10 kuhlgatz micro_data_cge_livestock

562 views

Published on

Published in: Business, News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
562
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

10 kuhlgatz micro_data_cge_livestock

  1. 1. Linking household data to agricultural models with a focus on livestock in Africa Christian H. Kuhlgatz, Aída González Mellado , Petra Salamon Thünen Institute of Market Analysis Accra Seite 0 Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Datum Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa 6 November 2013
  2. 2. Development of Data and Tools for Livestock Policy: How can the TI contribute? • Department of Farm Economics  • Department of Market Analysis • What we do: Policy support and research on development of agricultural markets & trade policy • Prominent tools: CGE and partial equilibrium models GTAP, MAGNET, AGMEMOD,… • Analyzed policy effects on EU - e.g.: Trade liberalization, ban on EU soybean imports, …  Application of these models to African countries? Seite 1 Datum Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  3. 3. AGMEMOD goes Africa •Capacity building training and AGMEMOD country model implementation in Braunschweig, June 2013 for • Three African researchers interested in food trend analysis • supported by Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) •Reduced set of 5 crop markets for the start • Ethiopia with wheat, corn, sorghum, teff, and haricot beans • Kenya with wheat, corn, sorghum, haricot beans, sweet potatoes • Uganda with corn, sorghum, cassava, haricot beans, and sweet potatoes • Baseline finished, working on scenarios Seite 2 Datum Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  4. 4. Modeling livestock: specific issues • Livestock is a long term investment • Dynamic modeling approach needed • Animals are used for multiple purposes • Animal products for income and own consumption • complex crop-livestock interactions (feed as input, manure and draft power as output) • Savings, transport services,…  To avoid capturing net effects: Relevant economic linkages and effects have to be incorporated into the model • Capture heterogeneous effects on different households (spatially, income differences, rural-urban, …) Seite 3 Datum Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  5. 5. CGE or PE models • CGE models provide a consistent and comprehensive representation of the economy and world trade • Partial equilibrium: more detailed markets, flexible in capturing sector policies • Objective: measure the effect of livestock activities for the economy • Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models •  allow feedback between livestock sector and other parts of the economy • CGE models use ex ante simulations, and are calibrated by employing a Social Account Matrix (SAM) • SAM: a snapshot of the country’s economy at a specific year Seite 4 Datum Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  6. 6. SAM data requirement for the country considered… Seite 5 Datum Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  7. 7. Approaches to integrate micro-level data into CGE • Top down approach: Macro-Micro-Simulation • • • • • Simulations with parameters for representative householdcategories derived from HH-level After Simulation: Changes in consumption and prices are passed down to corresponding HHs in the survey. Per capita expenditure and poverty measures are recalculated No feedback from households to macro level Bottom up approach • • Seite 6 Datum Include all households into the CGE model Time-consuming procedure: harmonize data of micro and macro level Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  8. 8. Sources for livestock data in Africa • Livestock-specific micro-level data needed • • • • Agricultural and livestock census data Sample surveys with specific scope Routinely collected data on prices LSMS multi-purpose surveys • LSMS-ISA & Livestock Survey Module • Information from different datasets can be combined, allowing to impute mean projections of livestock activities (e.g. Behnke 2010) Seite 7 Datum Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  9. 9. LSMS-ISA: Once source for all? • Living Standard Measurement Study (World Bank) • • Nationally representative household survey Early versions: little information on livestock, e.g. insufficient information on animal products, their main buyer and costs Since 2009/10: LSMS-ISA (Integrated Survey on Agriculture) • • • Seite 8 Datum Panel data approach Ethiopia, Tanzania, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda. Mali will follow… Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  10. 10. LSMS-ISA: Data availability and disaggregation • Household income categories can be considered • Very good coverage: Livestock production, own consumption and savings • Factors • • • • Taxes • • Mostly not collected for household sales Inter household transfers • • Labor separable: Agricultural &Non-Agricultural Labor Capital: in some surveys, livestock can be attributed to purpose Input costs often not available for livestock products Lacking data on agricultural products transferred Final market demand • Seite 9 Datum Disaggregation by buyer sometimes possible but not amount/value Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  11. 11. Possible improvements for databases from CGE view • Questionnaire design: • • • Questions on production structure, input sources and buyers of livestock output • • • Do not provide the option to choose vague units that cannot be converted into the metric system, provide conversion factors Questions on main buyer of animal products should not allow answers that indicate the location of the selling point Input costs particularly for animal products incomplete and not separated by input provider Some surveys ask for main buyer, but best would be to indicate the amount and value of sales to each buyer Collect data on taxes and livestock-related subsidies Seite 10 Datum Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  12. 12. Outlook and Africa specific challenges • CGE can measure the effect of livestock on whole economy • • • Recent LSMS-ISA studies include much usable data for CGE • • In many countries not much changes needed to become a crucial data source for macro-modeling Panel data collection of LSMS-ISA • • E.g. analyses on poverty or labor migration 2nd step: Partial equilibrium models can provide detailed results for livestock market Data of same household from several time periods allow modeling effect of (positive and negative) savings on livestock productivity and welfare Challenge: significance of informal trade flows Seite 11 Datum Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa
  13. 13. Thank you christian.kuhlgatz@ti.bund.de Thünen Institute of Market Analysis Seite 12 Datum www.ti.bund.de Dr. Christian H. Kuhlgatz Linking household data to agricultural models: Livestock in Africa

×