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Will Finland be a Forerunner in Decarbonizing the Transport Sector?


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Will Finland be a Forerunner in Decarbonizing the Transport Sector?

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Will Finland be a Forerunner in Decarbonizing the Transport Sector?

  1. 1. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD Will Finland be a Forerunner in Decarbonising the Transport Sector? IEA ETSAP Workshop on Decarbonising the Transport Sector, 12th November 2017, Zürich Tiina Koljonen & Antti Lehtilä Place for a photo (no lines around photo)
  2. 2. 218/12/2017 2 Starting point  The EU has set new 2030 targets for greenhouse gas reduction in the burden sharing sector (e.g. non-ETS) for each of its Member States  For Finland the new target is -39% GHG reduction compared with 2005 level (the 2020 target was -16% compared with the 2005 emissions)  New energy and climate strategy as well as medium term climate plan for Finland were approved in 2017  These include concrete measures to reach both the EU and national energy and climate targets by 2030
  3. 3. 318/12/2017 3 Impact assessments of national energy and climate policies were carried out in a multidisciplinary research project with five research organisations and more than 10 sectoral and integrated assessment models Transport, Buildings, Agriculture, Waste manag. Energy systems, GHG emissions National economies, economical structure Regional economies in Finland Health Forest industries, Wood use, Land use Modelling framework to study the impacts of policies Impacts on environment, nature, air emissions Scenario analysis Carbon sinks TIMES-VTT Sector models
  4. 4. 418/12/2017 4 Transport accounts for 20% of Finland’s GHG emissions and also has the greatest potential for GHG mitigation in the non-ETS sector MtCO2eq. Other GHGs Other CO2 Transport CO2 Industry CO2 Energy CO2
  5. 5. 518/12/2017 5 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2020 2025 2030 Emissionreduction,ktCO2eq. Waste management Agriculture (non-energy) F-gas emissions Housing, service & agriculture buildings Work machines Domestic transport Industry Waste-to-energy plants Energy sector GHG emissions of the transport sector should be halved from the 2005 level to reach the non- ETS target in 2030 2005 reference level ”Official WAM” GHG emissions of domestic transport
  6. 6. Prime Minister Siplä’s Governmental Programme  New energy and climate targets for 2030  The share of renewable energy above 50% from final energy consumption (EU2020 target 38%, which is already reached)  Reduce the use of mineral oil by 50% (compared with 2005 level)  Increase the share of domestic energy sources above 55%  Phase out of coal in energy production  Increase the share of renewables in transport to 40% (2020 target is 20%, which is already reached) ⇒Most of these targets have direct or indirect impacts on transport sector
  7. 7. 718/12/2017 7 Mobility as a Service (MaaS)  A long-term aim pursued in transport policy is a change that would turn mobility into a service  Finland is a pioneer in this "mobility as a service" thinking  A parliamentary committee was established in 2016 Physical mobility and digital services should merge into a high-quality door-to-door service  Thus, the responsibility for innovations and service development lies with the private sector VTT’s robot cars Marilyn and Martti Full automation is still some way off
  8. 8. 818/12/2017 8 Two core scenarios: WEM & WAM  WEM (With Excisting Measures) scenario assumes existing Finnish national policies and measures and EU 2030-policy targets for the rest of the EU  WAM (With Additional Measures) scenario assumes the EU 2030- policy targets for Finland. Following measures have been approved:  Biofuel blending obligation will be increased to 30% in road transport (average in 2030), and additionally 10% for work machine diesel use and heating oil use in buildings  Electric cars at least 250,000, gas fueled cars at least 50,000 in 2030  Waste incineration plants moved to ETS sector around 2022  Flexible mechanisms are used to cover 2% points of the effort sharing non- ETS sector emission reduction target  The ETS price level is expected to be 15 €/tonne in 2020 and 30 €/tonne in 2030 both in WEM and WAM, energy commodity prices are endogenous
  9. 9. 918/12/2017 9 National policies and measures by 2030 to reach both the RES and GHG targets in the transport sector  30% biofuel blending obligation in road transport:  New investments on advanced biofuel production plants (total new capacity app. 600 000 ktoe/a), which will use domestic raw materials (e.g. mainly wood residues but also other biowastes, and other raw materials)  Increase the number of electric vehicles up to 200 000 and gas fuelled vehicles up to 50 000  No agreed policies yet how to do this  Increase of energy efficiency of the vehicles and the whole the whole transport system  New EU regulations, MaaS, increase of public transport, walking & cycling, efficiency & logistics of heavy transportation, etc. etc.
  10. 10. 1018/12/2017 10 National and EU level policies and strategies will define the mitigation path up to 2050 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GHGemissions(excl.LULUCF),MtCO2e Inventory 2 degree scenario -40% GHG reduction (EU target) -55% renewable target -40% renewables in transport -Phase out of coal -Halving the use of mineral oil -20% GHG reduction (EU target) -38% renewable target -20% renewables in transport -80-95% GHG reduction (EU and national target)
  11. 11. 1118/12/2017 11 Large share of RES growth is happening without any policies due to growth of forest industries => Opportunities but also challenges for advanced biofuel production 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 20302025202020152010 Renewableprimaryenergy,PJ WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM Ambient Solar Wind Hydro Waste Bioliquid imports Agrobio Black liquor Wood Renewable primary energy WEM vs. WAM
  12. 12. 1218/12/2017 12 Note: Only focal fractions of total oil consumption included, as defined in government programme 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 20302025202020152010 Mineraloilproductsconsumption,PJ WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM WEM WAM Work machines Transport Buildings & agricult Industry Power and heat Oil consumption by sector (government’s definition) Fossil oil is mainly replaced by advanced biofuels but also due to electrification
  13. 13. Wood consumption: 2013 vs. 2030 WEM vs. WAM not a big issue except in public debate 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2013 2030 Wood,millionm3 WEM WAM SNG* Liquid fuels Solid energy use Recovery boiler New fibre products Paper pulps Wood products * SNG=synthetic natural gas from wood
  14. 14. 1418/12/2017 14 Forest sinks are halved but returned back due to forest renewal (Source: National Resource Institute of Finland) After the latest inventory of the forest stock, the increase of forest sinks is larger than in the below figure Impacts of 2030 strategies Maximum sustainable use of wood Low industrial use of wood
  15. 15. 1518/12/2017 15 Major uncertainties and pain points  EU policies:  Sustainability criteria of wood => delays in investments in Finland  LULUCF policies => how carbon sinks are calculated (e.g. baseline)  New RES markets based on RED2 => investments could move to other EU countries  National policies  How to ensure early enough investments, especially for biofuel plants  How to ensure that Finland will have 250 000 electric vehicles by 2030 (today less than 1000)  How to ensure that our transport system will become more efficient (e.g. the growth of transport demand should be flattened)  How to ensure social equality of people living in rural areas
  16. 16. 1618/12/2017 16 New opportunties from VTT in collaboration with Lappeenranta University of Technology  Fuels can be made from air … and food from electricity
  17. 17. Additional information Tiina Koljonen Research Team Leader Energy systems and Climate Tel. 050 359 9549