TIMES-America Latina y el Caribe: a TIMES model dedicated to South America and the Caribbean

1. Sebastien POSTIC, Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAIZI
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University,
Centre for Applied Mathematics, Sophia Antipolis, France
Chair Modeling for sustainable development
TIMES-America Latina y el Caribe:
a TIMES model dedicated to
South America and the Caribbean
November 17-19, 2014 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting
UN City, Copenhagen, Denmark

2. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 20142/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
T-ALyC: Autonomous model but TIAM compatibility
• RES similarities
• Base year: 2010
• Disaggregation
– Regional realism:
main regional
issues
– World feedback
with TIAM-FR: no
more than 10-12
regions for
computational
burden

3. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 20143/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Primary energy consumption
(BP statistical Review 2012)
Brazil: the continent heavyweight
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
Venezuela
Peru
Chile
Ecuador
Cuba
DominicanRepublic
Guatemala
PuertoRico
CostaRica
Panama
Bolivia
Uruguay
ElSalvador
Paraguay
RestofCentralAmerica
GDP of LAC countries (source CIA World Factbook)

4. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 20144/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Brazil: A twofold country
The Sul and Sudeste Regions together
represent:
• 56% of Brazil population
• 72% of GDP (2009)
• 65% of electricity consumption
• 90% of oil production
• 90% of oil reserves,
• 75% of gas reserves
But:
• 35% of hydro reserves
• 30% of soybean production
• 18% of territory
=> Two different energy systems with interconnection issues

5. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 20145/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Bolivia–Paraguay-Uruguay: Interconnection states
Paraguay: electricity (2009)
• 6,000 GWh consumed
• 45,000 GWh exported
(CIER, 2011)
(YPFB, 2012)
 Bolivia: gas network
• Regional hub for gas
between Brazil and Argentina

6. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 20146/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Other main regions
Electric interconnections in
Central America
(Source CIER)
• Central America and the Caribbean:
– A galaxy of micro-states, with a small economic weight
– Interconnecting with Mexico and Colombia
• Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia:
– Three major actors whose interests are not aligned
• Chile, Peru, Equator:
– Separated from the rest of the continent by the Andes
– Chili/Argentina, Chili/Peru => complicated
relationships

7. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 20147/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
T-ALyC: regional disaggregation

8. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 20148/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Including (right) or not (left) biomass and solar resources
Energy resources potentials

9. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 20149/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Interconnections
AND/BPU
-> 2,5 TWh/an
BPU/BSE
-> 128 TWh/an

10. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201410/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Electricity production

11. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201411/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Electricity production
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ARG BSE BWC CHL COL VEN
Electricity production by source (PJ)
WIND
OIL
NUCLEAR
IMPORTS
HYDRO
GAS
COAL
BIO

12. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201412/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Regional trade of electricity
All periods
AND-BPU trade in 2020, at its strongest: 70PJ/year

13. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201413/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Ongoing developments
• Interconnections versus hydro
uncertainties
• Climate targets versus growth
uncertainties
• Linking with TIAM-FR

14. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201414/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Thank you for your attention!
Don’t hesitate to contact Sebastien POSTIC for further information:
sebastien.postic@mines-paristech.fr

15. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201415/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
CSA end-use sectors in TIAM
Final energy demand by sector
TIAM-FR, 2012
Agriculture
Sector
4%
Commercial
Sector
10%
Transport
Sector
27%
Residential
Sector
17%
Industry
Sector
41%
Other Non-
specified
1%
(This demand does not take into account the last end-use process (e.g. car) that converts
final energy into energy service)

16. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201416/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Energy resources potentials

17. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201417/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Primary energy production
2010 2050

18. 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 201418/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Electricity generation
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Electricity output in T-ALyC (PJ)
WIND
SOLAR
OIL
NUCLEAR
MEXICO
HYDRO
GAS
COAL
BIO
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Electricity output in TIAM- CSA (PJ)
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SOLAR
OIL
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GEO
HYDRO
GAS
COAL
BIO