserves,  social safety nets, and  emergency assistance. ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM
    19. 19. Policy and Program Implications (2)  Effective long-run policies should focus on economic growth that generates  income for the poor and  foreign exchange revenues for financing food imports.  Development programs/projects should aim at  farm and off-farm income generation and employment (particularly for young male adults),  infrastructural investments, and  health and nutrition interventions.
    20. 20. Country Case Studies: The Pathways from Research to Development Presented by: Olivier Ecker (IFPRI) Perrihan Al-Riffai (IFPRI)
    21. 21. Sudan: Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Local Conflicts Based on: Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan Jean-Francois Maystadt, Margherita Calderone, Liangzhi You (Rev. & Res. to PNAS, IFPRI Discussion Paper 1276)
    22. 22. Motivation and Background  Climate change causes warmer (and more extreme) weather that increases civil conflict globally (Hsiang et al. 2013).  Is the relationship of warming and conflict also valid at the local level and over a short time period?  If so, what are the potential factors that drive this relationship in Sudan?  Sudan has experienced civil war/instability over the last two decades, where competition over natural resources—including agricultural resources—has triggered violent conflicts frequently. SUDAN
    23. 23. Conflict and Extreme Weather Source: Own presentation based on ACLED and UEA-CRU data. SUDAN
    24. 24. Methodology and Data SUDAN
    25. 25. Results  Warmer weather increases the risk of local conflict in Sudan substantially.  The risk of conflict will increase by an estimated 20-30 percent until 2030, depending on the climate change scenario assumed.  (Agro)pastoralist areas are particularly vulnerable.  The effects are amplified in areas with high livestock density and where pastoralists and agropastoralists reside and compete over the same resources.  Competition over water seems to be one of the main drivers of conflict. SUDAN
    26. 26. Policy and Program Implications  Resilience building strategies and interventions need to be developed specifically for (agro)pastoral livelihoods, given the unique challenges associated with the (semi)nomadic lifestyle.  Critical components include  investments in water supply (and irrigation) infrastructure,  measures to improve water (and pasture) resource management, and  early warning systems for herders. SUDAN
    27. 27. Somalia: Drought, Livestock Price Shocks, and Civil War Based on: Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks? Jean-Francois Maystadt, Olivier Ecker (Forthcoming in AJAE, IFPRI Discussion Paper 1243)
    28. 28. Motivation and Background  The number and length of warm weather spells in the Horn of Africa have increased in recent years, causing more and more intense droughts.  Somalia experienced its most destructive drought in 2011, with 4m people in need of emergency assistance at its peak.  Somalia has also been shaken by an ongoing civil war since 1991, where violent disputes have become more frequent recently.  Is there a causal relationship between drought and civil war in Somalia?  If so, what makes people to engage in violent conflict that is influenced by the weather?  Given the importance of the livestock sector as source of income, drought-caused livestock price shocks may be the factor of transmission. SOMALIA
    29. 29. Frequency of Conflict and Drought 100 Correlation of drought incidence with drought intensity: 0.14 drought length: 0.19 Number of violent conflict events 80 60 40 20 0 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 Temperature anomaly 2006 2007 2008 2009 40 Number of consecutive drought months 1.5 30 Drought intensity Drought length 1 20 0.5 10 0 0 -0.5 -10 -1 -20 -1.5 -30 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Own presentation based ACLED and UEA-CRU data. SOMALIA
    30. 30. Methodology and Data SOMALIA
    31. 31. Results  More intense and longer-lasting droughts lead to more violent conflicts in Somalia.  Drought depresses local livestock prices that reduces household incomes and therewith enhances the risk of conflict.  Climate change may increase the likelihood of conflict by 50-56%. Reduced-form regression: Conflict Two-stage regression, first: Cattle price Two-stage regression, second: Conflict Source: Own presentation based on own estimates. SOMALIA
    32. 32. Conclusions  Drought fuels conflict in Somalia through livestock price shocks.  Policies and investments for drought impact mitigation and resilience building are critical for both climate change adaptation and conflict prevention.  The costs of inaction go beyond the immediate economic and environmental costs of climate change and may involve substantial costs from conflict intensification.  Economic well-being is a key determinant of individual conflict participation, so that poverty alleviation is an effective strategy for conflict mitigation. SOMALIA
    33. 33. Policy and Program Implications (1)  Strategies for building resilience to conflict in Somalia should aim at increasing the opportunity costs of conflict participation through:  fostering sustainable growth in the livestock sector,  providing alternative income earning opportunities, and  establishing social safety nets. SOMALIA
    34. 34. Policy and Program Implications (2)  Formal insurance mechanisms and credit systems as well as investments in livestock marketing and infrastructure can help to smooth herd destocking and to realize fast restocking.  Financial and technical support is needed to  adapt herds toward more drought-resilient and more fast-marketable animals and  prevent overuse of rangeland resources. SOMALIA
    35. 35. Yemen: Building Resilience through Policy and Programs (Work in Progress) Based on: The Growth-Nutrition (Dis-)Connect in Yemen: A New Macro-Micro Modeling Approach Clemens Breisinger, Olivier Ecker (Under Revision for Economic Modelling) Breaking the Vicious Cycle of Conflict and Food Insecurity and Yemen Olivier Ecker (In progress)
    36. 36. Motivation and Background  Yemen has experienced increasing conflict and food insecurity, particularly in the course of the ‗Arab Awakening‘.  Starting with the formation of the unity government in early 2012, there is new hope for political and economic transformation leading to stability and rising living standards.  To tackle food insecurity, Yemen has a comprehensive strategy—the National Food Security Strategy (NFSS)—since 2010 that calls for implementation.  What is the association of political instability and food insecurity, and what are the outcomes for people’s nutrition?  Assuming that the key economic policies proposed in the NFSS were implemented, what is the likely impact on food security?  What is the role of IFAD development programs? YEMEN
    37. 37. Methodology and Data  Combination of various economic analysis tools and estimation models including:  Correlation and descriptive analyses  LS regression models with various specifications  Dynamic CGE model  Set of recent household surveys including:  Gallup Poll  UNICEF Pilot Social Protection Monitoring Survey (PSPMS) 2011/12  Household Budget Survey (HBS) 2005-06  Results and Impact Management System (RIMS) surveys of IFAD‘s Dhamar Participatory Rural Development Project (DPRDP) YEMEN
    38. 38. Correlation of Conflict Exposure and Food Insecurity Households (%) Conflict exposure Food insecurity 60 ρ = 0.65 50 40 30 20 10 0 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 Calendar week 2011-12 2 6 Source: Own estimation based on UNICEF PSPM survey data. Note: The presented indicators are based on the following questions and answers: Conflict exposure: ―During the past two weeks has any child become afraid of playing outside?‖ – ―Yes.‖ Food insecurity: ―During the past two weeks have you or any family member experienced going to bed hungry due to lack of food?‖ – ―Yes.‖ YEMEN
    39. 39. Results Non-hydrocarbon growth (%)  The recession in 2011 affected economic growth and food security lastingly.  Even if the economy comes back to pre-crisis growth rates, it takes at least five years to make up the loss in output.  Reversing the trend of increasing food insecurity is challenging— even more so for chronic malnutrition. Calorie deficiency Child stunting Slow transition -0.078 -0.175 0.040 0.011 0 -5 -10 Growth semi-elasticities Source: Own estimations based on HBS 2005-06 data and national statistics. Slow transition Accelerated transition Stagnation Prevalence of calorie deficiency (%) 40 35 -0.032 Stagnation 5 -0.011 Accelerated transition 10 30 25 Slow transition Accelerated transition Stagnation Baseline (no uprising) 2015 YEMEN
    40. 40. Preliminary Results  IFAD‘s DPRDP aimed at improving food security and family incomes of small farm households in addition to upgrading community infrastructure.  Against the national trend, child malnutrition improved in the project site.  In 2012, most beneficiary households (90%) consider their community and the surrounding Sample Survey (period) Wasting Underweight communities as Rural Yemen 2005 HBS (4/2005 - 3/2006) 13.4 38.4 peaceful. 2012 NSPMS, R1 (10-12/2012) 17.5 44.4  However, further Average annual change analyses and more Percentage points 0.6 0.9 data are needed for Percent 3.9 2.1 Dhamar Participatory Rural Development Project (DPRDP) assessing the RIMS (11/2006) 20.3 53.6 project impact more 2006 2012 RIMS (11/2012) 11.7 41.1 precisely. Average annual change Percentage points Percent -1.4 -8.7 -2.1 -4.3 Source: Own estimations based on listed surveys and IPC-IG et al. (2013). YEMEN
    41. 41. Preliminary Conclusions  Political instability and food insecurity are closely associated in Yemen.  Major policy reforms—including the implementation of the National Food Security Strategy—are necessary to bring Yemen back to pre-crisis achievements and further on a development path.  Development programs/projects that aim at building resilience through improving food security and rural development more broadly (such as by IFAD) have high potential to also contribute to prevent civil conflict in Yemen.  More work (and new data) are needed (and forthcoming) to evaluate the contribution of IFAD‘s programs/projects to conflict prevention. YEMEN
    42. 42. Egypt: Food Security Policies in Times of Transition Based on: Tackling Egypt’s Rising Food Insecurity in a Time of Transition Clemens Breisinger, Riham Abuismail, Noura Abdelwahab, Perrihan Al-Riffai, Dina Armanious, Olivier Ecker, Heba ElLaithy, Jane Waite, Alaa Zohery (Joint IFPRI-WFP-CAPMAS Country Policy Note)
    43. 43. Motivation and Background (1) Food subsidies are one of the most important policies for social protection.  Without food subsidies, national poverty may have increased from 25% to about 34%. Because:  Subsidized food accounts for nearly 20% of poor households‘ food expenditure  Subsidized baladi bread accounts for 71% of bread consumed by poor households. EGYPT
    44. 44. Motivation and Background (2) Food insecurity has reached new heights after a succession of crises since 2007 The fiscal deficit in Egypt is above 10 percent of GDP and rising Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. http://www.ifpri.org/gfpr/2012/regional-developments EGYPT
    45. 45. Motivation and Background (3) New (preliminary) results show that food subsidies contribute to the ―double burden‖ of malnutrition The double burden of malnutrition is mostly prevalent in Egypt and Iraq Source: Ecker, et al. WFP/CAPMAS/IFPRI Workshop “Tackling Food Security and Nutrition in Egypt: Challenges and Opportunities”, Cairo, 21 May 2013 EGYPT
    46. 46. Results: There is significant potential for improving the current food subsidy system Losses and leakages across the baladi bread supply chain are estimated at 30 percent There is significant scope for improving the targeting:  The ration card system covers 73 percent of nonpoor households  But it excludes 19 percent of the most vulnerable households! Increased poverty has resulted in an over reliance on cheap and calorie-dense foods, including subsidized commodities EGYPT
    47. 47. Policy Implications  Following business as usual is not an option: Improved targeting and complementary programs could reduce costs and improve food security  Lessons from other countries‘ experiences and Egypt‘s previous subsidy reform attempts stress the importance of:  Restructuring and integrating the subsidy system within a broader national strategy of development and food security for success  Building credibility by promoting transparency of policies and engaging in discussion with the people  Creating an understanding  Managing expectations  Establishing a robust monitoring and evaluation system for decision making, empowering policymakers to learn and become versatile during any reform process. EGYPT
    48. 48. Discussion and Feedback
    49. 49. Launch of Arab Spatial 2.0 Presented by: Perrihan Al-Riffai (IFPRI) Daniel Duarte (SpatialDev) Jean-Francois Trinh Tan (IFPRI)
    50. 50. Overview: Arab Spatial Development and Food Security Atlas 2.0
    51. 51. What is Arab Spatial?  Policy information tool and open data repository on food security and development-related research in the Arab world  Over 200 indicators national, subnational, and pixel level over time. New Features  A gallery of downloadable and pre-made graphs about Arab nations‘ development and food security  Customized analytical tools that allow users to compare and explore data by indicators, regions, year, and download the results  New multi-layer maps that dynamically track IFAD development projects geographically in the context of more than 200 food security and development indicators; and  Enhanced user experience, with simpler navigation and greater interactivity. ARAB SPATIAL
    52. 52. Arab Spatial Conceptual Framework Source: www.arabspatial.org ARAB SPATIAL
    53. 53. Arab Spatial 2.0: Innovative Mapping Meets Food Policy Analysis
    54. 54. Overview  Working with IFPRI  Arab Spatial ―technology stack‖  What is a Spatial?  Spatials as a platform
    55. 55. Working with IFPRI
    56. 56. Five Year Ongoing Partnership  Work with IFPRI on a number of programs including: Arab Spatial HarvestChoice AgWater Management Crop Life CRP Mapper  Members of the CGIAR-CSI
    57. 57. Arab Spatial ―Technology Stack‖
    58. 58. Stack Components Server stack  Microsoft Windows  SQL Server 2012 R2  ESRI ArcGIS Server 10.1  Code base on GitHub Client stack  ESRI JavaScript API  D3 and jQuery  HTML5 and CSS3
    59. 59. What is a Spatial?
    60. 60. What Makes a Spatial? (technically speaking) Geography + Information = Spatial
    61. 61. Arab Spatial
    62. 62. Spatials are Created from a Template + 62
    63. 63. The ―Hotel‖ Metaphor 63
    64. 64. ―Hotel Room‖ 64
    65. 65. ―Hotel Check-in‖ 65
    66. 66. ―Checking In‖ – Data Loading Data entry 66
    67. 67. Uniform Treatment of Data or ―Hotel Guests‖
    68. 68. Workflow
    69. 69. Spatials as a Platform 69
    70. 70. The Spatial Platform Reusability (code) Scalability (Spatials) Usability (user-friendly) Extensibility (platform) 70
    71. 71. The Application
    72. 72. Identify Areas Vulnerable to Food Insecurity Child malnutrition rates are particularly high in Yemen and Somalia. Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Stunting, Country|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the ―Latest‖ function on the timeline)
    73. 73. Investment in Infrastructure and Access to Cities  Display physical infrastructure that enables populations to have access to local and international food markets such as ports, airports, railroads, grain storage facilities. Link to left map: light gray http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Railroads&ll=Grain storages&ll=Ports&ll=Airports&bm=World  Display access to small cities (travel time expressed in hours). Link to right map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Access to small cities&bm=World imagery
    74. 74. Closing Yield Gaps Display the spatial distribution of wheat yields at the pixel level (expressed in kg/hectares), and visualize in detail which areas have the highest and lowest wheat yields across the region. Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Yield - wheat&bm=World light gray
    75. 75. Food security and income per capita Using the GNI per capita layer, we can compare income per capita between Arab countries. Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=GNI per capita|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the ―Latest‖ function on the timeline)
    76. 76. Visualize indicators in a chart The ―Analytics‖ functions allows users to visualize the selected indicators in a bar, line or scatter chart. Link to chart: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=GNI per capita|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the ―Analytics‖ function at the bottom of the screen)
    77. 77. Compare Multiple Indicators Users can visually analyze how long term changes in precipitation relate to spatial patterns of conflict in Sudan and Somalia. Link to maps: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Violent conflicts, 1997 - 2010&ll=Precipitation variability&bm=World light gray
    78. 78. Visualize Data at the Sub-National Level Arab Spatial allows users to analyze the spatial distribution of child malnutrition at the sub-national level, and target more specifically which areas of the country are most vulnerable, and expose disparities between governorates. Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Stunting, Governorate|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the ―Latest‖ function on the timeline)
    79. 79. Zoom-in to Specific Points of Interest The zoom-in function and World Imagery base layer to visualize areas and points of interest in fine detail. Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Grain storages&bm=World imagery
    80. 80. A Valuable Tool for Targeting Visualize whether interventions are situated in areas which are most vulnerable to food insecurity. Link to left map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Ongoing IFAD development projects&ll=Stunting, Governorate|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the ―Latest‖ function on the timeline) Link to right map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Ongoing IFAD development projects&ll=Yield sorghum&bm=World imagery
    81. 81. Discussion and Feedback
    82. 82. Related Publications
    83. 83. Arab World Research Products:  Beyond the Arab awakening: Policies and Investments for Poverty Reduction and Food Security, IFPRI Food Policy Report. English | Arabic  Does Food Security Matter for Transition in Arab Countries? IFPRI Discussion Paper 1196 Download  The Food Security System: A New Conceptual Framework. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1166 Download  Food Security and Economic Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Current State and Future Perspectives. IFPRI Discussion Paper 0985 Download  Policy Choices on the Ground. IFPRI 2012 Global Food Policy Report Download  Regional Developments: Food policy taking shape at the local level. IFPRI 2011 Global Food Policy Report Download Knowledge Products:  Arab Spatial Development and Food Security Atlas: www.arabspatial.org PUBLICATIONS
    84. 84. Yemen Research Products:  Managing Transition in Yemen: An Assessment of the Costs of Conflict and Development Scenarios for the Future. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1210 English | Arabic  Macroeconomic and Social Impact Analysis of the 2011 Crisis in Yemen and Alternative Transition Scenarios in Joint Social and Economic Impact Assessment for the Republic of Yemen. Led by World Bank Download  Climate Change and Floods in Yemen: Impacts on Food Security and Options for Adaptation. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1139 Download  Food as the Basis for Development and Security: A Strategy for Yemen. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1036 English | Press Release  Assessing food security in Yemen: An innovative integrated, crosssector, and multilevel approach. IFPRI Discussion Paper 0982 Download  Petroleum subsidies in Yemen: Leveraging reform for development. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1071 Download PUBLICATIONS
    85. 85. Yemen Policy Notes:  Overview And Action Plan: Yemen national food security strategy English | Arabic  Health, nutrition, and risk management: Yemen national food security strategy English | Arabic  Qat, water, and agricultural development: Yemen national food security strategy English | Arabic  Petroleum Subsidy Reform and Food Security: Yemen national food security strategy English | Arabic Knowledge Products: • Mapping Yemen: Interactive Atlas Provides Unique Insights into Food Security (Available in CD version more information)
    86. 86. Somalia  Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1243 Download Sudan  Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1276 Download Egypt  Tackling Egypt’s Rising Food Insecurity. Joint IFPRI-WFP Country Policy Note English | Arabic Syria  Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1091 Download PUBLICATIONS

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