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18 baker enahoro_synthesis

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18 baker enahoro_synthesis

  1. 1. Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains Bringing the research to bear on Impact Assessment, Policy Analysis and Advocacy for development Synthesis session Derek Baker and Dolapo Enahoro 5-6 November 2013, Accra, Ghana
  2. 2. Outline 1. Conference objectives 2. Material presented 3. Messages on livestock-for development 4. Messages passed between model builders and model users 5. Conclusions 6. Next steps
  3. 3. Goals of conference 1. To establish strong and functional linkages between livestock value chain and impact analysis on the one hand, and sectoral, general equilibrium, and other economic modeling on the other. 2. To identify and advocate pro-poor livestock policy as it emerges from existing analysis.
  4. 4. Livestock in development 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Growing demand Livestock-poverty nexus Resource and environment user Livestock’s actual and potential development contribution Livestock overlooked by policy objectives/interventions 6. Connections to markets can be obscure, with many non-price drivers 7. Markets may be incomplete: • Whole chain approaches (vertical) • Collective action (horizontal) approaches • Household modeling is complex 8. African livestock are increasingly in mixed systems, with implications for risk mitigation 9. Opportunities for gender equity 10.Export trade remains an elusive goal, dev. country trade integration has been little studied/poorly addressed in models 11.For all the above, we are short on data 12.A call for networks amongst agents, researchers and policy makers
  5. 5. 10 problems… 1 There is a gap between household analysis and models of the higher-level economy 2 Livestock analysis has too much focus on productivity and not enough on profitability and incomes 3 No-one knows what the returns to a government investment in livestock are 4 Policymakers are less informed about livestock than about crops 5 All stages of the policy cycle are poorly informed about livestock 6 Livestock's market linkages and producer organisations lack commitment and sustainability 7 Available credit is not suited to livestock producers 8 Livestock data and information are unsuited to its uses by public and private sector 9 There is too little consideration given to livestock/environment interactions 10 Training and education is lacking for livestock producers
  6. 6. Session 1 synthesis – VCs and smallholder competitiveness Solution 1) Collective action 2) Diversification 3) Development of feed systems and market, VA 4) Develop the marketing channels 5) Early warning and surveillance systems 6) Improving infrastructure 7) Crop-livestock integration 8) Preserving livestock mobility 9) Upgrading and modernization of informal sector to reduce transaction costs 10) Distribution of crossbred technology 11) Land enclosures for grazing 12) Regional trade integration 13) Redistribution of VA Policy changes needed 1) Price formation mechanisms 2) Resource tenure 3) Diverse export markets 4) Product demand stimulation 5) Collective action 6) Vertical platforms and arrangements 7) Breeding policy for resilience 8) Develop missing markets 9) Harmonisation of trade restrictions 10) Securing input supply 11) Price regulation 12) Disease control 13) Education of farmers 14) Expansion of animal health facilities 15) Cold-chain development 16) Regional approach to drought mitigation 17) Alternative mechanisms for vet service provision Who needs to act 1) Local and national government 2) Farmers 3) Local governments 4) Private sector… 5) Market oriented organizations Information and analysis 1) Product/quality standards 2) Consumer preferences 3) Efficiency in processing 4) Share of price and other VC performance measures 5) Information platforms 6) assessment of interventions and policies: a. ex ante b. ex post 7) Climate/weather forecast 8) Market information (output and input) 9) Disease information 10) Analysis of: a. marketing channel options/choice b. collective action options c. public/private partnership d. feed input alternatives related to the drought cycles e. VC interventions f. Platforms g. Financing options 11) Production costs, transaction costs, added value, threats (land, feed market, sanitary, climate), and prices 12) Animal inventory/census 13) WTP for access to resources 14) Identification of disease priorities Who needs to act 1) Extension and supporting agencies 2) Climate specialists Producer groups 3) Govt 4) NGOs 5) Private sector 6) Aid actors 7) Input and service providers 8) Researchers 9) Joint ventures amongst VC actors.
  7. 7. Session 2 synthesis – gender and VCs Solution 1) Whole-chain package of interventions: a. Groups b. Training c. Capacity building d. Service provision e. Marketing 2) Credit 3) Starter packs 4) Address to women’s issues via women’s groups, and women’s networks 5) Recognition of need to link women to markets 6) Inclusion of women in policy dialogues Policy changes needed Who needs to act 1) Credit to be 1) Government credit channelled to women agencies 2) Land tenure change to 2) Legal property be more inclusive of registers women 3) Veterinary schools 3) Interventions to address households rather than landbased identifiers 4) Women’s asset ownership identified and protected 5) Empowerment of women through training, especially in livestock systems and animal health 6) Training of women guides Information and analysis 1) Identify Impact pathway for gender. 2) Understand entry points for genderoriented interventions 3) Use appropriate gender-sensitive data 4) Better methods for measurement of income and other changes for women 5) Analysis of women’s benefits from livestock, especially after intensification 6) Methodologies for data collection on gender 7) Data sharing 8) Gender-related HH and VC performance measures 9) Evaluation of adherence to Maputo declaration under the CAADP, on gender Who needs to act 1) Research and data networks
  8. 8. Session 3 synthesis – Regional LS development and policy Solution 1) Improved data reaching whole value chain definitions and standardisation quality and timeliness coverage of informal trade more focus on trade details 2) Data sharing 3) Analysis of impact of trade barriers/liberalisation 4) Co-ordinated livestock policy including breeding and feeding 5) Apply and use global standards 6) Engage private sector, in trade organisations 7) Harmonised performance measures Policy changes needed 1) Capacity development 2) Knowledge transfer 3) Promotion of intraregional trade 4) Harmonisation of regional policies 5) Focus on less sophisticated markets 6) Strengthen data collection/processin g institutions at national and regional level 7) A branding policy, accompanied by quality management Who needs to act 1) Universities 2) Research institutes 3) Farmer associations 4) Dept Vet Services 5) Regional bodies & organisation 6) Government 7) National organisations 8) On trade engagement: full range of partners 9) Regional Economic Communities/ policy branches 10) Public-private partnerships Information and analysis 1) Methods development 2) Analysis of investment opportunities 3) Measurement of hidden costs of exports to high value markets 4) Identification of key factors affecting competitiveness 5) Quantify production and trade information in relevant countries 6) Make information available 7) Simulation of trade scenarios 8) Information on producing and processing technologies in the region 9) Measurement of transaction costs Who needs to act 1) Researchers 2) Networks 3) Data generators 4) Line Ministries 5) Universities 6) Trade and industry organisations
  9. 9. Sessions 4 and 5 synthesis – modeling initiatives for policy 1. The presentations 3. The answers • Detail of households (credit model) • Audience may be in research rather than • Detail of inter-sectoral interactions (CGE policy and private sector model) • Need for more modeler-user-non-user • Detail of inter-market interactions + communications production system characteristics • Inclusion of new sectors/countries/problems (multimarket model) requires new data and its compilation • Physical/Landscape environment upward • There is purpose-specificity (e.g. disease vs aggregation climate change) and interactions are difficult • Physical//climate change on supply side to introduce. • 2. The questions • Who cares? • • Who evaluates? • Can you include environment? • Can you do investment analysis? • • Can you examine the effect of timing/sequencing of investments on investment result? • Are household decisions represented at• aggregate? • Can you model intermediate markets? • • Can you predict the future? Investment analysis at aggregate level may not match household level Incomplete markets can be handled at HH level but not by models relying on market simulation solutions HH decisions not invoked… (aggregation: multiple livestock species; separability: nature of HH; ABM?; demand is simplistic) Intermediate VC actors largely exogenous: IMPACT3 has “activities”. There is a lot of work in progress (incl. micro-macro), much of it not presented here.
  10. 10. Conclusions 1. Livestock’s place in economies and development processes is widely acknowledged, largely underestimated… and correcting this is a work in progress 2. Representation of production and consumption is strong 3. Linkage to land and landscapes is strong 4. Dev. country competitiveness and trade/trade integration has not yet been modeled 5. Incomplete markets present difficulties for modeling: e.g. land tenure. 6. Production-system approach has served well 7. Contradictions persist: mobility/crop-livestock; sales vs risk management; formalisation of markets. 8. Many perceived policy needs surround VC intermediaries: not generally modelled 9. Great demand for tools and data for ex ante and ex post analysis 10. Perceived need for capacity building, but few ways of modeling the changes 11. Little capacity to measure VC performance: financial, environmental, gender, equity 12. Improvement/extension of models relies on the thing that is most lacking, and most poorly supported – data 13. Whole-chain interventions are widely advocated but little modeled 14. Collective action is widely advocated, based on transaction costs: which generally are not being measured nor used in models
  11. 11. Next steps Special Issue of journal (decision due Nov 2013) (May 2014) Other journal output (May 2014) Presentations on PIM website (Nov 2013) Report with recommendations to PIM modeling effort for livestock (Dec 2013) Formulation of PIM IA and M&E tools (2014) Contr. to PIM VC performance measures (2014) Supply of gender performance measures and gender variables (2014) Supply of transactions costs for Vertical and Horizontal organisation (2014) Feedback to BMGF’s Livestock Data initiative (2013) Commence liaison and communication between ILRI, livestock modeling initiatives, and others (now) And…

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